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Post by joemagruder on Sept 14, 2016 5:44:07 GMT -8
Is a summer drop usual - no school, vacations in general?
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expo
Junior Member
Posts: 71
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Post by expo on Sept 14, 2016 7:52:35 GMT -8
It hasn't been in the past. This is for just last year and just two lines, but this matches past years/other lines as well. isotp.metro.net/MetroRidership/IndexRail.aspxExpo Period Weekday Saturday Sunday 2014/10 31,362 23,752 16,729 2014/11 30,679 22,941 16,578 2014/12 30,262 22,751 16,997 2015/01 30,137 22,513 16,489 2015/02 30,191 22,221 16,055 2015/03 30,000 21,432 16,009 2015/04 29,917 20,628 16,254 2015/05 29,801 20,767 16,169 2015/06 30,507 21,864 16,185 2015/07 30,685 22,321 16,729 2015/08 30,221 22,974 17,027 2015/09 30,163 23,287 16,999 2015/10 30,315 22,398 17,066 Gold.. 2014/10 44,891 29,123 24,702 2014/11 45,010 29,692 23,954 2014/12 44,707 29,550 23,696 2015/01 44,312 29,933 23,523 2015/02 44,362 29,686 23,157 2015/03 43,631 29,859 23,050 2015/04 41,962 28,838 23,494 2015/05 41,248 28,305 24,345 2015/06 43,087 29,406 24,794 2015/07 44,211 29,010 25,559 2015/08 43,829 29,933 25,744 2015/09 44,931 29,261 26,060 2015/10 45,984 29,729 25,419
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Post by exporider on Sept 15, 2016 14:05:07 GMT -8
Expo August ridership is essentially flat from July. I'm a little surprised the 3 car trains haven't given it a bump. However they went from a 10 minute to a 20 minute headway in the evenings. Also I still come across more 2-car sets than I'd like to see. The three-car trains weren't consistently in service until the 2nd or 3rd week of August, so it may have taken some time for people to realize that they have less to worry about finding a seat. Also, it's difficult to take the monthly ridership on Metro Rail lines seriously because of the approach they use to estimate the ridership. First, they base the ridership estimates on a small sample of manual counts taken on trips throughout the month. Realizing that the sample is too small to create reliable estimates for the month, they then use a six-month rolling average to get the estimates to be more consistent. As a result they lose track of short term or seasonal variations. For example, I've noticed in the past that Saturday ridership on Expo doesn't show a peak during the fall months when USC football should add ~10,000 riders on game days. Unfortunately, we'll probably have to wait a few more months to get enough information to understand the full ridership impacts of Expo Phase 2. But we'll probably never have enough information to judge the incremental affects of the variables that are affecting ridership, such as two-car trains and school schedules.
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expo
Junior Member
Posts: 71
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Post by expo on Oct 10, 2016 9:11:22 GMT -8
Expo ridership down for a 3rd month in a row.
Weekday Saturday Sunday 2015/09 30,163 23,287 16,999 2015/10 30,315 22,398 17,066 2015/11 30,830 22,364 17,318 2015/12 30,371 22,142 16,321 2016/01 30,510 21,156 15,464 2016/02 30,785 21,671 15,701 2016/03 30,386 21,074 15,144 2016/04 29,047 21,945 15,965 2016/05 39,237 31,759 34,055 2016/06 45,876 34,844 35,995 2016/07 43,199 34,440 31,617 2016/08 43,015 35,560 32,503 2016/09 41,518 34,361 31,784
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Post by exporider on Oct 10, 2016 11:35:12 GMT -8
Expo ridership down for a 3rd month in a row. Weekday Saturday Sunday 2015/09 30,163 23,287 16,999 2015/10 30,315 22,398 17,066 2015/11 30,830 22,364 17,318 2015/12 30,371 22,142 16,321 2016/01 30,510 21,156 15,464 2016/02 30,785 21,671 15,701 2016/03 30,386 21,074 15,144 2016/04 29,047 21,945 15,965 2016/05 39,237 31,759 34,055 2016/06 45,876 34,844 35,995 2016/07 43,199 34,440 31,617 2016/08 43,015 35,560 32,503 2016/09 41,518 34,361 31,784 I don't know what to make of the ridership drop. The service has been better and there are more seats available, so I was expecting a ridership bump. I can confirm from my observations that ridership appears to be down, but I was hoping that it just seemed to be down because there is less crowding with the consistent three-car service. But the good news is that ridership is still more than 40% higher year over year from before the extension opened, whereas Gold Line ridership is only 16% higher YOY after the Azusa extension.
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Post by levisimons on Oct 10, 2016 20:23:01 GMT -8
You can count me as one of the people that stopped riding the Expo line regularly. It's simply slower for me to go from Koreatown to USC using the Expo line after connecting from the Purple line. That might change once the Expo line frequency is bumped up to every six minutes, but I've grown frustrated with our use of at-grade rail for this reason. An at-grade train is just a very expensive bus. The 757 is an easier go right now.
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Post by culvercitylocke on Oct 11, 2016 15:10:32 GMT -8
You can count me as one of the people that stopped riding the Expo line regularly. It's simply slower for me to go from Koreatown to USC using the Expo line after connecting from the Purple line. That might change once the Expo line frequency is bumped up to every six minutes, but I've grown frustrated with our use of at-grade rail for this reason. An at-grade train is just a very expensive bus. The 757 is an easier go right now. Don't the Vermont bus routes have a ridership of like 65000? so given the bus headways it totally makes sense that you'd use the bus.
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Post by fissure on Oct 11, 2016 21:39:00 GMT -8
The passenger miles statistics are pretty suspect: according to them, the average ride length is identical to 6 significant figures before and after. They definitely need to recalibrate.
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Post by exporider on Oct 12, 2016 11:07:22 GMT -8
The passenger miles statistics are pretty suspect: according to them, the average ride length is identical to 6 significant figures before and after. They definitely need to recalibrate. All of the ridership statistics are suspect, especially since Metro uses a 6-month rolling average of sampled trips to report the ridership data. I also noticed what you mentioned the average trip length, which also applies to the Gold Line. I'd much rather if Metro would leave the data filed blank if they don't know what the actual values are.
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Post by cygnip2p on Oct 12, 2016 12:47:50 GMT -8
Should also be noted that I beleive the P3010 include the IR passenger counters used in other modern designs, a first for Metro. Not sure if they are using them in the ridership estimates yet.
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Post by exporider on Oct 13, 2016 9:09:48 GMT -8
Should also be noted that I beleive the P3010 include the IR passenger counters used in other modern designs, a first for Metro. Not sure if they are using them in the ridership estimates yet. It doesn't look like they've made any change to their ridership reporting approach for rail lines, which appears to be neither transparent nor reliable. Unlike bus ridership, which can be counted accurately from taps and payments at fare boxes, rail routes don't have a reliable and comprehensive counting mechanism available. Just using taps doesn't work for two reasons: 1) some riders don't tap; and 2) some stations serve more than one route so the tap doesn't tell which route is being used. From what I've heard Metro only uses manually collected data from a sampling of trips each month. Since the sample is so small, and since the variation between train trips can be relatively large, Metro realized several years ago (2012?) that the data that the monthly ridership data that they were reporting was so inconsistent that they needed to change their approach. They took the easy approach of reporting the average ridership from a six-month period, instead of an expansion of the actual data that they count from each month. The result is ridership data that is more consistent from month to month, but which lacks any of the information that we need to understand short term or seasonal impacts of schools, weather or special events like football games. Metro needs to revise their ridership reporting approach to take into account more of the data sources that they have available, including taps, IR counters (where available), revenue, and manual counts.
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Post by exporider on Dec 11, 2016 19:38:10 GMT -8
New ridership data for November finally shows a bump in Expo riders, jumping more than 5,000 month-over-month to 47,544. This is strange because the ridership loads don't seem much different than in October. I suspect that the reason for the latest bump is because Metro finally has 6 months of ridership on the Phase 2 extension to show in their data. It's very frustrating that Metro doesn't report more reliable ridership data to allow us to analyze and understand seasonal and other short-term variations.
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Post by bzcat on Dec 14, 2016 16:21:43 GMT -8
Until Metro implement a true "tap-in/tap-out" system with sterile zones in all the stations, we are never going to have accurate ridership data.
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Post by tonyw79sfv on Jan 10, 2017 12:55:20 GMT -8
December 2016 ridership stats:
Expo: 54,073 Gold: 51,311
720 bus: 29,065 (Expo phase 2 really took a hit on the 720 bus' ridership).
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Post by darrell on Jan 15, 2017 11:41:11 GMT -8
December 2016 ridership stats: Expo: 54,073 Gold: 51,311 720 bus: 29,065 (Expo phase 2 really took a hit on the 720 bus' ridership). For comparison the Mid-City/Westside Transit Corridor Draft EIS/EIR, released 4/6/2001 -- the last Metro document to estimate full-length ridership for Expo LRT -- projected 51,400 daily boardings in 2020 (Table 5-5). So Expo exceeded its long-term target only seven months after opening to Santa Monica. Metro's chart with added annotations for Decembers of 2015 and 2016:
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 16, 2017 16:31:59 GMT -8
This is exciting indeed. It fell to around 53,000 in January and February. Actually the last document to predict the Expo ridership was the FEIR and the prediction was 64,000 for 2030. We aren't quite there yet but hopefully when they start running three-car trains, we'll see a boost in the ridership. It looks like this boost was caused by the 6-minute headway.
Period Estimated weekday ridership Estimated Saturday ridership Estimated Sunday ridership
2016/02 30,785 21,671 15,701 2016/03 30,386 21,074 15,144 2016/04 29,047 21,945 15,965 2016/05 39,237 31,759 34,055 2016/06 45,876 34,844 35,995 2016/07 43,199 34,440 31,617 2016/08 43,015 35,560 32,503 2016/09 41,518 34,361 31,784 2016/10 42,344 33,266 30,838 2016/11 47,544 33,074 34,374 2016/12 54,073 34,742 43,819 2017/01 53,473 32,177 44,252 2017/02 55,388 31,018 38,625
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 17, 2017 11:24:29 GMT -8
Actually, looking at the numbers again, February ridership is 55,388.
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Post by exporider on Apr 11, 2017 13:58:45 GMT -8
Metro just posted another huge jump in Expo ridership in March, up to 59,931 average weekday riders. We're now almost double the ridership from before the Phase 2 extension. Meanwhile, Gold Line ridership is stagnant at 51,195. As always, take this data with a grain of salt, given the six-month averaging of the rail ridership data.
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Post by masonite on Apr 12, 2017 14:16:30 GMT -8
Metro just posted another huge jump in Expo ridership in March, up to 59,931 average weekday riders. We're now almost double the ridership from before the Phase 2 extension. Meanwhile, Gold Line ridership is stagnant at 51,195. As always, take this data with a grain of salt, given the six-month averaging of the rail ridership data. On the other side, the Blue Line continues to fall and the Green Line ridership continues to go over a cliff. Down over 30% from its peak and its lowest level in well over a decade.
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Post by TransportationZ on Apr 13, 2017 11:18:25 GMT -8
Metro just posted another huge jump in Expo ridership in March, up to 59,931 average weekday riders. We're now almost double the ridership from before the Phase 2 extension. Meanwhile, Gold Line ridership is stagnant at 51,195. As always, take this data with a grain of salt, given the six-month averaging of the rail ridership data. On the other side, the Blue Line continues to fall and the Green Line ridership continues to go over a cliff. Down over 30% from its peak and its lowest level in well over a decade. You know it's bad when even the ghetto lines are bleeding ridership. Gold FE also really hasn't added too many riders. We'll also have to see how Metro charging for parking in the SFV stations will affect Red Line ridership. When the city of Rancho Cucamonga started charging for Metrolink parking, 20% of the ridership vanished into thin air. Transit ridership on all fronts(Bus and Rail) is looking pretty grim, except for Expo.
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expo
Junior Member
Posts: 71
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Post by expo on Apr 13, 2017 13:21:32 GMT -8
Imagine how high Expo ridership would be if they introduced signal preemption throughout and moved ahead with undergrounding the Pico section...
I'm hopeful that Blue line ridership will increase as Metro improves security and travel time through grade separations. Although I think there's a relatively low ceiling as long as the section west of Willow is encountering frequent red lights.
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Post by masonite on Apr 13, 2017 13:55:27 GMT -8
On the other side, the Blue Line continues to fall and the Green Line ridership continues to go over a cliff. Down over 30% from its peak and its lowest level in well over a decade. You know it's bad when even the ghetto lines are bleeding ridership. Gold FE also really hasn't added too many riders. We'll also have to see how Metro charging for parking in the SFV stations will affect Red Line ridership. When the city of Rancho Cucamonga started charging for Metrolink parking, 20% of the ridership vanished into thin air. Transit ridership on all fronts(Bus and Rail) is looking pretty grim, except for Expo. I doubt charging for parking will have any real effect on ridership. The lots are full now and even assuming that there are no cars parking for free and going to other businesses, I imagine the lots will still be fairly full. A few people might switch to taking the Orange Line (they have free park and ride at many stations). Of course, the vast majority of people on the Red Line do not park anyway. There might be a small effect on ridership in abnormal hours (weekends, late at night, etc...) In comparison, Expo has limited parking and it is all pay now. Culver City parking went completely away for now (300 spaces will eventually return), and ridership seems fine.
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Post by bzzzt on Apr 13, 2017 15:56:13 GMT -8
It's bad on the Green and especially Blue because of the security saturation... Freeloaders and vendors are getting attention from Johnny Law. I figure it'll be depressed for a while if Metro keeps up the enforcement, but it's better for everyone in the long run.
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Post by cygnip2p on Apr 13, 2017 18:12:49 GMT -8
We really gonna do the dogwhistle racism thing here on a transit board?
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Post by bluelineshawn on Apr 15, 2017 6:15:57 GMT -8
It's bad on the Green and especially Blue because of the security saturation... Freeloaders and vendors are getting attention from Johnny Law. I figure it'll be depressed for a while if Metro keeps up the enforcement, but it's better for everyone in the long run. As a daily green line rider I can't say that I've noticed much decrease. The cars always seem to remain standing room only at rush hour. What did happen was they reduced the headways for early morning trips. Unfortunately the green line is very crowded in the early morning because so many riders work in or around LAX, especially on those early morning trips. What happened was trains were crush loaded for a couple weeks and then it mostly evened out to be the same level of crowded it was previously. So 25% less service evened its way out into 25% fewer riders because there's a maximum level of crowdedness most riders will accept and the green line was already there.
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Post by bluelineshawn on Apr 15, 2017 6:22:41 GMT -8
It's bad on the Green and especially Blue because of the security saturation... Freeloaders and vendors are getting attention from Johnny Law. I figure it'll be depressed for a while if Metro keeps up the enforcement, but it's better for everyone in the long run. Good news. As you mention, Metro announced more security for the blue line as they make the transition to LAPD. I haven't noticed that in the few times that I've ridden, but I have noticed more security on the green line. At Harbor Fwy station they have 2-3 armed metro security. I haven't noticed any difference on the trains.
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Post by TransportationZ on Apr 15, 2017 11:56:29 GMT -8
We really gonna do the dogwhistle racism thing here on a transit board? Not sure what's racist about it. I'm black and I've actually lived in the area served by the Blue/Green Lines with my grandmother (She lives near Avalon Bl and Imperial Hwy) for sometime when I was a child. I remember another member saying "Low income, high crime neighborhood" before on this board. Is that more politically correct? We all know what ghetto means, and I've never seen it as racial thing. I guess we could all sing kum ba ya and pretend like the Blue and Green Lines aren't ghetto, which is oddly enough is why people want more security in the first place. Anyway, back to our normally scheduled programming...
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