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Post by bobdavis on Oct 13, 2010 21:00:10 GMT -8
Maglev has what I call the "Cover of Popular Science effect" going for it. There are so many things that look "really cool" in an artist's conception but don't really work in the actual world, or if they do, it's only in special cases (e.g. Disneyland Monorail). Another problem with any new rail service to Las Vegas is that the State of California has little interest in seeing its citizens' money disappearing across state lines. The powers that be in Sacramento are leery of asking folks all over the state to finance a railway to the slot machines and showrooms.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Oct 13, 2010 22:50:07 GMT -8
Maglev has what I call the "Cover of Popular Science effect" going for it. There are so many things that look "really cool" in an artist's conception but don't really work in the actual world, or if they do, it's only in special cases (e.g. Disneyland Monorail). Another problem with any new rail service to Las Vegas is that the State of California has little interest in seeing its citizens' money disappearing across state lines. The powers that be in Sacramento are leery of asking folks all over the state to finance a railway to the slot machines and showrooms. Well using that logic than why would any city on the east coast want to connect with New York City? I mean NYC with all of its glitz and glamour, why would you want leaving Boston, Philly, DC, Atlanta, etc... Doesn't make sense. You build rail for connections not for fear that people will leave their tax dollars behind. Remember, it's California that has the pro sports teams (which I know Las Vegas citizens do miss watching), Disneyland (those Asian tourists still flock there), Hollywood (won't happen in Las Vegas), and the beaches (again, Vegas holds nothing to LA on this either).
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Post by jdrcrasher on Oct 14, 2010 6:33:35 GMT -8
Oh please. ARTIC is in Anaheim, and Anaheim might as well change its name to DisneyHeim for all of the political power that the Mouse holds in that city. In labor disputes, transportation planning, overall residential and commercial zoning — in other words, anything that would affect Disneyland — Anaheim rolls over like a trained puppy for its favorite tax generator. Disneyland is biggest reason why ARTIC exists. Incorrect. Anaheim/Santa Ana actually is bigger in the convention business than even downtown la. That is a major reason why ARTIC was built. Having a baseball team helps, too. So? If you read my earlier post, that won't matter, since the extension to Palmdale is pretty much considered a seperate project.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Oct 14, 2010 8:08:21 GMT -8
Anaheim certainly has a lot going for itself. Disneyland, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (hint: that's the reason my user ID was created...absolutely absurdity), Anaheim Ducks, Anaheim Convention Center. It truly is a cultural/entertainment center for Orange County. However, Maglev, if ever built, has to go to Los Angeles and MAYBE Anaheim. Los Angeles is the destination of tourists and business folks. Anaheim is good, but LA is the hub.
Again, this whole thing about Maglev is pie-in-the-sky. A practical solution to the missing link between LA and Vegas is the X Train. It's reasoanbly priced and the tracks are there. Las Vegas just needs to build a passenger station somewhere and then service can start.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Oct 14, 2010 11:03:06 GMT -8
Baltimore is also planning a maglev to DC, and the LA Ports hope to use the technology for cargo as well. Maglev has what I call the "Cover of Popular Science effect" going for it. There are so many things that look "really cool" in an artist's conception but don't really work in the actual world, or if they do, it's only in special cases (e.g. Disneyland Monorail). How can you make that statement when it has barely been introduced in the commercial transit world? At least give it a chance. Commercial-use of Monorail has been around for DECADES. Again, this whole thing about Maglev is pie-in-the-sky. A practical solution to the missing link between LA and Vegas is the X Train. It's reasoanbly priced and the tracks are there. Las Vegas just needs to build a passenger station somewhere and then service can start. The X-Train sounds good as a short-term alterative until a true HSR route (one that traverses the Cajon Pass) is built, but the introduction of it's "twins" didn't help the plan at all. What I don't like is that they've been touting it more as a destination, not a transit line.
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Post by James Fujita on Oct 14, 2010 13:16:54 GMT -8
It won't reach Anaheim in Phase 1. Hell, Maglev Phase 1 won't reach Victorville, so don't get all high and mighty about which project gets closer to Los Angeles. So? If you read my earlier post, that won't matter, since the extension to Palmdale is pretty much considered a seperate project. It's not irrelevant. If the first segment of Maglev won't get beyond the Nevada border, then it's no better than the DesertXpress. Actually, it's worse, because DesertXpress' first segment will bring you closer to Los Angeles than Maglev will. That is an absolutely huge, inconvenient detail about Maglev that the people living in Las Vegas have been ignoring this whole time. Maglev Phase 1 will reach Ivanpah Valley Airport (an airport which doesn't exist yet). DesertXpress Phase 1 will reach Victorville, and it will cost less and go more miles. = BTW, do you think Anaheim would have a baseball team without Disneyland? Do you think anybody would go to a convention in Anaheim if Disneyland weren't across the street from the convention center? = p.s. Why so obsessed about Cajon Pass? The first HSR line out of Southern California will head up and over Tehachapi, not Cajon Pass.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Oct 14, 2010 13:22:02 GMT -8
BTW, do you think Anaheim would have a baseball team without Disneyland? Do you think anybody would go to a convention in Anaheim if Disneyland weren't across the street from the convention center? There is absolutely nothing wrong with being known as the home of the original Disneyland. The only Disney theme park that Walt Disney ever saw. Anaheim did grow up around Disneyland and there is no qualms about it. BTW..it's like saying the same about Orlando, FL. You think they'd have the Orlando Magic or the #1/#2 convention center (always flips flops with Vegas) without Disneyworld?
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Post by James Fujita on Oct 14, 2010 13:49:54 GMT -8
BTW, do you think Anaheim would have a baseball team without Disneyland? Do you think anybody would go to a convention in Anaheim if Disneyland weren't across the street from the convention center? There is absolutely nothing wrong with being known as the home of the original Disneyland. The only Disney theme park that Walt Disney ever saw. Anaheim did grow up around Disneyland and there is no qualms about it. BTW..it's like saying the same about Orlando, FL. You think they'd have the Orlando Magic or the #1/#2 convention center (always flips flops with Vegas) without Disneyworld? Don't get me wrong. I like Disneyland. I've been there plenty of times and I've been to conventions which advertised "we're across the street from Disneyland!" in their literature (specifically Anime Expo, before it outgrew Anaheim and moved to the LACC). However, Mr. JDR Crasher keeps on insisting that Disneyland isn't the ultimate destination for Maglev. That's a ridiculous claim, supported on the flimsy technicality that Maglev will go to ARTIC, not straight into the Disneyland parking lot. I'm arguing that you would only aim Maglev at Anaheim because of Disneyland. Without Disneyland, Anaheim makes no sense as a destination. (Cal HSR is slightly different, because of the obvious traffic between Los Angeles and Orange County. Maglev won't be able to take advantage of that commuter pattern.) Incidentally, they've been discussing Maglev for far longer than ARTIC has been on drawing boards... so where would Maglev have gone without ARTIC? The cruddy little Anaheim Stadium Amtrak Station? ;D
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Oct 14, 2010 14:33:43 GMT -8
However, Mr. JDR Crasher keeps on insisting that Disneyland isn't the ultimate destination for Maglev. That's a ridiculous claim, supported on the flimsy technicality that Maglev will go to ARTIC, not straight into the Disneyland parking lot. I'm arguing that you would only aim Maglev at Anaheim because of Disneyland. Without Disneyland, Anaheim makes no sense as a destination. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh.............I agree with you Mr. Fujita.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Oct 14, 2010 15:16:59 GMT -8
Maglev Phase 1 will reach Ivanpah Valley Airport (an airport which doesn't exist yet). DesertXpress Phase 1 will reach Victorville, and it will cost less and go more miles. But the entire Maglev project is being included in one EIR study process. This is one reason why it's taking so long. However, you're acting as if the DesertXpress and Palmdale extension are as well.....they aren't. Saves time for people heading into the Inland Empire and Anaheim rather than taking the longer route via DesertXpress. However, Mr. JDR Crasher keeps on insisting that Disneyland isn't the ultimate destination for Maglev. That's a ridiculous claim, supported on the flimsy technicality that Maglev will go to ARTIC, not straight into the Disneyland parking lot. Given that earlier you said the maglev won't reach "Disneyland" (not Anaheim), what was I supposed to think? BTW, the maglev is included in current studies of ARTIC, as well as the official website of the project. Here, you could transfer to the CHSR, Metrolink, OCTA, Amtrak. As for rail transportation between Disneyland and ARTIC, that's a seperate issue. Dude, a lot of things in Anaheim (and really Orange County in general) are a result of Disneyland. If you took Disneyland away TODAY, Anaheim would definitely suffer. But it would still survive because of the establishment of other industries there. And I think this will become even more apparant as Anaheim/Santa Ana densifies and becomes even more of it's own metro than it is now. It's kind of like Dubai. Sure, much of what is happening there is ultimately because of oil, but oil makes up so little of it's economy now. And with all this said, Disneyland is going anywhere any time soon, if ever. Traffic on the 15 freeway isn't exactly good. So has California High Speed Rail (in some shape or form). Your point?
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Post by matthewb on Mar 26, 2011 14:59:34 GMT -8
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Post by jdrcrasher on Mar 27, 2011 19:22:38 GMT -8
Doesn't really matter, since funding has yet to appear.
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Post by jeisenbe on Mar 27, 2011 21:30:57 GMT -8
Has anyone read thru the EIR?
AT CAHSR Blog, a few people had commented on some engineering limitations, including a 4% grade (pretty steep even for high speed rail) and 110 mph curves in the middle of the alignment (which would be a big slowdown for future 220 mph service to Phoenix or San Francisco, and is still not so great for a 150 mph top speed).
DesertXPress is hoping for a 4.9 billion dollar loan from the feds so they can start construction. I really don't know if they will make a big enough profit to service that loan, but if that's the only money the pubic puts up, I think it is a good idea. The service will certainly be profitable once it is connected to Los Angeles via Palmdale, and long-term the public benefit is there, so even if the private company can't turn a profit (as happened with the HSR line in Taiwan), the public will benefit.
Not saying I would invest my personal cash in DesertXPress's business, however.
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Post by rubbertoe on Mar 28, 2011 6:24:14 GMT -8
I was reading through the ridership section. It's quite a large document, I'll have to get back to it later. I wanted to check that section first because Cruickshank mentioned a study that the city of Barstow commissioned that said that auto traffic would be reduced by 1/3 if the train were built and bypassed the town. Only one of the comments elaborated on this, which I found interesting. The people who are against HSR always use the argument that "no one will ride the trains". And now we have a city that produces a study, albeit skewed toward the result they want obviously, that says 1/3 of the people currently driving from SoCal to Vegas will switch to the train I think the lesson to be gained from the discussion is that depending on your particular vested interest, either "no one is going to ride the train", or "everyone is going to ride the train". People who are worried about investing any public money deride the project with the basis of their argument being that "no one will ride the train". While Barstow, fearing the loss of auto traffic, claims that "lots of people will ride the train". If nothing else, it shows that can't believe anything that anyone says about ridership. Only when the first HSR corridor opens will there be a definitive data point that can be used in the future. And it ill be used, have no doubt about that. I'm not sure what the revenue projections are for the Victorville to Vegas segment as a standalone segment. But 4% interest on $4.1 billion is roughly $500,000 per day. Someone who pulls out the actual ridership numbers could pretty easily figure out if they can set aside that to pay the interest. As other at the CHSRA blog have pointed out, and I would agree with this, the key is getting the DSX line extended from Victorville to Palmdale. Then you are looking at a potential direct link from LAUS to LAS, switching trains once from Metrolink to DSX in Palmdale. That would give you a huge revenue bump, with an even bigger revenue bump when the CAHSR link from LAUS to Palmdale starts running. Then you are looking at a single seat ride from LAUS to LAS assuming that the DSX rolling stock would work on the CAHSR system. Even if not, a switch at Palmdale would still make for a pretty quick ride. I do like the thought that both the DSX tracks and the CAHSR tracks could potentially be under construction in a year or so, 2012. RT
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Post by James Fujita on Mar 28, 2011 15:17:07 GMT -8
I think the lesson is "anyone with enough cash can hire a 'consultant' to cook the numbers to give you the results you want."
Which is kind of scary when you consider the degree to which people trust numbers, even cooked numbers, more than they trust common sense.
Alternatively, DesertXpress can now use Barstow's numbers the way that movie studios cherrypick the best parts of bad reviews. "See! We will grab one-third of drivers to Vegas! One-third!" ;D
All silliness aside, I am rooting for DesertXpress because I think it provides a much-needed spark to the high-speed rail movement in America. It may look a little odd to build tracks to Victorville, but if you look at the big picture, here is private investment in passenger rail. Here is the potential to link to either Cal HSR or Metrolink at Palmdale.
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Post by bzcat on Mar 29, 2011 10:38:00 GMT -8
And really, building HSR in rural area with straight alignment and cheap (relatively speaking) land acquisition / right of way is a tried and proven way to get things done. I don't really understand the criticism of nay sayers that accuses DSX and CAHSR of building "trains to no where", as if that really means anything. Did these people also criticize I-15 as a "freeway to no where" when it was built?
Japan started building Shinkansen in rice paddies shadowed by Mt Fuji. France's TGV started out as a test track amidst the wheat farms near Lyon. Germany started building its ICE outside a Bavarian forest. China's first segment of HSR connected two stations "in the middle of nowhere" as well. You need these big empty stretch of nothing to realize the full advantage of the high speed.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Mar 29, 2011 20:48:49 GMT -8
Just to remind everyone, this thing will cost $6 Billion, not $4.9 Billion. $4.9 is what their asking from the feds, IIRC. And really, building HSR in rural area with straight alignment and cheap (relatively speaking) land acquisition / right of way is a tried and proven way to get things done. I don't really understand the criticism of nay sayers that accuses DSX and CAHSR of building "trains to no where", as if that really means anything. Did these people also criticize I-15 as a "freeway to no where" when it was built? The thing is bzcat, so much of DesertXpress' success depends on the fruition of the Palmdale extension, and believe me, it's not guaranteed to happen. In fact, you might as well consider it is a SEPARATE project with NO timetable for construction, with it's own EIR. EIRs, as you know, take time. Besides, with CHSR already planning to share tracks with Metrolink, i'm not sure whether there's enough room for consistant DesertXpress service. Cheaper isn't always better. The only real reason why many don't support Maglev is that it's more expensive; and because much of it, too, would be built on open land, cost is reduced. Connectibility isn't an issue. If your willing to transfer from Metrolink to CHSR, why not do the same with Maglev?
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Post by jdrcrasher on Mar 29, 2011 20:50:30 GMT -8
Seriously, i'm sick and tired of people deriding the Maglev just because of it's cost and "unproven" nature.
Both projects are flawed, period.
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Post by James Fujita on Mar 30, 2011 14:23:32 GMT -8
Seriously, i'm sick and tired of people deriding the Maglev just because of it's cost and "unproven" nature. Both projects are flawed, period. And the fact that the DesertXpress project is moving forward while the former supporters of the maglev project have effectively abandoned it to die means nothing.
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Post by matthewb on Mar 30, 2011 17:17:05 GMT -8
I think DesertXpress is a small enough chunk to bite off for now. Maglev is too big to ever get built. One can argue a lot about what connection will get built where, but the fact is that the 15 corridor will need to be built from Las Vegas to Victorville regardless of whether the connection to the Southern California rail network happens via Palmdale or over the Cajon pass. A culture of intercity rail is a very good thing for metro ridership, and for lowering emissions and the costs associated with operating a car.
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Post by thanks4goingmetro on Mar 31, 2011 16:37:57 GMT -8
Here's a link to the announcement of the draft of the EIR for DesertXpress: fastlane.dot.gov/2011/03/countdown-to-desertxpress-begins-with-environmental-impact-statement-.htmlFor this to be taken seriously I really wish they'd have taken (or do take in the future) a more pragmatic approach such as paying Amtrak to reinstate the service formerly known as Desert Wind only from Los Angeles to Las Vegas. The reason the service was cut in the first place was due to budget cuts the federal government imposed on Amtrak. It's not like the tracks or right-of-way don't still exist, which they do and they are currently being used by the Southwest Chief and MetroLink (some freight train traffic too maybe). That could be done relatively quickly and easily compared to going 0-60 on drawing up a new line from scratch. With service in place they could judge the demand and if people complain too much about the trip duration length. The next step for improvements from that point would be to take steps to lay tracks that are robust and straight enough to support high speed rail and run locomotives on them for the time savings of straight tracks with Positive Train Control (PTC) for speeds up to 110MPH until the funds are found to electrify it and replace the consists consists with high speed train models.
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Post by jeisenbe on Mar 31, 2011 22:15:13 GMT -8
The conventional, FRA-complaint diesel trains would take over 5.5 hours from LA to Las Vegas, without any delays for UP freight trains. This is not better than driving, and will not get enough people to switch to make a profit, especially if UP demands high fees to use their tracks.
Perhaps a couple trains on busy weekends could break even, and light European DMUs with bus-style engines could be much cheaper but are not currently an option
110 mph speeds most of the way and trains scheduled frequently throughout they day might be profitable, since the trip could be down to 4 hours, but it wouldn't be much faster than flying.
Now, with a trip time under 3 hours with high speed rail, your total trip is faster than flying or driving, and you can sell tickets at the same cost as airfare, and turn a tidy profit. I don't know if it will pay back the 6 billion investment, but the operations will certainly be profitable.
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Post by thanks4goingmetro on Apr 1, 2011 14:55:02 GMT -8
The conventional, FRA-complaint diesel trains would take over 5.5 hours from LA to Las Vegas, without any delays for UP freight trains. This is not better than driving, and will not get enough people to switch to make a profit, especially if UP demands high fees to use their tracks. Perhaps a couple trains on busy weekends could break even, and light European DMUs with bus-style engines could be much cheaper but are not currently an option 110 mph speeds most of the way and trains scheduled frequently throughout they day might be profitable, since the trip could be down to 4 hours, but it wouldn't be much faster than flying. Now, with a trip time under 3 hours with high speed rail, your total trip is faster than flying or driving, and you can sell tickets at the same cost as airfare, and turn a tidy profit. I don't know if it will pay back the 6 billion investment, but the operations will certainly be profitable. Assuming the trip time could be made in less than 4 hours with PTC at speeds of up to 110MPH on some stretches and making a minimum of stops is a trip I would be willing to make at around the price of a Pacific Surfliner ticket or maybe a little higher. I think it would have to be marketed to people to be more convenient than flying as in no worries about parking and the TSA security process involved with getting into the LAX. It would make for an excellent opportunity to build a ridership with what is within an arm's reach today and money that is being made available (and let's not forget this is a fraction of the cost building out HSR immediately). I really do want HSR but it's really expensive and not everyone can agree that it is justifiable as a priority. The route and features as I have explained can be an example to reinforce the case for rail service to Las Vegas in the way that the Pacific Surf Liner and Coast Starlight do in California already. They have riderships that stand to gain hugely from improvements, while an Los Angeles-Vegas connection has been left to fall by the wayside and waiting 10 years for funds to build HSR to Vegas is nice when the money is flowing but a diesel train to Las Vegas in a year or two is nicer with various upgrades in place.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Apr 1, 2011 19:10:15 GMT -8
And the fact that the DesertXpress project is moving forward while the former supporters of the maglev project have effectively abandoned it to die means nothing. Does the fact that polls have shown that the majority of people would rather have the maglev mean anything?
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Post by James Fujita on Apr 16, 2011 10:46:24 GMT -8
And the fact that the DesertXpress project is moving forward while the former supporters of the maglev project have effectively abandoned it to die means nothing. Does the fact that polls have shown that the majority of people would rather have the maglev mean anything? Which polls? Most polls are next to useless and meaningless, because they depend highly on the audience and how the questions are worded. People believe all sorts of wacky ideas. Huge numbers of Americans believe that evolution is a myth, Barack Obama was born in Kenya and alien spaceships have visited Earth. Doesn't mean it's true. At the end of the day, DesertXpress is still closer to becoming reality than maglev ever will be.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Apr 16, 2011 13:53:03 GMT -8
At the end of the day, DesertXpress is still closer to becoming reality than maglev ever will be. But is it the better project..... in the long run? It's only as far from reality as your willing to accept it.
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Post by Justin Walker on Apr 16, 2011 14:35:40 GMT -8
At the end of the day, DesertXpress is still closer to becoming reality than maglev ever will be. But is it the better project..... in the long run? It's only as far from reality as your willing to accept it. Many of us, myself included, do think that the DesertXpress project is the better of the two projects.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Apr 16, 2011 15:18:19 GMT -8
But is it the better project..... in the long run? It's only as far from reality as your willing to accept it. Many of us, myself included, do think that the DesertXpress project is the better of the two projects. Because of cost?
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Post by James Fujita on Apr 16, 2011 15:38:25 GMT -8
Many of us, myself included, do think that the DesertXpress project is the better of the two projects. Because of cost? Partially because of the cost. Whether we are discussing Farmdale, Crenshaw, LAX or intercity rail, cost is ALWAYS an issue. I like that DesertXpress is a private operation with private funding, whereas maglev was always dependent on handouts from Harry Reid. Maglev supporters had never been honest about the funding or how far that funding would take them. The proposed technology for DX is off the shelf and is proven. It ought to be compatible with the Cal HSR, even compatible with Metrolink. It is standard technology, after all and standard gauge.
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Post by jdrcrasher on Apr 17, 2011 12:44:53 GMT -8
Partially because of the cost. Whether we are discussing Farmdale, Crenshaw, LAX or intercity rail, cost is ALWAYS an issue. I like that DesertXpress is a private operation with private funding, whereas maglev was always dependent on handouts from Harry Reid. Maglev supporters had never been honest about the funding or how far that funding would take them. Okay, let's be honest: BOTH projects WILL need taxpayer funds. That was inevitable from the beginning. DesertXpress just applied for a $4.9 Billion in funding. With that much, you might as well throw in another $10 Billion for Phase 1 of the Maglev (comprised of two segments actually: LV-Primm and ARTIC-ONT). Sharing with CAHSR, I understand somewhat, but with Metrolink as well? That's too many slots on a single ROW, IMO. You have to go out of your way to make it worthwhile. And even then, Maglev would at least have transfer stations at ARTIC and ONT. Transfers aren't disastrous for ridership. If your willing to transfer from Metrolink to DesertXpress, at Palmdale and possibly Victorville, why not take it a step further and do Maglev to CAHSR?
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