Gold Line Ridership

[bluelineshawn]

They won't cut service on the gold line unless other lines are also being cut because Metro considers the gold line their marquee line. Although on that note, I think that Browne on the Bus Bench was correct about Metro changing the night schedule on the blue line to every 30 minutes. They claim that it is temporary due to construction work, but I think that is the excuse to cut back on service without having to acknowledge it. There is no construction work most nights or maybe even any nights.

As far as stations being heavily used, I think that it is still early and patterns take a while to change. I'm not as worried about ridership as I used to be. It won't get full until we get the connector, but it will get busier. Add to that once the economy turns around we're going to see TOD's at Little Tokyo, maybe Pico Aliso, and probably Mariachi. Long term I'm very optimistic which is a 180 degree turnaround for me.

[metrocenter]

I agree with bluelineshawn, ridership always takes awhile to build up. I don't think it's something to worry about at this point.

Often times people change their commuting habits when they start a new job or start at a new school. So look for ridership to improve as the economy improves, and when the new school year starts in the fall.

Having said that, the December numbers look very good. Normally ridership hits an annual minimum in December, but this year it hit an all-time high. Looks like about 7,000 new daily riders for the new extension - about a 33% increase.

[masonite]

Feb 15, 2010 10:19:38 GMT -8 metrocenter said:

I agree with bluelineshawn, ridership always takes awhile to build up. I don't think it's something to worry about at this point.

Often times people change their commuting habits when they start a new job or start at a new school. So look for ridership to improve as the economy improves, and when the new school year starts in the fall.

Having said that, the December numbers look very good. Normally ridership hits an annual minimum in December, but this year it hit an all-time high. Looks like about 7,000 new daily riders for the new extension - about a 33% increase.

I hear what you are saying and I agree that it takes time to build ridership and we can't really properly judge the line until after a year or so of operations. Long term the line can be made successful with a Downtown Connector.

Also, I agree that December can't really be seen as an ordinary month and should largely be thrown out the window. However, an additional 7,000 boardings a day is horrible for a 6 mile, $900M extension. Most people felt the MTA was low-balling their 13k additional ridership estimate for the Extension. If it doesn't hit that after a year, it will be even that much more of a disappointment.

Imagine if Expo only had 13k riders for its Culver City segment. People would be saying how low ridership is. However, for the Gold Line it seems like different expectations apply.

[Gokhan]

From the figure I estimate about 9,000 riders per day. This is roughly the same as the 10,000 estimate of Metro and not too far from the 13,000 goal.

When they speed up the line by adding gates, the ridership easily may double. As we all know by now, speed is crucial for these lines, especially given the $2.93 per gallon gas, which is very, very cheap compared to what people got used to paying over $4 at one point.

In fact, it's become annoying recently with the cheaper gas prices. Traffic is becoming unbearable again. I don't expect the gas prices to go up again in the near future. It's something manipulated by the oil countries. They jack up the prices first and then bring them down -- while the demands go down initially, it goes back to the original demand level after they bring down the prices to somewhere in the middle of jacked-up prices and original prices. That way, people get used to high prices and end up paying 50% more than before, with the same demand. It's a pretty smart tactic.

Expo should have decent ridership. It's an entirely different line through an entirely different corridor. But, if they fail to get signal priority and run trains slowly to be on the safe side, we may see disappointing ridership. 7th/Metro to Venice/Robertson should take about 25 minutes at most for Expo to be successful. The current estimate is about 32 minutes. So, work is needed to speed up Expo once the operations start.

[erict]

Metro will also be raising fairs in June (I think?), something long overdue, but this will lower ridership at least temporarily.

[metrocenter]

I see the first year of any line as a period of gradual user acceptance, combined with continuing improvements and tweaks by Metro. Remember, L.A. is still an auto town. It takes time to change people's habits, we need to give this line some time to catch on.

[masonite]

Feb 15, 2010 20:06:56 GMT -8 metrocenter said:

I see the first year of any line as a period of gradual user acceptance, combined with continuing improvements and tweaks by Metro. Remember, L.A. is still an auto town. It takes time to change people's habits, we need to give this line some time to catch on.

I know what you mean, but this is a transit dependent community and with LA traffic and parking costs we need to build lines that have decent ridership. Places like Phoenix that are a lot more auto-centric than LA have built similar rail lines that don't even have any other lines to connect to and still do 35k riders a day.

The Jan. numbers are out and quite frankly they are embarrassing. Even with the added bump for the festivities in Pasadena including the National Championship Game, the Gold Line could only muster 28k riders a weekday. The weekend numbers seem to hold up well, but I think a lot of that can be due to the Rose Parade and Rose Bowl.

The Green Line was seen as a travesty of poor planning in that it failed to connect to its main area destination in LAX and also failed to connect on the other end to one of our major commuter rail lines. Also, people complain like no tomorrow because it runs in the middle of a noisy freeway and no station development can go around it. Yet now the Gold Line is the same length and it still can't even get to the Green Line level of ridership.

I know I should not be so harsh and I will give it more time, but if this is the MTA's signature line then I fear for the future. The Downtown Connector cannot come soon enough to help fix this.

[rubbertoe]

January numbers are out, basically unchanged. While only the Gold Line was up December versus November, this month, Red and Green are up versus Blue and Gold marginally down. Total rail ridership in January is up 2,300 from December and down 345 from last January and stands at 293,723. This includes the Orange Line. The Jan-Feb numbers generally trend quite a bit higher.

Gas is stuck at $2.98. In each of the last 4 years, LA gas has risen at least $0.90 per gallon from January to June. Time to start investing in oil and TAP cards

[bluelineshawn]

Feb 16, 2010 14:36:27 GMT -8 masonite said:

Feb 15, 2010 20:06:56 GMT -8 metrocenter said:

I see the first year of any line as a period of gradual user acceptance, combined with continuing improvements and tweaks by Metro. Remember, L.A. is still an auto town. It takes time to change people's habits, we need to give this line some time to catch on.

I know what you mean, but this is a transit dependent community and with LA traffic and parking costs we need to build lines that have decent ridership. Places like Phoenix that are a lot more auto-centric than LA have built similar rail lines that don't even have any other lines to connect to and still do 35k riders a day.

The Jan. numbers are out and quite frankly they are embarrassing. Even with the added bump for the festivities in Pasadena including the National Championship Game, the Gold Line could only muster 28k riders a weekday. The weekend numbers seem to hold up well, but I think a lot of that can be due to the Rose Parade and Rose Bowl.

The Green Line was seen as a travesty of poor planning in that it failed to connect to its main area destination in LAX and also failed to connect on the other end to one of our major commuter rail lines. Also, people complain like no tomorrow because it runs in the middle of a noisy freeway and no station development can go around it. Yet now the Gold Line is the same length and it still can't even get to the Green Line level of ridership.

I know I should not be so harsh and I will give it more time, but if this is the MTA's signature line then I fear for the future. The Downtown Connector cannot come soon enough to help fix this.

The gold line has some obstacles to ridership that won't totally be overcome until the connector opens. Unfortunately (actually fortunately, just not for rail) buses will remain a better option for many people. For example for many riders the 720 is better located and goes to both downtown and westside jobs.

I think that although we won't see the full potential of the east la extension until the connector opens, I wouldn't underestimate how long it might take for the community to adjust their habits. I remember when the 105 fwy opened that it was lightly used for a long while. For a couple of years or more.

Happy Birthday!

[tonyw79sfv]

Well here's a silver lining (no pun intended), January Gold Line Sunday ridership is about 22k vs Orange Line's weekday ridership of 19k. The Gold Line has a pretty strong weekend showing since the extension opened. As for the Orange Line, I think the 902 may have taken a piece of its pie. The Gold Line weekend is also performing as good or better than the Green Line weekend.

[metrocenter]

What makes a rail line successful?

* It is easy to access from your home.
* It helps you get where you want to go, either directly, or with convenient transfers.
* The entire trip (including transfers) is faster and more comfortable than driving.

I would guess that, for most potential riders of the Gold Line, that line fails on the last point. It doesn't go into Downtown: it only skirts the edge. To get anywhere from Pasadena or East L.A., you have to transfer at Union Station to the subway. Add to that the well-documented slow spots along the line, and the result is a rail commute that takes longer than a car commute.

Long term, the Gold Line will be an excellent antidote for ever-growing freeway congestion. But until that time (or until the Connector is built), I would guess the Gold Line will remain a low-performing line.

[masonite]

Feb 17, 2010 14:44:28 GMT -8 metrocenter said:

What makes a rail line successful?

* It is easy to access from your home.
* It helps you get where you want to go, either directly, or with convenient transfers.
* The entire trip (including transfers) is faster and more comfortable than driving.

I would guess that, for most potential riders of the Gold Line, that line fails on the last point. It doesn't go into Downtown: it only skirts the edge. To get anywhere from Pasadena or East L.A., you have to transfer at Union Station to the subway. Add to that the well-documented slow spots along the line, and the result is a rail commute that takes longer than a car commute.

Long term, the Gold Line will be an excellent antidote for ever-growing freeway congestion. But until that time (or until the Connector is built), I would guess the Gold Line will remain a low-performing line.

I'd also add that parking costs are a key component that is often under-reported as an issue here. I can get pretty quickly to LAX, but almost always use alternative transportation due to the bill I would get for all but the shortest trips. Same for Downtown.

I know it is controversial, but I really support Senator Lowenthal's bill, which largely separates out parking costs and lets people avoid paying for someone else's parking costs. I currently use a parking cash out with my employer, but even this is flawed. Other employees get their parking paid pre-tax (a $75 monthly value), while my stipend of $75 is taxed.

[James Fujita]

the Green Line's grand opening was in 1995. The Gold Line extension hasn't even had its first anniversary yet.


I'm curious to see what happens with the Gold Line extension when a) gas prices make their traditional annual climb upwards and b) summer festival season arrives.

Starting with Fiesta Broadway in May and also with Obon and Nisei Week in July-August, there should be plenty of of busy weekends downtown, and the Little Tokyo station should be able to grab at least some of that crowd....

[spokker]

It's like a broken record at this point but it's really all about the downtown connector.

[masonite]

I will say in the Gold Line's defense, its safety record has been strong when a lot of naysayers thought it would be just like the Blue Line. This would have been a disaster for the MTA if the Line would have been an accident magnet. Nevertheless, I'll be looking forward to a line opening that is not the Gold Line and that can have strong ridership from Day 1.

On the Green Line, one of the reasons why it has been able to pick up ridership over the years is because people have realized it is a great way to travel East-West even if it is a little out of the way, because it is so fast compared to street bus travel.

[bluelineshawn]

Feb 18, 2010 14:27:37 GMT -8 masonite said:

I will say in the Gold Line's defense, its safety record has been strong when a lot of naysayers thought it would be just like the Blue Line. This would have been a disaster for the MTA if the Line would have been an accident magnet. Nevertheless, I'll be looking forward to a line opening that is not the Gold Line and that can have strong ridership from Day 1.

The gold line is much more grade separated than the blue line and travels much slower on the at-grade portion on average than the blue line. And I agree about Expo hitting the ground running. It will bump the gold line as Metro's showcase line.

[rubbertoe]

Well, the expected upturn in the February numbers is indeed happening. Gold Line is above 30,000 for the first time ever. The "year over year" percentage gains from last February are also nice: Red +4.0, Blue +4.7, Green +7.7, Orange +6.8, Gold +37.0 with the Eastside Extension. YOY combined ridership is up 7.3% and is 316,379 during the weekdays. The all time high was 341,911 during July of 2008 when gas went up to $4.87. That ridership record may very well fall this summer.

RT

IMG]http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/GoldLine02-10.png[/IMG]

[jeisenbe]

Thanks for the new chart. It looks like the extension is getting about 10,000 riders so far.

Will you update the charts for the other lines this month?

[rubbertoe]

Red Line is now up for February. I generally do not post the Green and Blue line ridership, since the idea was initially to see if the EE would add significantly to the Red Line, which was the only connecting rail line at Union Station. I could certainly start a couple new threads showing the Blue and Green if you like, since I have them.

RT

[jeisenbe]

Yes, please.

[bluelineshawn]

Yes, please.

[tonyw79sfv]

March numbers are in, the Gold Line is garnering 31,544 riders daily! Weekend numbers are 21,583 for Saturday and 20,447 for Sunday, beating both Green and Orange Line weekend daily ridership for their respective days (the Green Line is still higher for the weekdays though).

[rubbertoe]

Thanks for the heads up Tony. I don't plot the weekend numbers, I actually don't even keep track of them. But, like you said, the weekday ridership jumped up over 1,000 over February. The previous Feb-Mar jump was over 2,000 so this increase isn't necessarily Earth shaking, but having the ridership over 30,000 now for two months in a row is definitely nice to see.

The total rail ridership YOY is up 12,396 with 7,251 of that due to the Gold Line, primarily the EE.

img]http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/GoldLine03-10.jpg[/img]

[metrocenter]

Here are the boardings per station, for each line, for March 2010:

Red+Purple Lines: 9,218
Blue Line: 3,537
Green Line: 2,675
Gold Line: 1,453

[jamesinclair]

I enjoy looking at these graphs for all lines every month.

I was wondering if it would be possible to add a line before January of every year, so one could easily find the relevant month to compare year over year changes?

[redwings105th]

Or maybe for the fiscal year? I'm not sure if that would matter though........

[rubbertoe]

April numbers are up. Up about 800 month over month, and quite a bit year over year since we are still comparing against pre-EE ridership. The Blue Line was the only other line up month over month, so this looks very good for the Gold Line. Going to have to update the chart soon and change the 35,000 to 40,000 on the high end.

Been pretty busy lately, but I will take a look at the comments and see if I can add some of the requested information next month.

[rubbertoe]

Looks like the 40,000 magic number will have to wait until next summer. July ridership dropped 3,000 from the June all time high, but is still 1,800 above the May number.

The first EE month was November 2009, and ridership then was 28,478. The current level of 34,285 is 5,807 above that, or a bit over 20% higher. The other lines combined in the same 2 months for comparison went from 248,426 to 271,895, or about a 9% increase. So a ballpark guess would be that half the ridership increase from the EE opening is seasonal, while the other half is new riders coming on board.

The other interesting trend concerns the gas prices. In the years 2005-2009, gas prices rose every summer. They then came down every year except 2009, where they remained essentially unchanged at ~$3.00 per gallon since then, and up until now. In 2005 to 2008, the summer peaks got progressively higher, with 2008 being the large jump. I also see that comparing YOY from July 2009 to July 2010, the prices are up 4.7%. The August number is $3.10 or the same as July. Without trying to read too much into the numbers, always a danger, you might almost say that the recession has had a moderating effect. Reducing summer demand, therefore eliminating the usual summer spike?

Concerning whether the EE has increased Red Line ridership. It's hard to tell, but here is what I looked at. I looked at Red Line ridership change from November-July in 2006-09, with the last period being when the EE opened. The ridership increase in the 4 years was as follows rounded to the nearest 1,000:

Nov-06 to Jul-07: 10,000
Nov-07 to Jul-08: 26,000 Gas Spike
Nov-08 to Jul-09: 23,000
Nov-09 to Jul-10: 15,000 EE open during this period

Basically I was trying to see how many more bodies were boarding the Red Line in November versus the previous July, to see if the EE opening period produced a significant number more. I think the conclusion that I come to is that other factors make it hard to reach a conclusion. Perhaps someone more statistically inclined could be more definitive, or maybe we just need to wait a bit longer? With say 12,000 extra Gold Line riders on the EE, if say 20% then transferred onto the Red Line, you are looking at 2,400. The 2,400 could be part of the 15,000.



Note: Graph updated to show fare increase, should follow the month to the left over time.

[jamesinclair]

" I think the conclusion that I come to is that other factors make it hard to reach a conclusion. Perhaps someone more statistically inclined could be more definitive, or maybe we just need to wait a bit longer? With say 12,000 extra Gold Line riders on the EE, if say 20% then transferred onto the Red Line, you are looking at 2,400. The 2,400 could be part of the 15,000."

The solution would be to run a regression and find which factors have a higher correlation. You could look at gas prices, temperature/seasons, unemployment, route miles etc


What I would be interested in seeing is if the 10,000 new EE riders are new to transit or simply moved from a bus line.

[spokker]

Rode the Eastside Extension yesterday to meet a friend and a lot of people are parking at Atlantic and transferring to the Dodger Express at Union Station (which is also what my friend did). Plenty of people in blue on the Gold Line.

Off topic but something I found interesting yesterday was that the Gold Line operator was required to slow down for a homicide investigation that was happening on the sidewalk in broad daylight. The entire street was shut down and the train was required to slink past at 10-15 MPH. At least the trains weren't shut down like the street was.