Post by Tony Fernandez on Sept 4, 2008 10:12:11 GMT -8
"The CSHRA claims that 117,000,000 passengers per year will ride the train by 2030. This number of riders is absurd. A train will carry 800 passengers. That would mean in a 10 hour travel day, there would have to be one train leaving one train leaving sooner than every two minutes."
A 10-hour travel day? That seemed like a strange concept to me. So what, there will be trains leaving only in a 10 hour segment every day? That doesn't make any sense.
"The rail promoters promise gross revenues of $4 billion annually and net returns of $1.3 billion. Furthermore, they claim that revenues would be sufficient to pay for all future extensions and still provide a profit for the private investors. There is no historical precedent for such accounting. The British-French Eurotunnel and high speed train has had to restructure its debt several times, including in the last two years."
Making it sound like no HSR system in the world makes money.
Note that only 1% of intercity riders currently use rail. Somehow the CHSRA thinks that magically everyone is going to leave their cars and use the train to travel from LA to San Francisco.
Why do people opt to drive between LA and SF rather than fly? One factual reason is the passenger has to arrive 2 hours before flight time.
With HSR, the passenger can arrive as little as 15 minutes before the train departs. A passenger can either pre-purchase tickets online (much like Amtrak Quick-Trak), buy them at a TVM (staffed with ambassadors), or buy them at a ticket counter.
Random security checks can be conducted at station platforms on onboard trains which would include bomb-sniffing dogs.
Most of their riders will come from the airlines. Many travelers need their cars when they arrive.
CA HSR Authority and OCTA have addressed this issue with frequent feeder service and community shuttles which will be funded by various sources.
Post by Tony Fernandez on Sept 4, 2008 12:38:15 GMT -8
Only 1% of intercity rider currently use rail? Could that have something to do with the fact that a trip from LA to San Francisco completely on rail takes more than 10 hours and that the faster trip requires going to Bakersfield on a motor coach and then finally taking the train after that long trip? People don't take intercity rail because intercity rail is a terrible option.