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Post by masonite on Mar 19, 2015 12:28:38 GMT -8
Thanks for the pics, Darrell. There is still a lot more to do and with the glacier speed Skanska is proceeding with at the moment, I don't expect a full completion before early 2016, toward the opening of the line. This is from the previous estimate of the completion done at 50% completion at the January 2014 Expo board meeting: Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016
Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016
Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion (in the board meeting agenda to be posted online on March 30, 2015)
Note that the project is currently 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days.So, when the project was 50% complete in early 2014, it was fully on schedule. Then, things started slipping. It looks like the last 10% will take a year to complete and they will use all the remaining contingency they have (167 days) and the line will open around May 2016. It's unbelievable how the contractor slammed on the brakes. I wonder what the reason is. So, the project seems to be roughly 6 months behind schedule but we will hear the official word in two weeks. Metro Construction Committee estimates substantial completion in Nov. 2015 per the meeting this week.
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Post by davebowman on Mar 19, 2015 16:17:16 GMT -8
Next year Commencement at USC will be on Friday, May 13. I would love to be able to take the train to work (Santa Monica to USC) that day.
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Post by Transit Coalition on Mar 19, 2015 19:00:06 GMT -8
Next year Commencement at USC will be on Friday, May 13. I would love to be able to take the train to work (Santa Monica to USC) that day. According to reports at the Metro Board Committee meetings today, there still could be that possibility. More will be know in the coming months. Stay tuned.
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 14, 2015 11:31:12 GMT -8
It's funny that Metro is making a false statement with the line being "on-schedule." They are referring to the 100% use of the construction contingency. This is not on-schedule and the contingency had already been reduced to 50% previously. April 2015 Metro project-statuses report (PDF) (Expo on Pages 15 & 16) What was reported previously on January 9, 2014: Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016 Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016 Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion As of January 2014, project was 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days in January 2014. In one year, project schedule slipped for six months or more -- hard to believe. It tells you how much the contractor has slowed down the construction. They are now working in about half the speed they used to.
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 15, 2015 10:30:23 GMT -8
It's funny that Metro is making a false statement with the line being "on-schedule." They are referring to the 100% use of the construction contingency. This is not on-schedule and the contingency had already been reduced to 50% previously. April 2015 Metro project-statuses report (PDF) (Expo on Pages 15 & 16) What was reported previously on January 9, 2014: Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016 Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016 Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion As of January 2014, project was 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days in January 2014. In one year, project schedule slipped for six months or more -- hard to believe. It tells you how much the contractor has slowed down the construction. They are now working in about half the speed they used to. Skanska has really messed up in the last year and the schedule has slipped for six months. It will keep slipping from the way it looks now. Factoring in many possible problems during testing, I wouldn't be surprised if the line couldn't open until late 2016 or even 2017. I see one person voted for 2017+ in the poll and he/she might well end up to be the winner.
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Post by metrocenter on Apr 23, 2015 8:03:13 GMT -8
I would LOVE for this to be open by mid-year 2015. But I'm sticking to my prediction of Q1 2016, because of the potential issues, such as lack of LRV availability, and the small but critical buckle in the Great Wall of West LA. There is risk not only due to the actual issues, but because of how leadership may react to these issues. You never know how politicians like the Metro Board might overreact to things. Prove me wrong, Skanska, Expo Authority and Metro Board! I would like to think that by missing the agreed-upon completion date, Skanska will begin to feel some political and financial pressure (and maybe pain) to wrap this project up. So, I would look for an acceleration of work in the summer, with many of the milestones completed in the fall and handover for pre-revenue ops toward the end of the year. All speculation, of course. We'll know it's done when it's done.
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Post by masonite on Apr 23, 2015 9:20:43 GMT -8
I would LOVE for this to be open by mid-year 2015. But I'm sticking to my prediction of Q1 2016, because of the potential issues, such as lack of LRV availability, and the small but critical buckle in the Great Wall of West LA. There is risk not only due to the actual issues, but because of how leadership may react to these issues. You never know how politicians like the Metro Board might overreact to things. Prove me wrong, Skanska, Expo Authority and Metro Board! I would like to think that by missing the agreed-upon completion date, Skanska will begin to feel some political and financial pressure (and maybe pain) to wrap this project up. So, I would look for an acceleration of work in the summer, with many of the milestones completed in the fall and handover for pre-revenue ops toward the end of the year. All speculation, of course. We'll know it's done when it's done. Per the latest reports, substantial completion is expected in Nov. with pre-revenue starting a month earlier in Oct. Who knows if they can stick to it and whether Skanska will have to pay liquidated damages for not complying with the terms of the contract or whether they can point to something out of their control like LADWP or something else.
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 23, 2015 10:43:01 GMT -8
More details: Substantial completion (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): July 10, 2015 Length of testing and start-up: 150 days ROD (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): December 7, 2015 Contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): 167 days ROD with contingency (current estimate [@ 50% completion]): May 22, 2016 Old contingency (estimate at project start): 334 days Old ROD date with contingency (estimate at project start): November 5, 2016 Next estimate for contingency and ROD with contingency: to be made at 90% completion Note that the project is currently 100% on schedule @ 50% completion. That's why the contingency was exactly cut by half (by 50%) from 334 days to 167 days. I don't think they can penalize Skanska/Rados unless they can't hand it over to Metro by December 24, 2015, which is the current substantial-completion date with contingency (July 10, 2015 + 167 days). I don't think Skanska/Rados will achieve substantial completion before this absolute deadline of December 24, 2015, including the contingency. Will they fail to achieve substantial completion on December 24, 2015? It's more than likely given their ever-slowing construction speed. Can the line open on May 22, 2016, which is the ROD with contingency? It's likely but I am guessing that they will run into many, many problems during testing, given the complicated nature of the Phase 2 alignment and many ad hoc designs along the way. Therefore, don't be surprised if CPUC doesn't approve the line to be opened until late 2016 or even early 2017.
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Post by simonla on Apr 23, 2015 11:39:32 GMT -8
No disrespect Gokhan, but you're fond of throwing out doomsday scenarios. Everything remains speculative. The line is looking close to being wrapped up (obviously testing is another matter).
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 23, 2015 12:00:35 GMT -8
No disrespect Gokhan, but you're fond of throwing out doomsday scenarios. Everything remains speculative. The line is looking close to being wrapped up (obviously testing is another matter). Last month, guess by Expo Authority on substantial completion was November 2015. My guess is only a month later or more, which is an educated guess based on Skanska's schedule constantly falling behind since early 2014. Current guess by Metro and Expo on opening of the line is May 2016. This assumes that everything will go as expected during testing. I said this is likely, but there should be no surprise according to what we know from history -- there will be problems during testing, as there always have been with other lines, and it's not unlikely for the opening to be delayed past the current goal of May 2016. So, nothing I said is an exaggeration of the current status. Also, don't forget that they are still unable to obtain the TPSS for the Stewart yard in the near future, which could delay the testing quite a bit.
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Post by TransportationZ on Apr 23, 2015 12:17:37 GMT -8
Why is Skanska slowing down so much? At the rate of construction they had in the first two years they could have finished the entire line by now. Is it political?
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Post by culvercitylocke on Apr 23, 2015 13:51:30 GMT -8
Why is Skanska slowing down so much? At the rate of construction they had in the first two years they could have finished the entire line by now. Is it political? Presumably because they won the purple line contract and moved personnel to it, leaving expo with the jv team.
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Post by joshuanickel on Apr 23, 2015 21:08:32 GMT -8
No disrespect Gokhan, but you're fond of throwing out doomsday scenarios. Everything remains speculative. The line is looking close to being wrapped up (obviously testing is another matter). Also, don't forget that they are still unable to obtain the TPSS for the Stewart yard in the near future, which could delay the testing quite a bit. To clarify, the TPSS has been placed in the Maintenance yard. The delay is in getting it commissioned and powered up.
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Post by joshuanickel on Apr 24, 2015 5:50:17 GMT -8
Also, don't forget that they are still unable to obtain the TPSS for the Stewart yard in the near future, which could delay the testing quite a bit. To clarify, the TPSS has been placed in the Maintenance yard. The delay is in getting it commissioned and powered up. Here are the pictures that show the installation of the TPSS at the Maintenance Facility: Photos of OMF - TPSS delivery and installation of substation
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 24, 2015 12:49:52 GMT -8
A 2-in-1 TPSS, twice the power. I am guessing that this TPSS also powers the main line because since the yard won't be finished for another six months, there would be no point of commissioning it now otherwise.
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 24, 2015 14:34:01 GMT -8
A 2-in-1 TPSS, twice the power. I am guessing that this TPSS also powers the main line because since the yard won't be finished for another six months, there would be no point of commissioning it now otherwise. expolinefan says that this TPSS will not be connected to main line. In that case, I don't understand why they are making a big deal out of commissioning it, as the yard won't be ready for another six months.
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Post by tramfan on May 4, 2015 13:13:14 GMT -8
As I have been photographing the yard for weeks now Mass does not seem to make any effort to install any OCS wires to the maintenance yard although the OCS is done for tracks 3 and 4 passing the yard. No OCS for the lead in tracks yet. Testing beyond Military to Lincoln could start within a month if all TPSS are on line although the distance between Barrington TPSS and Olympic bridge TPSS seems a long distance to cover without any power coming from anything on the maintenance yard.
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Post by tramfan on May 4, 2015 14:12:16 GMT -8
Expo line fan sent me the TPSS line up covering the whole track from Culver city to DTSM as to debunk my worries about the power supply; also there's a redundancy built in if one of the TPSS would fail there's enough power to service the line uninterrupted. TPSS #9 ( Palms ) Culver City To Palms Park Bridge TPSS #10 ( Overland ) Palms Park Bridge to Military TPSS #11 ( Sepulveda ) Military to Barrington TPSS #12 ( Barrington ) Barrington to Yard East End TPSS #13 ( Olympic ) Yard East End to 18th Street TPSS #14 ( 17th Street) 18th Street to Lincoln TPSS #15 ( 5th Street) Lincoln to DTSM Stationv
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Post by Gokhan on May 7, 2015 14:37:19 GMT -8
I was surprised to find out from the Expo Right Now meeting that Metro will open Expo Line Phase 2 with 12-minute headway. Four months of prerevenue service? Really? It should be no more than about a month. Also, only 9 LRVs + spare LRVs are needed for 12-minute headway. The statement that 24 LRVs are needed is plain wrong and/or falsified. I wasn't at this meeting and the following pictures were taken by a Friends 4 Expo member:
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Post by darrell on May 7, 2015 23:11:24 GMT -8
I was at the meeting (to speak for the Greenway) but didn't take those photos (thought of it, but type wasn't very legible). My notes of the Metro staff members' presentation include:
* 78 LRVs will be delivered from October 2014 to January 2017, with 63 for Expo -- twice the delivery rate of previous orders * December 2015 begins pre-revenue testing with 4-12 LRVs * They'll need 24 LRVs for 12-minute headways (and will have 26 conditionally accepted) for opening service capabilities beginning of April 2016; 49 for 6-minute headways * Project 43,600 daily boardings for 2020 * 275 new operations positions are being filled for Expo phase 2 and Foothill Gold Line * Metro is beginning community safety outreach a year before opening
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Post by Philip on May 8, 2015 8:32:44 GMT -8
Not surprised at all about the 12-minute headway.
Expo still has difficulty running trains on time now with Phase 1.
Five-minute headways with Expo Phase 2 would no doubt have resulted in a lot of train bunching.
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2015 9:10:21 GMT -8
I was at the meeting (to speak for the Greenway) but didn't take those photos (thought of it, but type wasn't very legible). My notes of the Metro staff members' presentation include: * 78 LRVs will be delivered from October 2014 to January 2017, with 63 for Expo -- twice the delivery rate of previous orders * December 2015 begins pre-revenue testing with 4-12 LRVs * They'll need 24 LRVs for 12-minute headways (and will have 26 conditionally accepted) for opening service capabilities beginning of April 2016; 49 for 6-minute headways * Project 43,600 daily boardings for 2020 * 275 new operations positions are being filled for Expo phase 2 and Foothill Gold Line * Metro is beginning community safety outreach a year before opening 24 or 27 LRVs -- or 8 or 9 trains -- is the number needed for Phase 1 and Phase 2 combined. They already have 6 trains for Phase 1. This means, they need 2 or 3 more new trains plus a spare train or two for Phase 2. I would say 12 new LRVs (4 new trains) covers it all. To run 24 additional LRVs on the line with 12-minute headway is simply a mathematical impossibility, as the trains would have nowhere to go (other than to be stored in the yard). They don't need 5 spare trains or 15 spare LRVs waiting in the yard. That's too many spares for a line that runs only 9 trains or 27 LRVs end-to-end (between LA and Santa Monica).
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2015 9:19:16 GMT -8
The following is an exact equation:
round-trip time + dead time at the origin + dead time at the terminus = number of trains x one-way headway
round-trip time: round-trip travel time from the origin to the terminus and then back dead time at the origin: time an arriving train spends at the origin before its scheduled departure dead time at the terminus: time an arriving train spends at the terminus before its scheduled departure one-way headway: time before the next train in the same direction on the schedule
Using 46 x 2 minutes for the round-trip time and 6 minutes each for the dead times, for 12-minute headway, the number of trains is 8.7 trains. Or, using 9 trains, the resulting dead times are 8 minutes each. 10 or more trains doesn't work, as it results in 14-minute or longer dead times, which is longer than the headway.
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Post by jamesinclair on May 8, 2015 10:24:28 GMT -8
The best way to eliminate that ridiculous 12 minute headway is to have a shorter round trip.
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f ron
Full Member
Posts: 222
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Post by f ron on May 8, 2015 11:41:57 GMT -8
I was at the meeting (to speak for the Greenway) but didn't take those photos (thought of it, but type wasn't very legible). My notes of the Metro staff members' presentation include: * 78 LRVs will be delivered from October 2014 to January 2017, with 63 for Expo -- twice the delivery rate of previous orders * December 2015 begins pre-revenue testing with 4-12 LRVs * They'll need 24 LRVs for 12-minute headways (and will have 26 conditionally accepted) for opening service capabilities beginning of April 2016; 49 for 6-minute headways * Project 43,600 daily boardings for 2020 * 275 new operations positions are being filled for Expo phase 2 and Foothill Gold Line * Metro is beginning community safety outreach a year before opening It's been said that projection numbers are conservative so that when goals are reached before that time it appears all the more impressive. In other words, 'under promise and over deliver'. Still, 43,600 daily boardings for projected 2020? It will take about four years to get ridership up another 13k? Am I reading that right? --how many additional boardings for Phase 2 is the 'official' projection in the opening year?
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Post by Gokhan on May 8, 2015 12:14:57 GMT -8
Still, 43,600 daily boardings for projected 2020? It will take about four years to get ridership up another 13k? Am I reading that right? --how many additional boardings for Phase 2 is the 'official' projection in the opening year? 43,600 is the number of additional Phase 2 boardings. This will bring the combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 ridership to around 80,000.
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Post by culvercitylocke on May 8, 2015 17:39:07 GMT -8
The following is an exact equation: round-trip time + dead time at the origin + dead time at the terminus = number of trains x one-way headwayround-trip time: round-trip travel time from the origin to the terminus and then back dead time at the origin: time an arriving train spends at the origin before its scheduled departure dead time at the terminus: time an arriving train spends at the terminus before its scheduled departure one-way headway: time before the next train in the same direction on the schedule Using 46 x 2 minutes for the round-trip time and 6 minutes each for the dead times, for 12-minute headway, the number of trains is 8.7 trains. Or, using 9 trains, the resulting dead times are 8 minutes each. 10 or more trains doesn't work, as it results in 14-minute or longer dead times, which is longer than the headway. Clearly they've ridden expo and know that the flower section makes 46 min a laughable impossibility, their math probably reflects a longer time than 46 min.
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Post by masonite on May 9, 2015 11:10:36 GMT -8
I was surprised to find out from the Expo Right Now meeting that Metro will open Expo Line Phase 2 with 12-minute headway. Four months of prerevenue service? Really? It should be no more than about a month. Also, only 9 LRVs + spare LRVs are needed for 12-minute headway. The statement that 24 LRVs are needed is plain wrong and/or falsified. I wasn't at this meeting and the following pictures were taken by a Friends 4 Expo member: Pre-revenue service has to be at least 6 weeks per federal law I believe. Combine with new rail cars that require 90 days of testing as well as complicated crossings with severe traffic backup at some intersections and it was always going to be 4-6 months of prerevenue. They had talked about in the last report about starting prerevenue in Sept. I believe, so now Dec. is the only new nugget of info here. April is probably the best case scenario at this point.
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Post by darrell on May 9, 2015 11:52:28 GMT -8
The following is an exact equation: round-trip time + dead time at the origin + dead time at the terminus = number of trains x one-way headwayround-trip time: round-trip travel time from the origin to the terminus and then back dead time at the origin: time an arriving train spends at the origin before its scheduled departure dead time at the terminus: time an arriving train spends at the terminus before its scheduled departure one-way headway: time before the next train in the same direction on the schedule Using 46 x 2 minutes for the round-trip time and 6 minutes each for the dead times, for 12-minute headway, the number of trains is 8.7 trains. Or, using 9 trains, the resulting dead times are 8 minutes each. 10 or more trains doesn't work, as it results in 14-minute or longer dead times, which is longer than the headway. Clearly they've ridden expo and know that the flower section makes 46 min a laughable impossibility, their math probably reflects a longer time than 46 min. Not necessarily. I timed Culver City to 7th Street at 30 minutes +/- 1 minute on my last two rides. Sixteen minutes from Culver City to the Santa Monica terminus is reasonable, given it's all private right-of-way to 17th, and if there's good signal synchronization for the last mile down Colorado, which the City of Santa Monica appears to be committed to. One more factoid from the Expo Board meeting is the maintenance facility will hold 48 cars.
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Post by darrell on May 9, 2015 11:54:40 GMT -8
Still, 43,600 daily boardings for projected 2020? It will take about four years to get ridership up another 13k? Am I reading that right? --how many additional boardings for Phase 2 is the 'official' projection in the opening year? 43,600 is the number of additional Phase 2 boardings. This will bring the combined Phase 1 and Phase 2 ridership to around 80,000. I think that was 43,600 total Expo boardings, not additional for Phase 2.
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