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Post by spokker on Apr 9, 2010 20:45:58 GMT -8
My biggest concern, from the AA analysis:
This would definitely need to be addressed before a shared alternative is feasible. Double track the LOSSAN Corridor, but is that going to happen in places like San Juan Capistrano?
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Post by jeisenbe on Apr 10, 2010 15:47:04 GMT -8
Spokker, thanks for the clarification. It is hard to keep up with these details. After reading some of the CAHSR blog articles and one of the alternatives analysis reports, I think Metrolink and Amtrak have reason to be unhappy with the plan for 2 fully separate tracks for HSR south of Fullerton. With all the traffic on the Union Station thru Fullerton segment (due to 100 freight trains a day run by BNSF, and a planned 150 trains per day for passenger rail), we definitely will need more tracks in that segment, and it would make sense to reserve some for fast passenger trains. If HSR is not going faster than 110 mph in that segment, it should be able to share tracks with upgraded Metrolink and Amtrak equipment. And south of Fullerton to Anaheim, sharing 3 tracks instead of 4 should work for the number of trains.
I can see how the single-track section of LOSSAN in Orange County could be a problem, though. I think there is room for two tracks (but not four) thru the entire route. But building grade separations and overhead wires south of Irvine would be tough, due to all the expensive houses along the tracks (what were they thinking?!), and the section along the beach in San Clemente.
If we can use the 1 billion for rail upgrades for the rest of the LOSSAN corridor, perhaps HSR could pay to add the extra track and improve signaling in that area, so the Surfliner and Metrolink would be reliable enough to mesh with a tight HSR schedule.
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Post by jeisenbe on Apr 10, 2010 15:51:36 GMT -8
Spokker, I remember that you also expressed skepticism about the ridership estimates for Anaheim (perhaps over at the CAHSR blog?). I agree that we won't need a HSR train every 5 minutes, at least for the next 20 years. However, the estimates for over 20,000 boarding per day in Anaheim make sense when you consider that people in OC and the 909 won't want to take a taxi or drive to Union Station (due to terrible traffic), while Anaheim will be easily accessed from all those freeways that meet at the Orange Crush. Those numbers suggest they will need trains every 15 minutes even in the first 5 or 10 years. One could also argue that since the city of Anaheim wants to build a ridiculously huge train station there, we might as well use it.
If the two tracks from Fullerton to Anaheim can't fit all the trains, perhaps a third track would fit in the right-of-way without taking any adjacent properties. If not, we could have a spartan, 2-platform HSR station at Fullerton. Half of the Orange County-bound trains would terminate in Fullerton, and only two or three per hour would go all the way to Anaheim (likely the express and super-express trains). Later, Anaheim may decide it wants frequent trains badly enough that expanding the right-of-way for 4 tracks will be politically feasible.
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Post by Transit Coalition on Apr 10, 2010 19:03:34 GMT -8
Spokker, I remember that you also expressed skepticism about the ridership estimates for Anaheim (perhaps over at the CAHSR blog?). I agree that we won't need a HSR train every 5 minutes, at least for the next 20 years. However, the estimates for over 20,000 boarding per day in Anaheim make sense when you consider that people in OC and the 909 won't want to take a taxi or drive to Union Station (due to terrible traffic), while Anaheim will be easily accessed from all those freeways that meet at the Orange Crush. Those numbers suggest they will need trains every 15 minutes even in the first 5 or 10 years. One could also argue that since the city of Anaheim wants to build a ridiculously huge train station there, we might as well use it. If the two tracks from Fullerton to Anaheim can't fit all the trains, perhaps a third track would fit in the right-of-way without taking any adjacent properties. If not, we could have a spartan, 2-platform HSR station at Fullerton. Half of the Orange County-bound trains would terminate in Fullerton, and only two or three per hour would go all the way to Anaheim (likely the express and super-express trains). Later, Anaheim may decide it wants frequent trains badly enough that expanding the right-of-way for 4 tracks will be politically feasible. Joe, the estimates are pure lies, mis-truths and distortions. The ARTIC project is a long way off from economic viability and funding. The shared usage option that was adopted by the CA HSRA Board on Thursday would allow 4 tracks from Los Angeles to Anaheim. Metrolink, Amtrak, BNSF and High Speed Trains would share the tracks in a joint usage arrangement. Generally, the freights would be on the outside two tracks and the passenger trains would use the center two, but there would be flexibility to use all four tracks to overtake, pass and keep the overall flow moving. As for needing a 1,000 foot train every 5 minutes, it just isn't within any financial reality. Metrolink and Amtrak could provide 15 or 30 minute service on this segment and provide an effective cross platform transfer at Union Station. The magical thinking by the soon to be departing consultants that have jacked up the costs in this corridor to somewhere between $4.5 to $10 billion is about to be replaced with reality based planning that will deliver a viable product.
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Post by jeisenbe on Apr 11, 2010 5:57:44 GMT -8
"The estimates are pure lies, mis-truths and distortions."
This seems harsh. What makes you think the estimated ridership is incorrect?
My understanding is that CHSRA has been interpreting the text of the law as meaning that they need to be able to run trains every 5 minutes on all parts of the initial route. However, if the law were re-interpreted to refer to the SF to LA section only, there wouldn't be a problem in Anaheim for the initial phase of the project, because they are only planning to run trains every 10 to 15 minutes at most, between Anaheim and LA. (Their long-term plans, including the extensions to San Diego, Irvine and Sacramento may be different, but I have not seen a timetable for service with the whole system built out.)
John Wayne Airport in Orange County has an average of over 25,000 passengers per day (including weekends). Half of those flights are within California. There are also tens of thousands of people driving from OC to Northern California every day. If the high speed trains prove popular, it is reasonable to imagine over 20,000 passengers per day in Anaheim with ticket priced at 50% the cost of a flight, isn't it?
Of course, that amount of demand can be met with just 2 trains per hour most of the day. So I agree that there is no need for dedicated high speed tracks south of Fullerton in the short-term, perhaps even long-term, if the FRA is willing to let us share tracks. I certainly hope we can build this segment for 1 or 2 billion (50 to 100 million per mile, similar to light rail), rather than spending 4.5 billion on separate elevated viaducts and bored tunnels!
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