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Post by masonite on Oct 4, 2014 7:52:33 GMT -8
Now that administration post was seriously pedantic and tone deaf. Opening the two lines six months apart is not safety first it is laziness first. I thought it was spot on. Sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. The project still has a lot of work to finish. I was in SM yesterday and they have a ton of work there. The project is only about 75% done, so it is a little early to be naming an opening date. Also, the rail cars have to be tested and make sure everything is compatible, which is a big step.
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Post by bzcat on Oct 6, 2014 14:07:52 GMT -8
I took the Expo line this Sunday and it happened to be CicLAvia so the morning east bound trains were extra crowded. Standing room only leaving Culver City and all the way to Expo Park/USC... People were being turned away at the platform at La Cienega, La Brea, Crenshaw, and Western. It's like a preview of what happens if Phase 2 opened with 12 minutes headway.
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Post by masonite on Oct 6, 2014 15:26:43 GMT -8
I took the Expo line this Sunday and it happened to be CicLAvia so the morning east bound trains were extra crowded. Standing room only leaving Culver City and all the way to Expo Park/USC... People were being turned away at the platform at La Cienega, La Brea, Crenshaw, and Western. It's like a preview of what happens if Phase 2 opened with 12 minutes headway. For the USC game on Sat., it worked great. They had a ton of Metro staff at Culver City helping all the first timers and 6 minute headways. CC parking lot was not quite full 3 hours before the game (I went to tailgate too). I guess they could not do the 6 minute headways on Sun., because it probably made more sense to do them on the Blue Line then. Sounds like a lot of people still went to CicLAvia even with the heat. One negative was that the Expo cars were quite hot on Sat. I don't remember what type of car it was, because I was mostly talking to my friends, but I can see why they put the Bredas on the Gold Line as they have nice (but noisy) air conditioning.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 21, 2014 11:47:05 GMT -8
Expo Authority has officially set the start of Expo Line train testing in March 2015, according to a Metro official, who is in charge of train testing. Exact date in March will be provided later. Initial day or two of train testing will be towing of an unpowered light-rail car as usual. Note that starting January 5, 2015, there may be some field trips for train operators and some OCS and track clearance testing using special vehicles. Meanwhile, second P3010 pilot car is expected to arrive in mid-January. Expo Line Phase 2 construction has been falling behind. Knowing the amount of certifications needed to be made during testing, I am now starting to doubt that Skanska will even make their July 10, 2015, contract date for handover to Metro. Gold Line Phase 2A, on the other hand, seems to be ahead of schedule. If all goes well, the earliest Expo Line can open is December 2015 with 12-minute headway. A 6-minute headway cannot open before May 2016. Gold Line should easily be able to open with the current two-car train sets and 6-minute headway in November 2015, as they don't need any new cars. Nevertheless, there should be quite a few new cars ready and tested before then, which could be used as spares.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Nov 21, 2014 11:58:15 GMT -8
I'd be surprised to learn they'd go with 12-minute headways for the opening. They seem very much concerned with creating the best impression possible.
These new dates you're laying out seem much more in line with the progress I'm witnessing up and down the line. At the present rate even a March date for testing a fully powered line end-to-end of phase 2, though doable, sounds like it will be a breathless deadline to make.
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Post by Gokhan on Dec 6, 2014 13:12:09 GMT -8
I am currently estimating a May 2016 opening for Expo Line Phase 2.
Construction has slowed down a lot and seems to be slowing down constantly. There is still a ton of work to be done, with long sections of track and OCS missing, few of the controls in place, and roadway improvements not even halfway done. I don't think Skanska will make their contract date of July 10, 2015. I expect more like a late-2015 completion. With enough cars not being available until April or May 2016, I think a circa May 2016 date makes most sense right now.
On the other hand, I estimate Gold Line Phase 2A to open in November 2015.
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Post by RMoses on Dec 6, 2014 13:41:23 GMT -8
I am currently estimating a May 2016 opening for Expo Line Phase 2. Construction has slowed down a lot and seems to be slowing down constantly. There is still a ton of work to be done, with long sections of track and OCS missing, few of the controls in place, and roadway improvements not even halfway done. I don't think Skanska will make their contract date of July 10, 2015. I expect more like a late-2015 completion. With enough cars not being available until April or May 2016, I think a circa May 2016 date makes most sense right now. On the other hand, I estimate Gold Line Phase 2A to open in November 2015. Nope, too late you are stuck with: Saturday, November 14, 2015.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Dec 8, 2014 9:04:52 GMT -8
I am currently estimating a May 2016 opening for Expo Line Phase 2. Construction has slowed down a lot and seems to be slowing down constantly. There is still a ton of work to be done, with long sections of track and OCS missing, few of the controls in place, and roadway improvements not even halfway done. I don't think Skanska will make their contract date of July 10, 2015. I expect more like a late-2015 completion. With enough cars not being available until April or May 2016, I think a circa May 2016 date makes most sense right now. On the other hand, I estimate Gold Line Phase 2A to open in November 2015. Metro is stating spring 2016 for the Gold Line P2 opening. thesource.metro.net/2014/12/08/clearance-testing-begins-for-gold-line-foothill-extension-project/Where does that put Expo?, I wonder. Would they consider a 'simultaneous' opening or push Expo to summer or fall of 2016?
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Post by Gokhan on Dec 8, 2014 10:34:40 GMT -8
I am currently estimating a May 2016 opening for Expo Line Phase 2. Construction has slowed down a lot and seems to be slowing down constantly. There is still a ton of work to be done, with long sections of track and OCS missing, few of the controls in place, and roadway improvements not even halfway done. I don't think Skanska will make their contract date of July 10, 2015. I expect more like a late-2015 completion. With enough cars not being available until April or May 2016, I think a circa May 2016 date makes most sense right now. On the other hand, I estimate Gold Line Phase 2A to open in November 2015. Metro is stating spring 2016 for the Gold Line P2 opening. thesource.metro.net/2014/12/08/clearance-testing-begins-for-gold-line-foothill-extension-project/Where does that put Expo?, I wonder. Would they consider a 'simultaneous' opening or push Expo to summer or fall of 2016? The two projects are entirely independent and they can open within a week of each other. They can't open in the same weekend though, as they need a lot of staff for the opening weekend.
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Post by masonite on Dec 8, 2014 12:32:47 GMT -8
The two projects are entirely independent and they can open within a week of each other. They can't open in the same weekend though, as they need a lot of staff for the opening weekend. Not entirely sure about that. From what I have heard is that Metro Operations needs to spread out somewhat from a training and resource perspective.
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Post by darrell on Dec 8, 2014 13:56:43 GMT -8
Last Friday Metro CEO Art Leahy said (among other things) that both lines will open in the spring of 2016, following pre-revenue testing in the fall of 2015.
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Post by Transit Coalition on Dec 8, 2014 16:06:27 GMT -8
Last Friday Metro CEO Art Leahy said (among other things) that both lines will open in the spring of 2016, following pre-revenue testing in the fall of 2015. Each rail line requires several hundred trained employees to operate. Opening weekend requires hundreds of Metro Staff Volunteers. With the availability of the political folks, staffing, avoidance of holidays and other obstacles, the openings will probably be four to eight weeks apart.
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Post by Gokhan on Dec 8, 2014 16:31:46 GMT -8
I'll stick with a May 2016 opening for the "behind-schedule" Expo Line. Gold Line, which seems to be ahead of schedule, can and probably will open by early 2016.
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Post by rubbertoe on Dec 9, 2014 14:54:09 GMT -8
In a silly manner, they even got the order wrong. Expo Phase 2 will open before the Gold Line Foothill extension, not after. I don't expect Expo to open any later than April 2016. Foothill extension should open in Summer 2016. Gokhan, I see you have finally come around to our way of thinking, while previously believing that Expo 2 would open first? The GLFE maintenance buildings were started first, the track was laid first, the catenary was in place first, as well as the crossings. It only makes sense that the GLFE would open first, barring any conditions not yet anticipated. RT
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Post by Gokhan on Dec 9, 2014 15:32:38 GMT -8
In a silly manner, they even got the order wrong. Expo Phase 2 will open before the Gold Line Foothill extension, not after. I don't expect Expo to open any later than April 2016. Foothill extension should open in Summer 2016. Gokhan, I see you have finally come around to our way of thinking, while previously believing that Expo 2 would open first? The GLFE maintenance buildings were started first, the track was laid first, the catenary was in place first, as well as the crossings. It only makes sense that the GLFE would open first, barring any conditions not yet anticipated. RT Gold Line construction has been proceeding very smoothly but Skanska hit the brakes on the once-fast-moving-along Expo Line. I don't know why. Also, Expo Line needs a lot more trains.
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Post by joshuanickel on Dec 9, 2014 18:22:04 GMT -8
Gokhan, I see you have finally come around to our way of thinking, while previously believing that Expo 2 would open first? The GLFE maintenance buildings were started first, the track was laid first, the catenary was in place first, as well as the crossings. It only makes sense that the GLFE would open first, barring any conditions not yet anticipated. RT Gold Line construction has been proceeding very smoothly but Skanska hit the brakes on the once-fast-moving-along Expo Line. I don't know why. Also, Expo Line needs a lot more trains. Is it really Skanska that is slowing down, or is it the sub-contractors that are draging their feet? You have Hertzog laying down the rail. MECC doing the OCS. Steiny doing the communication and signaling. Skanska is doing the civil work such as station construction and street reconstruction, but the systems that are currently getting installed, i.e. track, ocs, etc. are all being done by sub-contractors that are specialized in doing that sort of work and that is what seems to be holding up any train testing from happening.
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Post by masonite on Dec 10, 2014 11:40:46 GMT -8
Gold Line construction has been proceeding very smoothly but Skanska hit the brakes on the once-fast-moving-along Expo Line. I don't know why. Also, Expo Line needs a lot more trains. Is it really Skanska that is slowing down, or is it the sub-contractors that are draging their feet? You have Hertzog laying down the rail. MECC doing the OCS. Steiny doing the communication and signaling. Skanska is doing the civil work such as station construction and street reconstruction, but the systems that are currently getting installed, i.e. track, ocs, etc. are all being done by sub-contractors that are specialized in doing that sort of work and that is what seems to be holding up any train testing from happening. I think this is all a combination of people seeing tracks in a certain section of the line and thinking they are almost finished. However, as others have observed, much of the rest of the Line needed substantial work. Parts of the line in SM looked very raw a few months ago and Expo itself said the Line was just 70% done a few months ago. There is a lot of electrical, signaling and communication work and other items that needed to be completed with still a third of the line to be completed just a few months ago. Now the line is about 80% done so it doesn't seem to me that they are really slowing down like it is made out to be here. It may seem that way in Palms, but there was always substantial work to be done on the Western half of the Line and that seems to be where they are concentrating now.
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Post by masonite on Dec 10, 2014 11:44:29 GMT -8
I'll note I originally said May 2016 for an opening. I moved it up to Jan. 2016 when I heard about Skanska apparently being ahead of schedule. I still think we are probably in the Jan. to May 2016 timeframe so I haven't bought into these rumors as much as others that the line could be open in Mid 2015. Bottom line to me is that not much has changed over the construction and things are going pretty much as planned.
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Post by roadtrainer on Dec 10, 2014 13:11:38 GMT -8
Well you talk about slowing down? IS phase two ever going to be on time and on budget?
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Post by Bart Reed on Dec 10, 2014 14:22:08 GMT -8
Well you talk about slowing down? IS phase two ever going to be on time and on budget? Phase 2 has always been on time and on budget. Sometimes rumors and speculation start here causing people to misunderstand. This project (Phase 2) has never been delayed. Period. The new rail car order is on time and on budget. Period. Metro recently brought up the issue of a budget to operate Expo Phase 2 and will ask for authorization to fund Operator and Supervisor position hiring in the FY 2015-16 budget. This budget goes before the Metro Board in May 2016 and will go for final authorization in June 2016. Also, Metro is in the FY 2014-15 budget. There has never been money allocated to hire Operators or Supervisors, so there can not be an opening before July 2015.
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Post by Gokhan on Dec 12, 2014 12:16:59 GMT -8
Phase 2 has always been on time It was until recently, but I think, in my opinion, the schedule has started to slip. I don't think they will make their July 10, 2015, contract date. They have a ton of work remaining -- 20% -- with only less than seven months to go, and their past performance has been such that they are slower than 20% in seven months. Plus, there will be a lot of complications with the installation of the communications and signaling as well as train testing. Various last-minute problems usually arise as well. It looks like we are also having a very rainy season. I hope you are right, but I think it's optimistic to say that the Expo Line Phase 2 construction will make its contract date of July 10, 2015, given the current status and progress.
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Post by transituser23 on Mar 1, 2015 8:53:21 GMT -8
I was wondering if forum members wanted to update their guesses about when phase 2 would be open to the public. I don't mean to start another poll. I had originally guessed January 2016. From what I have seen posted on other threads/sections of this forum my guess might be a little optimistic. So based on what we know now (March 2015) what is your revised best guess?
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Mar 1, 2015 10:54:00 GMT -8
No revision necessary here. I but my chip on March 2016 and I think I'll keep it there. btw, shouldn't this be 'Price is Right' rules? closest without going over? : )
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Post by bobdavis on Mar 2, 2015 1:09:11 GMT -8
Meanwhile, out in the San Gabriel Valley, the Gold Line Foothill Extension is scheduled for "handover" to Metro on Monday, Sept. 21, 2015. The electric overhead should be done by the end of March, and possibly sooner. An open house at the Operation Campus in Monrovia is expected during May.
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 2, 2015 12:02:28 GMT -8
It looks like at this point Expo Line Phase 2 is scheduled to open sometime between February and April 2016. Therefore, there is not much point in trying to guess whether it will be February, March, or April.
However, it might be more fun to try to guess the exact opening day.
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Post by rubbertoe on Mar 2, 2015 12:09:12 GMT -8
It looks like at this point Expo Line Phase 2 is scheduled to open sometime between February and April 2016. Therefore, there is not much point in trying to guess whether it will be February, March, or April. However, it might be more fun to try to guess the exact opening day. Monday, February 29th 2016 for revenue service. Just because
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 2, 2015 12:19:26 GMT -8
It looks like at this point Expo Line Phase 2 is scheduled to open sometime between February and April 2016. Therefore, there is not much point in trying to guess whether it will be February, March, or April. However, it might be more fun to try to guess the exact opening day. Monday, February 29th 2016 for revenue service. Just because OK, the lines always open on a Saturday or a Sunday -- more likely a Saturday -- in order to offer free rides and promote the line. So, since your guess is extremely unlikely to be correct for that reason, guess again.
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Post by rubbertoe on Mar 2, 2015 15:06:59 GMT -8
Monday, February 29th 2016 for revenue service. Just because OK, the lines always open on a Saturday or a Sunday -- more likely a Saturday -- in order to offer free rides and promote the line. So, since your guess is extremely unlikely to be correct for that reason, guess again. Gokhan, Note that I said "revenue service" begins that Monday. Of course, the free rides can start the previous weekend. And we all get to hop on for the special ride well before then. RT
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 2, 2015 17:13:17 GMT -8
OK, the lines always open on a Saturday or a Sunday -- more likely a Saturday -- in order to offer free rides and promote the line. So, since your guess is extremely unlikely to be correct for that reason, guess again. Gokhan, Note that I said "revenue service" begins that Monday. Of course, the free rides can start the previous weekend. And we all get to hop on for the special ride well before then. RT Some people will still tap it regardless and revenue will be made.
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 19, 2015 11:05:50 GMT -8
Thanks for the pics, Darrell. There is still a lot more to do and with the glacier speed Skanska is proceeding with at the moment, I don't expect a full completion before early 2016, toward the opening of the line.
This is from the previous estimate of the completion done at 50% completion at the January 2014 Expo board meeting:
Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016
Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016
Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion (in the board meeting agenda to be posted online on March 30, 2015)
Note that the project is currently 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days.
So, when the project was 50% complete in early 2014, it was fully on schedule. Then, things started slipping. It looks like the last 10% will take a year to complete and they will use all the remaining contingency they have (167 days) and the line will open around May 2016. It's unbelievable how the contractor slammed on the brakes. I wonder what the reason is.
So, the project seems to be roughly 6 months behind schedule but we will hear the official word in two weeks.
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