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Post by Gokhan on Oct 29, 2013 16:23:37 GMT -8
Phase 2 will run 5-minute peak headways. This will require 56 cars + spare cars. Kinkisharyo's are arriving in the second half of 2015 but I don't know if there will be that many by the end of 2015. So, now, I wonder if a 2015 opening is possible if they really want to run 5-minute headways.
I wouldn't be surprised if Expo Phase 2 ridership hits 100k really quick given the brand-new shiny Kinkisharyo's and 5-minute headways serving West Los Angeles and Santa Monica. They will need very decent bus connections though and they'd better have the TAP working for the Santa Monica Big Blue Bus by then.
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Post by bobdavis on Oct 29, 2013 16:37:39 GMT -8
Out here in Gold Line Country, the current plans call for turning over the Arcadia-Azusa segment to Metro in Sept. 2015. How long between then and revenue service is anybody's guess right now. In both Gold Line and Expo, we're dealing with an extension rather than a brand new operation, so that simplifies things a bit. Looks like opening days for the lines will be within one to three months apart. If we were in England, one of the bookmaking outfits (a.k.a. turf accountants) would probably be quoting odds already.
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Post by Gokhan on Oct 29, 2013 16:57:26 GMT -8
Out here in Gold Line Country, the current plans call for turning over the Arcadia-Azusa segment to Metro in Sept. 2015. How long between then and revenue service is anybody's guess right now. In both Gold Line and Expo, we're dealing with an extension rather than a brand new operation, so that simplifies things a bit. Looks like opening days for the lines will be within one to three months apart. If we were in England, one of the bookmaking outfits (a.k.a. turf accountants) would probably be quoting odds already. To-Azusa operations will need only 14 or 16 new cars (for 6- or 5-minute headways, respectively). So, that should be easy. They could probably give back the old Siemens's to the Gold Line and you wouldn't even have to wait for the new Kinkisharyo's.
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Post by Gokhan on Oct 29, 2013 21:11:28 GMT -8
The Source said: "Under the new contract with Kinkisharyo, 28 of the new rail cars are scheduled to be delivered by 2015 and a total of 62 by May 2016." This means that if they want to start with 5-minute headways, which requires 56 cars running at a time, Expo Phase 2 won't open until early to mid-2016. Expo Phase 1's existing 18-car fleet and the new 62 Kinkisharyo's total 80. This will be enough to open both Expo Phase 2 and Gold Line Azusa extensions (56 + 16 + spares = 72 + spares) by May 2016.
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Post by bzcat on Oct 30, 2013 10:58:18 GMT -8
There would be no reason to wait that long just to do 5 min headways. Political pressure will force Metro to open both lines as soon as possible so I expect Expo II to begin with the current 12 min peak / 10 min off peak headways by June 2015.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Oct 30, 2013 12:05:28 GMT -8
To-Azusa operations will need only 14 or 16 new cars (for 6- or 5-minute headways, respectively). So, that should be easy. They could probably give back the old Siemens's to the Gold Line and you wouldn't even have to wait for the new Kinkisharyo's. I really cannot see the Gold Line having 5 minute intervals east of Pasadena. The density is too low to justify 5 minute intervals with what will be primarily park-n-ride stations (outside of Asuza). There's no big office buildings, recreation zones or housing that is transit dependent for such a service level. I think 10 - 15 minute headways make sense. Most trains should terminate at Sierra Madre. It should operate like the Blue Line, 50% go to Willow and 50% go to downtown LB. Though, for the Blue Line, all of the trains should go to downtown LB as that has a justifiable destination and density.
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Post by Gokhan on Oct 30, 2013 12:25:05 GMT -8
There would be no reason to wait that long just to do 5 min headways. Political pressure will force Metro to open both lines as soon as possible so I expect Expo II to begin with the current 12 min peak / 10 min off peak headways by June 2015. I was thinking of the same thing. There was a lot of political pressure to open Expo Phase 1 as soon as possible and we may see the same thing for Expo Phase 2 and the Metro board might say the staff not to wait for all the new cars. For the current headways, they would need as few as 2 more trains (6 more cars) for the Phase 2 extension, and they may get these sometime around mid-2015.
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Post by masonite on Oct 30, 2013 12:53:00 GMT -8
There would be no reason to wait that long just to do 5 min headways. Political pressure will force Metro to open both lines as soon as possible so I expect Expo II to begin with the current 12 min peak / 10 min off peak headways by June 2015. I was thinking of the same thing. There was a lot of political pressure to open Expo Phase 1 as soon as possible and we may see the same thing for Expo Phase 2 and the Metro board might say the staff not to wait for all the new cars. For the current headways, they would need as few as 2 more trains (6 more cars) for the Phase 2 extension, and they may get these sometime around mid-2015. If they don't get the cars until Mid-2015, then they can't open the line in Mid-2015. What are they going to do pre-revenue and testing the line with? Also, they have to test the cars too. You can't just take delivery of them and put them on the line and start service the next day. Hate to be a downer, but I really think 2016 is more likely for the line.
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Post by Gokhan on Oct 30, 2013 15:04:26 GMT -8
Though, for the Blue Line, all of the trains should go to downtown LB as that has a justifiable destination and density. They don't have enough trains to run every train to Downtown Long Beach during the peak hours -- that's why it's every other train.
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Post by Gokhan on Oct 30, 2013 15:10:44 GMT -8
I was thinking of the same thing. There was a lot of political pressure to open Expo Phase 1 as soon as possible and we may see the same thing for Expo Phase 2 and the Metro board might say the staff not to wait for all the new cars. For the current headways, they would need as few as 2 more trains (6 more cars) for the Phase 2 extension, and they may get these sometime around mid-2015. If they don't get the cars until Mid-2015, then they can't open the line in Mid-2015. What are they going to do pre-revenue and testing the line with? Also, they have to test the cars too. You can't just take delivery of them and put them on the line and start service the next day. Hate to be a downer, but I really think 2016 is more likely for the line. You're forgetting that there are plenty of trains available during the off-peak hours (approximately 9:30 am - 3:00 pm) and that's when they can test the Expo Line. Once they are done with the testing, prerevenue operations, during which they need to run them all day, take only a month. So, they can open the line only a month after they receive the first six Kinkisharyo cars. 8 three-car trains is all they need to run Expo Phase 1 & 2 with the current 12-minute headways and Expo Phase 1 already has 6 three-car trains.
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Post by RMoses on Nov 1, 2013 10:43:23 GMT -8
What date does the poll lock? You should advise so that everyone can hedge.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 1, 2013 11:33:33 GMT -8
What date does the poll lock? You should advise so that everyone can hedge. We'll close it before the opening date becomes too obvious.
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Post by RMoses on Nov 1, 2013 11:43:22 GMT -8
What date does the poll lock? You should advise so that everyone can hedge. We'll close it before the opening date becomes too obvious. OK, Jan 1, 2016 should suffice.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 2, 2013 16:41:52 GMT -8
I don't know why they need to open the line all at once. What would be really cool is if they did a quick environmental assessment now and opened the line to Westwood / Rancho Park in late 2014. They wouldn't even need new trains and you would have the line already reaching Palms, Century City, and UCLA in a year from now instead of waiting until as late as mid-2016. Unlike the Culver City terminus, Westwood / Rancho Park Station offers a switch to switch the trains at the end of the line, therefore speeding up the operations, and there is even a one-train mid-day storage track in Palms.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 3, 2013 9:01:07 GMT -8
I don't know why they need to open the line all at once. What would be really cool is if they did a quick environmental assessment now and opened the line to Westwood / Rancho Park in late 2014. They wouldn't even need new trains and you would have the line already reaching Palms, Century City, and UCLA in a year from now instead of waiting until as late as mid-2016. Unlike the Culver City terminus, Westwood / Rancho Park Station offers a switch to switch the trains at the end of the line, therefore speeding up the operations, and there is even a one-train mid-day storage track in Palms. On the second thought, I don't know how much an environmental assessment could be challenged but there is a good chance that the NFSR opposition would challenge it just for the hell of it, as opposing Expo somehow makes them feel good about life. Therefore, it's probably not worth going through potential legal drama again.
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Post by bzcat on Nov 4, 2013 11:04:57 GMT -8
I believe Phase 2 EIR did not study the impact of a phased opening so that's the answer... it will cost money and more importantly, time, to redo the traffic impact of phased opening. By the time we are done studying the impact of phased opening to Rancho Park, the entire line will be done
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Post by skater on Nov 5, 2013 14:17:03 GMT -8
Though, for the Blue Line, all of the trains should go to downtown LB as that has a justifiable destination and density. They don't have enough trains to run every train to Downtown Long Beach during the peak hours -- that's why it's every other train. wow, I never knew lack of LRVs was such a limiting factor for service frequencies. Even at peak hours, I always seem to see at least a few a.bredas in the yard. Are those in for repairs? Hopefully they keep the nippon sharyos for at least a while. They are going to be needing as much rolling stock as they can get. It would be a lot of fun if they where around when the RC is opened, because you could sit at a light rail station and watch 4 generations of LRVs drive through. Couldn't they transfer a few LRVs from the green or gold lines that get less ridership to the expo/blue so they could run phase II earlier?
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 5, 2013 18:55:37 GMT -8
They don't have enough trains to run every train to Downtown Long Beach during the peak hours -- that's why it's every other train. wow, I never knew lack of LRVs was such a limiting factor for service frequencies. Even at peak hours, I always seem to see at least a few a.bredas in the yard. Are those in for repairs? Hopefully they keep the nippon sharyos for at least a while. They are going to be needing as much rolling stock as they can get. It would be a lot of fun if they where around when the RC is opened, because you could sit at a light rail station and watch 4 generations of LRVs drive through. Couldn't they transfer a few LRVs from the green or gold lines that get less ridership to the expo/blue so they could run phase II earlier? This is the formula: round-trip time + dead time at the origin + dead time at the terminus = number of trains x one-way headwayround-trip time: round-trip travel time from the origin to the terminus and then back dead time at the origin: time an arriving train spends at the origin before its scheduled departure dead time at the terminus: time an arriving train spends at the terminus before its scheduled departure one-way headway: time before the next train in the same direction on the schedule
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 9, 2014 11:45:19 GMT -8
I was thinking how slow is building rail. We were expecting Phase 2 to open in 2013 when Phase 1 was starting to be built. Now, we are looking at perhaps mid-2016 or later. Three years is a huge chunk in a human being's short life.
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Post by Philip on Jan 9, 2014 13:29:14 GMT -8
I think mid-2016 is a bit pessimistic.
After the ever-changing opening date/inflated budget for Phase 1, I doubt Metro wants to risk another failure on those fronts for Phase 2.
Plus, what major delays have they hit? Aside from the faulty bridge foundation (which has been taken care of), the only other potential delay is the delivery of the new cars. The maintenance facility seems to be on-course and track installation is happening, albeit a bit slowly.
I also don't think the arrival of the new cars will cause a problem either. If Metro had to, they could run two-car trains with 12-minute headways for the first few months of operation. Sure, it would be packed during rush hour, but aside from that, the line would run fine.
I've ridden the Expo Line quite a bit after rush hour, and the trains are almost always mostly empty. Phase 2 will add more riders, but not to a point where two-car trains will be burdened outside rush hour.
I'm sticking with Fall 2015 (perhaps November) as my predicted opening.
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Post by masonite on Jan 9, 2014 15:32:43 GMT -8
I think mid-2016 is a bit pessimistic. After the ever-changing opening date/inflated budget for Phase 1, I doubt Metro wants to risk another failure on those fronts for Phase 2. Plus, what major delays have they hit? Aside from the faulty bridge foundation (which has been taken care of), the only other potential delay is the delivery of the new cars. The maintenance facility seems to be on-course and track installation is happening, albeit a bit slowly. I also don't think the arrival of the new cars will cause a problem either. If Metro had to, they could run two-car trains with 12-minute headways for the first few months of operation. Sure, it would be packed during rush hour, but aside from that, the line would run fine. I've ridden the Expo Line quite a bit after rush hour, and the trains are almost always mostly empty. Phase 2 will add more riders, but not to a point where two-car trains will be burdened outside rush hour. I'm sticking with Fall 2015 (perhaps November) as my predicted opening. I originally said May 2016 about 6 months ago. Then a few months ago, it seemed like good progress was being made and Metro has on its documents Jan. 2016, so I went with that. If I had to guess again, though I would say my original estimate of May 2016 is about right. There is virtually no chance it will open in 2015 at this point. Too much work to do as well as testing.
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 9, 2014 15:46:47 GMT -8
Big news from the Expo board meeting today:
Expo Line Phase 2 revenue-operation date (ROD): December 7, 2015 Schedule contingency (maximally allowed delay in the schedule): 167 days Expo Line Phase 2 revenue-operation date (ROD) with schedule contingency: May 22, 2016
So, all this means is that Expo Line Phase 2 is currently estimated to open sometime between these two dates. If all goes well, it will open on or near December 7, 2015. Current estimate for the worst-case scenario is a May 22, 2016, opening.
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Post by RMoses on Jan 9, 2014 16:19:27 GMT -8
Big news from the Expo board meeting today:Expo Line Phase 2 revenue-operation date (ROD): December 7, 2015 Schedule contingency (maximally allowed delay in the schedule): 167 days Expo Line Phase 2 revenue-operation date (ROD) with schedule contingency: May 22, 2016 So, all this means is that Expo Line Phase 2 is currently estimated to open sometime between these two dates. If all goes well, it will open on or near December 7, 2015. Current estimate for the worst-case scenario is a May 22, 2016, opening. 05/22/16? I will take the over.
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f ron
Full Member
Posts: 222
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Post by f ron on Jan 9, 2014 16:25:28 GMT -8
I'm feeling pretty good with my late March estimate. ; )
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Post by RMoses on Jan 9, 2014 16:47:33 GMT -8
My vote was "April - June 2016", looks to be the sweet spot, for now.
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Post by culvercitylocke on Jan 9, 2014 19:20:54 GMT -8
so that would mean end of construction friday june 5 2015, then six months of testing, right?
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 9, 2014 22:48:07 GMT -8
More details:
Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016
Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016
Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion
Note that the project is currently 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days.
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 10, 2014 9:06:37 GMT -8
The Source said: "Under the new contract with Kinkisharyo, 28 of the new rail cars are scheduled to be delivered by 2015 and a total of 62 by May 2016." This means that if they want to start with 5-minute headways, which requires 56 cars running at a time, Expo Phase 2 won't open until early to mid-2016. Expo Phase 1's existing 18-car fleet and the new 62 Kinkisharyo's total 80. This will be enough to open both Expo Phase 2 and Gold Line Azusa extensions (56 + 16 + spares = 72 + spares) by May 2016. More details: Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016 Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016 Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion Note that the project is currently 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days. I don't think they will choose to wait to open the line with 5-minute headways but they will go with 12-minute headways initially. For this purpose, they only need 9 more cars (3 more trains). They should get these by the end of September 2015. After what was reported at the Expo board meeting yesterday, with the project being 100% on schedule or perhaps even better, it's clear that there is nothing preventing a late-November-2015 opening than the arrival of the new rail cars. They don't need the full 150 days for the testing and start-up and this could also start before the substantial-completion date. Since enough rail cars will arrive by September 2015 for 12-minute headways, I think they will still open the line in late November 2015 as they have been planning to do so for years now. So, my personal current estimate for ROD is: Saturday, November 21, 2015, on the UCLA - USC game day in Coliseum. We have way too much information now and I'll have to lock this poll in the coming weeks. So, submit your final estimates for the contest now!
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Post by masonite on Jan 10, 2014 11:22:41 GMT -8
The Source said: "Under the new contract with Kinkisharyo, 28 of the new rail cars are scheduled to be delivered by 2015 and a total of 62 by May 2016." This means that if they want to start with 5-minute headways, which requires 56 cars running at a time, Expo Phase 2 won't open until early to mid-2016. Expo Phase 1's existing 18-car fleet and the new 62 Kinkisharyo's total 80. This will be enough to open both Expo Phase 2 and Gold Line Azusa extensions (56 + 16 + spares = 72 + spares) by May 2016. More details: Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016 Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016 Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion Note that the project is currently 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days. I don't think they will choose to wait to open the line with 5-minute headways but they will go with 12-minute headways initially. For this purpose, they only need 9 more cars (3 more trains). They should get these by the end of September 2015. After what was reported at the Expo board meeting yesterday, with the project being 100% on schedule or perhaps even better, it's clear that there is nothing preventing a late-November-2015 opening than the arrival of the new rail cars. They don't need the full 150 days for the testing and start-up and this could also start before the substantial-completion date. Since enough rail cars will arrive by September 2015 for 12-minute headways, I think they will still open the line in late November 2015 as they have been planning to do so for years now. So, my personal current estimate for ROD is: Saturday, November 21, 2015, on the UCLA - USC game day in Coliseum. We have way too much information now and I'll have to lock this poll in the coming weeks. So, submit your final estimates for the contest now! I'll still stick with May 2016. Remember even if they are 99% done and there is still one issue, the line often can't open. There is still quite a bit of work to do.
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Post by RMoses on Jan 10, 2014 12:09:53 GMT -8
That is my take as well, I see the Terminus holding up full testing; work has slowed down in the last 6 weeks.
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