|
|
Post by Justin Walker on Mar 19, 2010 14:04:27 GMT -8
Trackman, I have not seen any figures showsing 3000 vehicles per lane per hour is possible in free flow. I believe that would results in stop-and-go traffic. Also, the average vehicle occupancy is closer to 1.2 people per car during the commute hours, I believe. Here's a relevant passage from Metrolink's 2007 Strategic Assessment: 2.3 Person Throughput on Metrolink Compared with Freeways
At free flow, a single freeway lane has a capacity of 2,000 vehicles per hour. Assuming average occupancy of 1.1, each lane carries 2,200 people per hour. For the purposes of the following analysis, free flow is assumed. However, this is not the case on most of the freeways parallel to Metrolink lines and at 30 mph, for example, a freeway lane has an average capacity of only 750 vehicles per hour. Our answer seems to lie in a diagram from LACTC's 1992 30-Year Integrated Transportation Plan. (Interestingly, this diagram assumes a lane capacity somewhere between Metrolink's free-flow lane volume and jam volume.)  |
|
|
|
Post by ieko on Mar 19, 2010 15:53:03 GMT -8
That is seriously one of the most awesome illustrations I've ever seen, I want that framed and put on my wall lol
|
|
|
|
Post by trackman on Mar 19, 2010 22:11:26 GMT -8
Trackman, I have not seen any figures showsing 3000 vehicles per lane per hour is possible in free flow. I believe that would results in stop-and-go traffic. Also, the average vehicle occupancy is closer to 1.2 people per car during the commute hours, I believe. You're correct. I was being generous toward freeway capacity so-as to not appear pessimistic or bias'd toward rail transportation. But, that was really only toward average occupancy. 1.5 persons per auto is on the high end. Mathmatically, the practical capacity of a highway lane is 2,000 auto's per hour; however, with some freeways, particularly those predominantly used by commuters... much greater effeciency can be observed - people drive closer together and at relatively consistent speeds. But, as I recall, optimal speed for flow rate is in the neighborhood of 47-50mph. Going slower kills flow... not improve. Faster means people drive much further away from each other... also less effecient. That said, my original point is still the same.... rail transportation still has much greater capacity than a lane on a freeway. |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Mar 29, 2010 11:30:27 GMT -8
Here is another way to look at this, which is from a slightly different perspective. Assuming the following: 1,700 cars per lane per hour, 1.1 people per vehicle, 14 total lanes. So, for mass transit to equal that you would need to have 8 car trains carrying 872 people each at 2 minute headways. Both of those are kind of extreme cases, but we are just comparing capacity, not the normal volume. Given this... Another difference is that the traffic consists of 23,800 vehicles each running an internal combustion engine for 1 hour, versus the 30 8-car trains running for 1 hour on electricity. If the cars are driving 50mph and average 25mpg, then in one hour they each burn 2 gallons of gas. Total gas burned = 23,800 * 2 = 57,600 gallons = 1,371 barrels of gas per hour. If 2/3 of a barrel of oil is refined into gas, then thats 2,057 barrels of oil. Then multiply by: 1. number of freeways 2. number of hours 3. number of cities Think about that for a minute. If the electricity running the trains is renewably generated (think Calgary), it is an even bigger WOW  RT |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Apr 14, 2010 12:25:43 GMT -8
Here are the March numbers. Up over February by nearly 8,000 riders per day. This is generally the trend, with the increase being larger in recent years. With any luck the July 2009 high of 162,720 could be hit sooner rather than later.
The YOY Red/Purple line increase was 4,952.
img]http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/RedLine03-10.jpg[/img]
|
|
|
|
Post by darrell on Apr 14, 2010 15:54:02 GMT -8
Here's a relevant passage from Metrolink's 2007 Strategic Assessment: 2.3 Person Throughput on Metrolink Compared with Freeways
At free flow, a single freeway lane has a capacity of 2,000 vehicles per hour. Assuming average occupancy of 1.1, each lane carries 2,200 people per hour. For the purposes of the following analysis, free flow is assumed. However, this is not the case on most of the freeways parallel to Metrolink lines and at 30 mph, for example, a freeway lane has an average capacity of only 750 vehicles per hour. Coming late to this thread ... but the relevant comparison is to actual behavior of freeways during peak periods, which are below 1,500 vehicles/lane/hour in stop-and-go congestion, not "free flow". Thus I argue that the relevant comparison is around 1,500 people/lane/hour. Here's a citation from pems.eecs.berkeley.edu/Public, based on the PeMS system's real-time data collected from all of California's freeway loop detectors: "The freeway congestion paradox"
Chao Chen and Pravin Varaiya
PeMS Development Group
November 13, 2001
Figure 1 shows the cause and consequence of congestion. It plots speed and flow on lane 1 (the fast lane) in one section of I10-W in Los Angeles. At 5:00 am, there is no congestion—there is a flow of 2,100 vehicles per hour (vph) moving at 60 mph. More vehicles enter and by 5:30 am, the density (which is proportional to the slope of the line joining the origin to the corresponding data point) has doubled causing congestion, and speed has dropped to 30 mph. By 7:00 am, speed is a stop-and-go 15 mph, and the flow has decreased to 1,300 vph. Only at 11:30 am has demand and the resulting density decreased sufficiently to restore the free flow speed of 60 mph. The peak flow occurred before rush hour began; flow was congested throughout most or all of rush hour, measured at 1,300 vehicles/lane/hour. |
|
|
|
Post by jeisenbe on Apr 14, 2010 17:21:33 GMT -8
Darrell, that's even more proof of the need for congestion pricing. We can either move 2100 vehicle per hour with the help of a $1.00 per mile toll during rush hour and carpool incentives, or we can move 1300 vehicles per hour "for free".
As a transit advocate, I know that low freeway speeds at rush hour make subways, metrolink and light rail more attractive. But as someone who occasionally drives places and who wants to see this city succeed, I've got to say that congestion pricing is the real solution to freeway traffic. Nothing else comes close. Though transit will provide a much better transportation option for many who will choose it once the freeways are no longer "free", it will not help those who stay in their cars without also clearing up car traffic thru tolls.
|
|
|
|
Post by jeisenbe on Apr 14, 2010 17:26:23 GMT -8
Those March numbers are amazing. They are only a few thousand (about 6%) below the all-time peak last summer. The last time gas prices were at this level in March was 2007, when ridership was less than 140k. In 2008, when oil was 80% more expensive than now, ridership was about the same even during the mid-summer peak. It looks like a new all-time record will be set this summer, perhaps 10% higher than last year.
Perhaps the economy in Hollywood and Downtown is doing better than I've realized.
Does anyone know if Metro has started running longer trains any time during the day? Are there still plenty of seats at rush hour and mid-day when you ride the Red or Purple line?
|
|
|
|
Post by jeisenbe on Apr 14, 2010 17:35:14 GMT -8
Prediction: the Gold Line Eastside extension has cause a few thousand people to transfer to the Red Line to downtown and points west, instead of taking a bus all the way. A few thousand more have decided to take the train from the eastside instead of driving, and a few thousand more have started riding the red line from other parts of the route.
I predict that ridership growth on the Red/Purple lines will flatten out for a year or so after the Regional Connector is completed, as several tens of thousands of people will be able to avoid a transfer and as a result have faster trips to or thru downtown. Of course, ridership on the original subway may still go up if one phase of the purple line extension opens the same year, but growth would be less than expected in that case. After that transition period, I would expect transit ridership overall to resume growth, as the rapid transit system become more complete and useful, with many of the Measure R projects completed.
|
|
|
|
Post by jdrcrasher on Apr 14, 2010 17:55:17 GMT -8
I predict that ridership growth on the Red/Purple lines will flatten out for a year or so after the Regional Connector is completed, as several tens of thousands of people will be able to avoid a transfer and as a result have faster trips to or thru downtown. Of course, ridership on the original subway may still go up if one phase of the purple line extension opens the same year, but growth would be less than expected in that case. It would really go through the roof if a Whittier extension was built. |
|
|
|
Post by spokker on Apr 14, 2010 18:22:47 GMT -8
|
|
|
|
Post by jeisenbe on Apr 14, 2010 18:29:45 GMT -8
[Spokkers photos show a about a dozen people standing in a full Red Line car, westbound, loading at Union Station at 8:44]
Isn't 8:44 after most people have started work? How crowded is it at 5:30 pm heading west at Metrocenter? Shouldn't we be running trains more often than every 10 minutes?
More frequent service would also encourage more people to use the train. Many people will choose a bus that runs every 5 minutes over a train every 10 minutes, but if you provided trains every 4 minutes people would walk 1/2 mile and brave those stairs, for the more predictable service. It would also cut down on the time you have to spend on those gloomy, spartan platforms at the older red line stations.
Even the Blue Line runs every 6 minutes at rush hour.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluelineshawn on Apr 14, 2010 19:14:08 GMT -8
Let me first consult Elton's red line site (whatever happened to him anyway?). 100% capacity on red line trains is about 59 seated, 110 standing, and 1 wheelchair. It's even higher now on the cars where seats were removed. I think that I see trains at 100% capacity every...maybe...about...never!  I don't think that there are that even many people on red line trains during special events like the marathon or public rallies. Very often I will see a couple dozen people standing during rush hour even when there are several empty seats. Especially when headed towards Union Station/Metrolink. Based on those numbers I'd say that the average train during rush hour is about 50-70% of capacity. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyw79sfv on Apr 14, 2010 19:53:54 GMT -8
Let me first consult Elton's red line site (whatever happened to him anyway?). 100% capacity on red line trains is about 59 seated, 110 standing, and 1 wheelchair. It's even higher now on the cars where seats were removed. I think that I see trains at 100% capacity every...maybe...about...never! I don't think that there are that even many people on red line trains during special events like the marathon or public rallies. Very often I will see a couple dozen people standing during rush hour even when there are several empty seats. Especially when headed towards Union Station/Metrolink. Based on those numbers I'd say that the average train during rush hour is about 50-70% of capacity. I believe you meant Elson, he has blog and Twitter page; he's still conveying the everyday realities of Los Angeles with special attention paid to East Hollywood and Metro. As for the case of Red Line ridership, not counting the power outage mishap that happened today, it would be like 75% in the morning and close to 90% capacity in the late afternoon. I live in SFV and work in East Hollywood, so my daily check on ridership is from NoHo to Vermont/Sunset: 07:29 out of NoHo in the morning and 16:39 out of Vermont/Sunset. In the morning, I'm always in the back car, and there's usually about 3 - 8 standing; for the late afternoon, I'm usually in the third car, and I see about two to three dozen standees. It's a busy line both directions, to NoHo for Orange Line and other bus connections and also Union Station for Metrolink, not to mention Blue and Gold Lines. |
|
|
|
Post by bluelineshawn on Apr 14, 2010 20:38:54 GMT -8
Yes, thanks. I meant Elson.
What you describe with 2-3 dozen standees is only 89 passengers per car (splitting the difference and assuming that all seats are occupied). That's only 53% of capacity. 100% of capacity is 110 people standing.
|
|
|
|
Post by LAofAnaheim on Apr 14, 2010 21:01:21 GMT -8
Isn't 8:44 after most people have started work? How crowded is it at 5:30 pm heading west at Metrocenter? Shouldn't we be running trains more often than every 10 minutes? More frequent service would also encourage more people to use the train. Many people will choose a bus that runs every 5 minutes over a train every 10 minutes, but if you provided trains every 4 minutes people would walk 1/2 mile and brave those stairs, for the more predictable service. It would also cut down on the time you have to spend on those gloomy, spartan platforms at the older red line stations. Even the Blue Line runs every 6 minutes at rush hour. The subway (Red and Purple) runs 4 - 5 minute headways during rush hour between Union Station and Wilshire/Vermont. I think that's very good. I don't think we can get any faster than that! |
|
|
|
Post by tonyw79sfv on Apr 14, 2010 21:13:32 GMT -8
Yes, thanks. I meant Elson. What you describe with 2-3 dozen standees is only 89 passengers per car (splitting the difference and assuming that all seats are occupied). That's only 53% of capacity. 100% of capacity is 110 people standing. I presumably meant "comfortable" capacity, all seats are usually taken within the Hollywood corridor; that 100% capacity you mentioned with more standees than those sitting seems to be like a crushload, which I have experienced many times on the NYC MTA's E train and on the Red Line when one run went missing for the afternoon commute (a single set had to do double duty) The subway (Red and Purple) runs 4 - 5 minute headways during rush hour between Union Station and Wilshire/Vermont. I think that's very good. I don't think we can get any faster than that! That section between Union Station and Wilshire/Vermont with alternating Red/Purple Line trains provides the added capacity and frequency for those transferring from Metrolink, Gold Line, Blue Line, and various Rapid buses like the 720/920, 740, 745, and 754 (a busy and equally frequent South LA route). |
|
|
|
Post by jeisenbe on Apr 14, 2010 22:05:17 GMT -8
Transit planners and Metro officials may call 2-3 dozen standees "53% capacity", but most riders feel that if there are no seats, the train is "full."
While I am happy to stand for 5 or 10 minutes, say from Union Station to Metrocenter, standing for 30 minutes would be no fun at all. Our light rail and subway lines are as long as the regional rail systems of many European cities, where riders expect a seat. In that respect, it is more like BART or DC's Metro than the NY Subway or Paris Metro.
Metro will get better ridership if they assure that seats are available for 80% of the distance the train travels, so no one needs to stand more than 10 minutes or so. Capacity limitations will be seen soonest on the shared Red/Purple tracks and the Regional connector; as long as standing happens only in those areas, I think people will be understanding. But I would not plan for 200 passengers for car in other parts of the rail system.
|
|
|
|
Post by trackman on Apr 15, 2010 4:31:21 GMT -8
Every transit agency measures ridership and produces a 'load factor.' The factor is a ratio of riders to number of seats. One intent of the measure is to provide a snapshot of capacity utilization and to also tell planners if there is too much or too little capacity provided.
I don't know the Red lines load factor they use to tell that... maybe it also includes a combination of funding?? but, typical load factors agency's use are between 1.2 for buses and 1.75 for trains.
I've riden the Red Line many times from Hollywood to downtown. I typically saw the rear cars having a lot more room on them. Middle cars were uncomfortably packed. Sometimes I counted riders and as I recall, I often saw 100 to 120 riders on middle cars, or 40 to 60 on rear cars. And, counted seats at 55.
|
|
|
|
Post by metrocenter on Apr 15, 2010 9:40:52 GMT -8
Here are the boardings per station, for each line, for March 2010:
Red+Purple Lines: 9,218
Blue Line: 3,537
Green Line: 2,675
Gold Line: 1,453
|
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on May 19, 2010 13:01:31 GMT -8
April numbers are up. Up about 1,300 YOY but down MOM.  |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Aug 18, 2010 6:39:36 GMT -8
July numbers are out. They snuck them in yesterday evening with no fanfare. Usually that means that no ridership records were in store. All rail lines were down multiple thousands from June. The summer peak may have come early this year.  |
|
|
|
Post by jeisenbe on Aug 18, 2010 23:26:38 GMT -8
"The summer peak may have come early this year."
Yup, raising the fair will do that.
For you and me, the extra $0.25 per trip, or a few dollars a month, may not be much. But the median Metro rider makes less than $15,000 per year. Red/Purple line riders are a little above that, but there is certainly a percentage of transit users who are barely scraping by, for whom the monthly pass or daily pass is a big expense.
I wonder if those folks walked, biked or just avoided traveling due to the fare increase.
|
|
|
|
Post by metrocenter on Aug 19, 2010 0:18:54 GMT -8
Also, a lot of people are out of work. That would certainly affect the number of people commuting by rail. I know since I got laid off, my number of transit trips has dropped dramatically.
|
|
|
|
Post by metrocenter on Sept 23, 2010 6:48:59 GMT -8
I just did a search on Google maps, in the Hollywood area, and it told me the nearest subway stop (Vermont/Santa Monica). But then when I did the search again, the info about the subway stop was gone.
Hopefully Google will get the kinks worked out of their system, because I think it's a really good thing. I know Metro was being difficult in working with Google, so maybe it has something to do with that.
|
|
|
|
Post by metrocenter on Oct 4, 2010 13:46:41 GMT -8
The New York Times yesterday had an article about Mad Men’s Vincent Kartheiser, who lives in L.A., has no car, and frequently rides the Metro Red Line to the studio (Mad Men is filmed in Downtown L.A.). It's a light profile piece, but worth checking out. www.nytimes.com/2010/10/03/fashion/03With.html?_r=1 Photo by Amy Dickerson for The New York Times |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Oct 18, 2010 7:00:46 GMT -8
September quarterly update: 148,214. The Red Line is the only line having dropped both months since the fare increase. All other lines have seen increased ridership in both months.  |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Jan 25, 2011 7:57:54 GMT -8
End of year 2010 numbers for December.  |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Apr 13, 2011 7:39:31 GMT -8
March 2011 numbers now out: 144,093  |
|
|
|
Post by rubbertoe on Jul 13, 2011 16:36:55 GMT -8
June 2011 numbers are out: 155,975 This is a shade below (-6,673) the June 2010 number. One thing that struck me, is that the additional riders gained with the $4.50 gas price spike in July of 2008 really are sticking around. If you consider the rising unemployment, it is even more impressive.  |
|
