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Post by rubbertoe on Jul 14, 2011 5:54:00 GMT -8
June Numbers: And the larger version: i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/Combined06-11Large.jpgA very good month for the Los Angeles light rail system. Total ridership hit 165,651 which is a new all time high. This is up 1,637 YOY, which had been the previous high. YOY ridership numbers have gone up for 20 consecutive months going all the way back to November 2009. That was when the GLEE opened, so that is no coincidence. With the (hopefully) soon opening of the Expo Line, that string of YOY increases should continue for quite a while, as both the Expo Line and the GLEE will see constant improvement over time. Here are the GLEE specific numbers: Nov-10: +4,643 Dec-10: +2,183 Jan-11: +5,720 Feb-11: +3,317 Mar-11: +3,000 Apr-11: +6,170 May-11: +4,189 June-11: +1,842 Average 3,883 From Wikipedia, the 153,600 average from the 1st quarter, will increase to 161,355 for the 2nd quarter of 2011. If SF stays at 158,200 then we move into second place. Next month the Gold Line will show the results of the decrease in headway times down to 6 minutes during rush hour. I'll note that in the column so as not to lose track of it. RT
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Post by jamesinclair on Jul 14, 2011 14:11:44 GMT -8
Id expect the gold line to exceed green line ridership once expo comes online. Its a transfer that makes more sense than the green line one.
I feel that green line will be stagnant until the regional connector or crenshaw lines come into effect (or its own extension), but even then, it's too isolated to enjoy the network effects of other new lines and extensions.
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Post by erict on Jul 14, 2011 14:53:13 GMT -8
Id expect the gold line to exceed green line ridership once expo comes online. Its a transfer that makes more sense than the green line one. I feel that green line will be stagnant until the regional connector or crenshaw lines come into effect (or its own extension), but even then, it's too isolated to enjoy the network effects of other new lines and extensions. Totally true, although I always love the speed of the Green Line, it needs connections and then it will take off.
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Post by bluelineshawn on Jul 14, 2011 19:04:00 GMT -8
Woah! Not only an all time high for gold line ridership, but isn't that an all time high for the blue line as well?
Edit: I just saw your earlier post that it's not quite an all time high for the blue line, but as mentioned it is definitely within striking distance this summer!
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Post by bluelineshawn on Jul 14, 2011 19:09:31 GMT -8
Totally true, although I always love the speed of the Green Line, it needs connections and then it will take off. The green line is by far my least favorite line. The freeway stations are not designed for humans. They are extremely loud and uncomfortable and I can't imagine that they will ever attract many riders aside from the transit dependent. Also I have driven next to green line trains on the 105 several times in the last couple of weeks and they were not going 65 mph between stations. More like 55.
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Post by masonite on Jul 14, 2011 21:30:01 GMT -8
Totally true, although I always love the speed of the Green Line, it needs connections and then it will take off. The green line is by far my least favorite line. The freeway stations are not designed for humans. They are extremely loud and uncomfortable and I can't imagine that they will ever attract many riders aside from the transit dependent. Also I have driven next to green line trains on the 105 several times in the last couple of weeks and they were not going 65 mph between stations. More like 55. I still think the Green Line has great potential. I don't disagree that the trains may be going 55, but they should be going 65. It is still a fast reliable fully grade separated line that won't have the capacity limitations that Expo and the Blue Line have. The Crenshaw Line should be adding a little bit of ridership, not to mention an actual connection not to mention an HSR-Metrolink connection at Norwalk. Maybe someday something will happen with Vermont. As far as the Freeway stations, I am pretty certain some sort of solution can be made to make them more friendly for waiting. The MTA needs to get on thisas i thought they were trying something out on the Gold Line to allowthe passengers to wait below and hen signal to them to upto the platform just as the train arrives. Of course the best solution is reduced headways from the items I mentioned above.
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Post by rubbertoe on Aug 13, 2011 17:34:37 GMT -8
Wow, this is nothing short of unbelievable. If I didn't know better I would almost say that Metro has to be making these numbers up: And the larger version: i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/Combined2011_07Large.jpgWhere to even start? The left axis had to change because the Blue Line exceeded 90,000 daily riders for the first time ever. The now 90,109 blew away the previous high of 86,150 back in July 2008. The YOY numbers are up 12,564 or over 16% The Green Line came in at 45,259, just missing the all time high, but still up 5,359 YOY and 13%. The Gold Line just keeps getting better and better. July number hit 42,900, a new all time high beating last months previous all time high of 39,112 handily. The 42,900 is up 8,615 YOY or 25% Combined light rail totals are 178,268 which is up 26,538 YOY, or 17%. Here are the GLEE specific YOY numbers: Nov-10: +4,643 Dec-10: +2,183 Jan-11: +5,720 Feb-11: +3,317 Mar-11: +3,000 Apr-11: +6,170 May-11: +4,189 June-11: +1,842 July-11: +8,615 Average 4,408 It's even more amazing that the Red Line just hit an all time high too. July numbers were 171,163 up 16,713 YOY or over 10%. The previous high was 162,720 back in July 2009. You would think something like this would warrant a story in the LA Times. If the Expo line goes over budget $0.05 it is front page news. If some goof ball with too much money sues Metro for "environmental justice" violations because the train is going to destroy the quality of life in his neighborhood it is front page news. But when there are 372k people in LA County riding the trains everyday, up from 328k a year ago, I guess thats not news Bad news is news, good news is not news, or at least it doesn't sell very well... RT
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Post by erict on Aug 13, 2011 19:43:52 GMT -8
where is the "like" button
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Post by masonite on Aug 13, 2011 22:14:02 GMT -8
Those are great numbers.
Interesting that the weekend numbers are not really increasing and the bus ridership is not either at least on a year to year basis. 350k rail ridership is impressive.
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Post by fissure on Aug 13, 2011 22:32:28 GMT -8
I wonder if we're beating SF Muni for light rail ridership now. That should put us at #2 in the country after Boston.
Edit: Derp, this was discussed above. Should've read the earlier posts.
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Post by matthewb on Aug 14, 2011 2:28:47 GMT -8
I wonder if we're beating SF Muni for light rail ridership now. That should put us at #2 in the country after Boston. Edit: Derp, this was discussed above. Should've read the earlier posts. This was discussed regarding ridership during previous months. This time, I expect LA Metro probably beat SF, but we'd have to see this month's SF numbers to be sure. Anyone care to check and update the Wikipedia page?
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Post by matthewb on Aug 14, 2011 2:37:10 GMT -8
Just thought of a few things. There should be a few one off bumps for July, such as Carmageddon. Of course, once people try metro, they tend to like it and keep using it, so one off bumps can lead to longer term ridership, but I think things will almost certainly slip back down a bit for August ridership. Regardless, we'll get a huge boost with Expo opening in a few months.
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Post by macross287 on Aug 14, 2011 7:15:47 GMT -8
This is Great. I think 6 min rush hour head-ways on the gold line is really helping ridership on the gold line itself and the red line which may be seeing higher transfer activity due to the reduced head-ways. Perhaps the lift of the rush hour bike ban is also helping ridership on the system in general. This might explain a little as to why rail ridership is up but bus ridership did not increase (though the bus cuts may be deterring growth as well).
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Post by bluelineshawn on Aug 14, 2011 9:25:19 GMT -8
Just thought of a few things. There should be a few one off bumps for July, such as Carmageddon. Of course, once people try metro, they tend to like it and keep using it, so one off bumps can lead to longer term ridership, but I think things will almost certainly slip back down a bit for August ridership. Regardless, we'll get a huge boost with Expo opening in a few months. Carmageddon was over the weekend and these are weekday ridership stats.
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Post by bluelineshawn on Aug 14, 2011 9:29:44 GMT -8
These numbers are fantastic!
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Post by matthewb on Aug 14, 2011 12:40:07 GMT -8
Just thought of a few things. There should be a few one off bumps for July, such as Carmageddon. Of course, once people try metro, they tend to like it and keep using it, so one off bumps can lead to longer term ridership, but I think things will almost certainly slip back down a bit for August ridership. Regardless, we'll get a huge boost with Expo opening in a few months. Carmageddon was over the weekend and these are weekday ridership stats. Fantastic
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Post by tonyw79sfv on Aug 14, 2011 12:53:51 GMT -8
I wonder if Metrolink is also contributing to the increase as they themselves are gaining ridership (although not as dramatic as Metro Rail). Surprisingly, Metro Orange Line is stagnant, so that isn't the reason for the Red Line's increase; but its 22k riders would have added nicely to our rail numbers - if it were rail! The Blue Line is surprising as the line has been beset by half-hourly nightly frequency and sporadic weekend bustitution for Expo work. Anyways, it's not only the Blue Line that broke the threshold of 90k, but the Gold Line breaking the 40k barrier too!
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Aug 14, 2011 13:33:18 GMT -8
The stat that still surprises me is the Green Line 45K weekday daily boardings! Still exceeds the Gold Line AND has a lack of walkable transit oriented areas. Do people value speed over walkability?
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Post by macross287 on Aug 14, 2011 13:52:15 GMT -8
With the growth of the Gold line Ridership I would not be too surprised to see it break the 50,000 mark with in a year or two, especially with the Expo Line coming online very soon.
The Orange Line's stagnation may be a product of its recent unreliability. Since the Orange Line does not offer true level boarding it is not uncommon for buses to be backed up by bike loadings, and handicap boardings which throws a kink into the systems signal synchronization where buses are held up at red lights for longer times than intended. This results into some buses arriving heavily loaded to some stations (trying to load these buses is not very fun and while others arrive very lightly loaded. These frequent crowded conditions along with the capacity limitations of the system are responsible for its lack of growth.
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Post by thanks4goingmetro on Aug 14, 2011 17:36:25 GMT -8
The network effect on full display With each new segment of rail, all the other rail lines see more riders too. When the Regional Connector is open we'll see the 50+ mile long Blue Line with a ridership over well over 120,000 daily boardings and climbing, nice!
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Post by masonite on Aug 14, 2011 19:58:08 GMT -8
The stat that still surprises me is the Green Line 45K weekday daily boardings! Still exceeds the Gold Line AND has a lack of walkable transit oriented areas. Do people value speed over walkability? The Green Line is fast, grade separated, and reliable. It intersects with some heavy usage bus routes like Western and Vermont, and the heart of the Blue Line. Also, a lot of airport employees who live in South LA do actually use it to get to the airport despite the necessary shuttle. People use it to get across town east-west fast. Given that, it seems everyone hates the Green Line to some degree. To me, it could be such a better line with a real connection to Metrolink and LAX, not to mention some sort of improvement in noise reduction for the freeway median stations. Finally, I think the stations in El Segundo and Redondo could have better transit oriented development around them. When it opened, I remember people saying the Green Line stations here were really in the worst place, and even today they seem to have the feeling of kinda of going through some far back alley here.
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Post by jeisenbe on Aug 14, 2011 22:33:24 GMT -8
I've been one of the 10,000 new riders on the Blue Line, taking it about 3 days a week for the past month. I use my bike to get to the station in Long Beach, and then at the end to my new short-term job in Compton (the new protected bike lanes in downtown Long Beach make the trip to the station 100% easier than before).
It may be true that the trains approach capacity toward downtown at rush hour, but I believe the Blue Line has plenty of room for growth at the south end. Long Beach in particular would see huge ridership growth for trips within our city, if the rush-hour frequency was increased (by extending the Willow short-line trains all the way to the end of the line), and if the trains were given signal priority or a rolling green phase, as in Los Angeles. This would shave 5 minutes off the trip south of Willow; 1/3 of the present 15 minute trip.
Currently I'm better off riding my bike from Willow if I get a short-line train, instead of waiting 5 or 6 minute for the next train. But if the trains had signal priority they would be significantly faster than bikes, or cars on the city streets.
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Post by rubbertoe on Aug 15, 2011 13:29:42 GMT -8
Well, our fellow transit buddy Steve Hymon over at Metro had a post about the ridership numbers: thesource.metro.net/2011/08/15/metro-ridership-update-systemwide-up-over-a-year-ago-and-new-record-month-for-gold-line-but-bus-numbers-remain-flat/Here is the most interesting quote from the article: " Its important to note, however, that buses have automatic counters that tally ridership. Metro Rail does not have those counters and monthly ridership is calculated based on rolling averages of counts done in the past month and and over six months prior. So the July numbers likely reflect earlier trends during the year such as the spike in gas prices this spring." Yes, leave it to a government agency to produce a "monthly ridership" number that doesn't actually show the monthly ridership This explains a lot, like why the gas price increase in the spring isn't showing up until now. It also means that we don't need to collectively scratch our heads anymore trying to figure out on a month-to-month basis what is causing the ridership fluctuations. The short answer to why that is, is because until Metro provides real numbers, or the calculations they use to generate what they call "monthly ridership" numbers, you might as well be using a Ouija board to figure out what is really going on Lets look a little closer at what they have on their website for July Red Line numbers: July 2011 has 21 weekdays, 5 Sundays and 5 Saturdays. One of the Monday's is a Holiday, so if you use the 74,186 Metro has for that day you come up with the following: (171,163*20) + (92,171*5) + (74,186*6) = 4,329,231 So my calculation per Metro's numbers is 4,329,231 versus their stated "Total Calendar Month Boardings" figure of 4,329,229. So, if their stated July ridership isn't actually July Ridership, then why are the Total Calendar Month Boardings so accurate? Unless we have another case of "Total Calendar Month Boardings" not actually representing the number of people who actually got on a train. The funny thing is, they used to have a disclaimer on the ridership page that is gone now. I just checked and I don't have a copy of it unfortunately. It used to say something like "the ridership calculation changed effective August 2007, and now uses actual boarding info versus the previous method...". So, you would think that they would be providing real numbers now. I'm going to e-mail Metro and see what is going on here. There may be an LA Times story coming out of this, maybe just not the kind I had in mind earlier... RT
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Post by rubbertoe on Aug 15, 2011 16:31:59 GMT -8
Made some further progress. It turns out that Metro removed the text that I mentioned on 08-13-11, just two days ago when they updated to the July 2011 numbers. Here is what they removed:
Beginning in December 2007, data received from newly installed Ticket Vending Machines on the Red, Green, and Blue Lines made it possible to begin calculating ridership with much greater accuracy than previously. As a result, it is difficult to find meaning in comparing ridership estimates made prior to that time with the current and extremely accurate estimates.
Ok, so in December 2007 they started receiving data from the ticket vending machines. Everybody who rides is supposed to have a ticket, so you either buy a ticket from a ticket vending machine, drop a token in the ticket vending machine, or you use your TAP card, which presumably they would also be able to detect since they now provide ridership numbers that are "extremely accurate estimates". Steve will pass my information request up the chain of command so we will see what comes back.
Other than the 3 ways to board, is there anything that I'm missing, except for those not paying? If you ride the bus and transfer to rail, do you just get a paper pass, so as to ride the train undetected by electronic means?
RT
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Post by bluelineshawn on Aug 15, 2011 21:09:17 GMT -8
I don't think that they use a rolling average quite as mentioned in the blog. We can see that they don't when new rail lines are opened. I don't know how a rolling average is used to come up with the total number but it'd be interesting to find out.
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Post by jamesinclair on Aug 17, 2011 21:15:38 GMT -8
Good numbers.
Im concerned about the green line though. Drove to/from LAX this past week, and on my westbound trip, saw only 1 train going to opposite direction. On my eastbound trip, not any trains in either direction.
That kind of headway is terrible. Nobody on the highway looks to their side and says "I should have been riding that" and people on the platform are thinking "I wish I had a car"
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Post by jeisenbe on Aug 18, 2011 15:58:17 GMT -8
Other than the 3 ways to board, is there anything that I'm missing, except for those not paying? If you ride the bus and transfer to rail, do you just get a paper pass, so as to ride the train undetected by electronic means? RT, you are right that bus transfers are not counted. The much bigger problem is that monthly passes and day passes are also uncounted. Metro still employs staff (usually those put on light duty due to health problems) to sit on the Tarim and record all boardings. I've talked to a man doing this (he was in street clothes, but his electronic meter looked official). I think Metro uses this counts to estimate total ridership.
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Post by rubbertoe on Sept 20, 2011 6:05:12 GMT -8
August numbers are now out... And the larger version: i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/Combined08-11.jpgAll the lines are off their July record highs, which is entirely unexpected. People would have been hanging out of the doors otherwise The YOY numbers are all positive, so the trend is obviously still up. Blue Line is up 1%, Green Line is up 5%, and the always inspiring Gold Line is up 12%. Gas prices have come down from their recent highs, but are still about $0.70 higher than year ago levels. Overall light rail ridership is up to 165,160 from the August 2010 level of 157,545, or a bit over 5%. The Red and Orange lines are both up about 5% YOY too. Here are the GLEE specific YOY numbers: Nov-10: +4,643 Dec-10: +2,183 Jan-11: +5,720 Feb-11: +3,317 Mar-11: +3,000 Apr-11: +6,170 May-11: +4,189 Jun-11: +1,842 Jul-11: +8,615 Aug-11: +4,351 The GLEE ridership bubble is still inflating, and showing no signs of slowing down. We are a couple months away from the 2 year anniversary of the GLEE opening. There were 28,478 riding then, which has turned into 42,900 in July, thats a 50% increase. RT
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Post by jamesinclair on Sept 20, 2011 19:13:19 GMT -8
Someone should quote the naysayers.
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Post by wad on Sept 22, 2011 3:46:45 GMT -8
Someone should quote the naysayers. "Nay," said a naysayer. There was a headline to that effect in one of the Sim City games (Naysayers say nay.)
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