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Post by jamesinclair on May 8, 2012 9:42:08 GMT -8
We've been talking a good deal about the ridership on the expo line, obviously, as it's new and exciting.
So let's take a guess at to what the ridership is and will be.
The game is simple. Guess a ridership number for
May (first full month of service) July (traditional annual high for lines not orange) September (USC is back)
Here are some numbers to go by from last year to help your guess (rounded)
GREEN May 40,000 July 46,000 September 45,000
BLUE May 80,000 July 96,000 September 84,000
GOLD May 36,000 July 44,000 September 37,500
ORANGE May 25,500 July 23,000 September 36,500
---- Reason Foundation estimates
May 13,000 July 13,000 September 13,000
My estimate: May 12,000 July 15,000 September 19,000
Metro goal: 27,000 after a year
As always, winner gets bragging prize.
Deadline is May 31st. Guesses may be modified before that date.
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Post by jamesinclair on May 8, 2012 9:42:50 GMT -8
This post is where I will post what others guess for easy reference.
---- Guesses as of May 24, may be modified.
MAY 8,900 rubbertoe* 11,317 = Actual 12,000 jamesinclair, masonite, Gokhan revised 13,000 Reason 13,500 bzcat 20,000 Gokhan
*late
Most over estimated ridership
Winners for May are jamesinclair, masonite, Gokhan
-----
July
11,200 rubbertoe 13,000 Reason 15,000 jamesinclair 16,000 Gokhan 17,000 masonite 17,500 bzcat Actual: 18,181 33,000 Gokhan initial guess
All pretty much underestimated ridership.
July winner is bzcat, overall winner so far is masonite
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Post by bzcat on May 8, 2012 10:17:19 GMT -8
May: 13,500 July: 17,850 (I'm assuming the line will reach Culver City in July) Spet: 21,500
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Post by bluelineshawn on May 8, 2012 10:28:42 GMT -8
If the deadline is the end of the month, I'll wait a bit. How will winners be calculated? Total difference, average difference, percent error? I'd suggest average difference.
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Post by jamesinclair on May 8, 2012 10:34:46 GMT -8
If the deadline is the end of the month, I'll wait a bit. How will winners be calculated? Total difference, average difference, percent error? I'd suggest average difference. Perhaps both? Also, you can guess now and simply modify it before the end of the month if anything changes.
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2012 10:44:39 GMT -8
The first week's ridership was 9,000 boardings per day. From my observations, Expo Line ridership roughly doubled this week. So, we seem to be up to 18,000 boardings per day. This is without the Culver City Station and it should easily go beyond the 27,000 prediction once it opens. It may approach or even beat the Blue Line ridership once Phase 2 operations get going.
Interestingly though, the utilization of the really nice La Cienega parking structure hasn't changed since last week -- it's currently at about one third of its capacity. Therefore, it offers a great way to use the line for those who want to drive to the line at any time of the day and any day of the week.
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2012 10:47:12 GMT -8
My estimate: May 12,000 July 15,000 September 19,000 LOL You guessed one hour too quickly, without I posted my observations. We already seem to be up to 18,000. See my post above. Give yourself a second try.
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2012 11:40:00 GMT -8
My guess:
May: 20,000 July: 33,000 September: 45,000
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Post by matthewb on May 8, 2012 14:26:10 GMT -8
If the deadline is the end of the month, I'll wait a bit. How will winners be calculated? Total difference, average difference, percent error? I'd suggest average difference. I suggest 4 winners: the winner for each month, and the average difference.
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Post by masonite on May 8, 2012 14:52:49 GMT -8
My guess: May: 20,000 July: 33,000 September: 45,000 Yikes. 45k? That is all but impossible. That would make it much more crowded than the Blue Line, because the Blue Line is 22 miles vs. 8.7 for Expo. Also, it is much worse than that, because they are running 12 minute headways on Expo so it would be 3-4 times more crowded than the Blue Line. A little odd from someone who said they were all along alone on the train the other day.
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Post by jamesinclair on May 8, 2012 14:56:50 GMT -8
My estimate: May 12,000 July 15,000 September 19,000 LOL You guessed one hour too quickly, without I posted my observations. We already seem to be up to 18,000. See my post above. Give yourself a second try. Ive got a whole month to change my guess, and I will certainly be using your daily reports to mold it That being said, Im going to go with a pessimistic guess for May
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2012 15:27:27 GMT -8
My guess: May: 20,000 July: 33,000 September: 45,000 Yikes. 45k? That is all but impossible. That would make it much more crowded than the Blue Line, because the Blue Line is 22 miles vs. 8.7 for Expo. Also, it is much worse than that, because they are running 12 minute headways on Expo so it would be 3-4 times more crowded than the Blue Line. A little odd from someone who said they were all along alone on the train the other day. I think you had your math a little wrong. Blue Line has the same headway as the Expo Line during off-peak hours; therefore, Expo would have the trains half full as the Blue Line during off-peak hours with 45k vs. 90k riders. During the peak hours, they would be about the same crowded, since Expo has twice the headway. Regarding number of stations, I think most people travel most of the length with the Blue Line; so, it shouldn't change it much. Well, perhaps, 45k is an overestimate, but I think we may already be close to 20k, and that's still many people not knowing about the Expo Line and not having changed their usual transit routes or driving habits. Also, the Expo interim terminal still hasn't opened yet, and the number you're seeing right now is for a line that doesn't have a terminal and is ending in nowhere. When the interim terminal finally opens, they will also change the bus routes, which should also boost the ridership. Yesterday it was nice being the only one in the car for the first two stations, but I am sure I won't have that luxury always, especially when I travel at peak hours. Today the train was much more full.
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Post by bluelineshawn on May 8, 2012 17:11:46 GMT -8
It's hard to estimate ridership by counting people on the train. It's easier and more accurate to count people boarding at each station because that's what the numbers really are - total boardings. 45k daily riders for phase 1 is about 255 riders per train (assuming 176 trains per day). Obviously some of the off peak trains won't come close to that so the rush hour trains would have to average at least 300 riders per train or more realistically maybe 400 people per train. That works out to 33 boardings per station for all trains. Obviously some stations will be lighter or heavier than others, but I can definitely see that happening at some point. Whether it happens in the next few months...hard to say.
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Post by bluelineshawn on May 8, 2012 17:13:41 GMT -8
Not explicitly stated, but we should assume daily weekday ridership. Oddly so far Expo has much higher weekend ridership from what I have seen. Trains were packed last Saturday.
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2012 18:30:13 GMT -8
This evening ridership on the Expo Line was very light again -- only about 10 people per car, corresponding to less than 10,000 boardings per day. But then the morning ridership, as I mentioned before, was good.
It looks like regular commuters are not taking the Expo Line yet. It seems to be mostly casual riders.
So, perhaps I was too enthusiastic about 45k. Maybe 20k - 30k by the end of 2012 is more reasonable.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on May 8, 2012 18:34:24 GMT -8
This evening ridership on the Expo Line was very light again -- only about 10 people per car, corresponding to less than 10,000 boardings per day. But then the morning ridership, as I mentioned before, was good. It looks like regular commuters are not taking the Expo Line yet. It seems to be mostly casual riders. So, perhaps I was too enthusiastic about 45k. Maybe 20k - 30k by the end of 2012 is more reasonable. Haha, well you did predict there was 200,000 on the Expo Line opening day celebration........and it was actually 44,000. So yes, I think the 45,000 was really high. Though I hope the ridership exceeds all of our expectations, I think it will get better over time especially when the casual people use it during off-peak hours for events at the Galen Center, Coliseum, USC, Staples Center and LA Live!.
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Post by masonite on May 9, 2012 10:08:34 GMT -8
May = 12k July = 17k Sep = 20k
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Post by Gokhan on May 9, 2012 11:45:03 GMT -8
Ridership is still steady at very light. Yesterday morning was somehow unusual. Although, today there seemed to be a few more cars in the parking structure.
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Post by joemagruder on May 9, 2012 20:56:14 GMT -8
I would expect Expo line ridership to start slowly because it isn't replacing an existing, heavily used bus line as did the blue line. Rather, it will require a reorientation of travel patterns, more like the Pasadena portion of the Gold line did.
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Post by jamesinclair on May 24, 2012 22:48:58 GMT -8
Dont forget to get your guesses in! Deadline is May 31
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Post by Gokhan on May 25, 2012 8:53:18 GMT -8
My revised guesses:
May: 12,000 July: 12,000 + 4,000 = 16,000 (Culver City and Farmdale) September: 16,000 + 2,000 = 18,000 (USC)
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Post by spokker on Jun 3, 2012 13:50:06 GMT -8
E3 starting Tuesday. I wonder how many on the Westside will park at La Cienega and take Expo in, instead of dealing with convention parking and traffic.
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Post by James Fujita on Jun 3, 2012 15:17:59 GMT -8
E3 starting Tuesday. I wonder how many on the Westside will park at La Cienega and take Expo in, instead of dealing with convention parking and traffic. one would hope a lot. E3 is a giant convention, one of the largest that Los Angeles hosts, and there are electronic game design companies based out of Southern California. still, it depends partially on how well E3 handles the situation and also how well Metro advertises itself to E3. (in general, I think the MTA could promote itself more at LAX) E3 doesn't do a great job of mentioning Metro Rail on its website, concentrating more on getting people from the airport (E3 is an international conference). a lot of convention attendees may be staying at the JW Marriott, so the real question would be if they use Metro Rail to get from downtown to related events in Hollywood.
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Post by benh57 on Jun 4, 2012 23:28:03 GMT -8
I am going to E3 Wednesday. Planning to do exactly that, take expo. I am mostly worried about the Kings -- if they win, i don't want my car being trashed. That, and its easier, cheaper and cooler to take the train!
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Post by wad on Jun 5, 2012 0:54:24 GMT -8
Ben, leave before the game starts to get away from the celebratory rioting
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Post by bzcat on Jun 5, 2012 9:56:54 GMT -8
Kings fan wouldn't know how to riot. They've never won anything.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Jun 5, 2012 10:55:16 GMT -8
If anything, this will be like a tame riot. Kings fans are nothing like Lakers fan.
Downtown News did a survey with all the restaurants/bars in downtown and they confirmed that Kings fans are more polite and better tipping. They said Laker fans were the worst; people who could cause damage.
As an added bonus...it said Kings fans were the most likely sports fan base in LA to public transit than Dodgers, Lakers or Clippers fans.
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Post by thanks4goingmetro on Jun 5, 2012 12:32:46 GMT -8
Now that the Expo Line is opening to Culver City on June 20 with Farmdale, we will see the boost in ridership continue to push further north in bigger gains I believe with the added bus connectivity and additional destinations.
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Post by tonyw79sfv on Jun 5, 2012 23:46:38 GMT -8
E3 starting Tuesday. I wonder how many on the Westside will park at La Cienega and take Expo in, instead of dealing with convention parking and traffic. one would hope a lot. E3 is a giant convention, one of the largest that Los Angeles hosts, and there are electronic game design companies based out of Southern California. still, it depends partially on how well E3 handles the situation and also how well Metro advertises itself to E3. (in general, I think the MTA could promote itself more at LAX) E3 doesn't do a great job of mentioning Metro Rail on its website, concentrating more on getting people from the airport (E3 is an international conference). a lot of convention attendees may be staying at the JW Marriott, so the real question would be if they use Metro Rail to get from downtown to related events in Hollywood. When I was boarding the Red Line from Vermont/Sunset to North Hollywood at 6:41pm, I did notice the train was more crowded with E3 attendees; the Orange Line was slightly more crowded, but at that point I couldn't tell if it was E3-related. I'm sure it's the same story on other parts of the Metro system. This is the beauty of holding conventions at a rail transit-accessible venue. I noticed the same thing during Anime Expo, which is coming up later this month. I am going to E3 Wednesday. Planning to do exactly that, take expo. I am mostly worried about the Kings -- if they win, i don't want my car being trashed. That, and its easier, cheaper and cooler to take the train! E3 ends at 6pm, Kings game starts at 5pm, which means it should end around 8pm-ish. Might as well join the bandwagon and celebrate a possible Kings sweep.
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Post by Elson on Jun 6, 2012 1:07:00 GMT -8
Kings fan wouldn't know how to riot. They've never won anything. That never stopped the Vancouver Canucks fans...They never won the Stanley Cup either, and they STILL rioted last year!
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