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Post by rubbertoe on Mar 25, 2010 14:10:45 GMT -8
As of February 2010. One thing that I would note when comparing all 4 lines is that the Blue Line is the only one that seems to have stabilized in terms of ridership. All 3 of the others show a more or less upward trend over the last 5 years. The Green Line also seems to be topping off. At first I thought that it might be related to how long the line has been up and running. But the Red Line has been running a long time (was the NoHo extension in 2001?) and over the last 5 years went from 115,000 to 147,000. Must be that the line has reached capacity? I seem to remember someone in another thread saying that they ran 3 car trains mostly that were crowded. And I do see they are running 5 minute headways during the rush hours...
IMG]http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/BlueLine02-10.jpg[/IMG]
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Post by ieko on Mar 25, 2010 17:40:16 GMT -8
Nice, thanks for posting these.
From what I've observed over several years, my guess would be that it's near capacity. I think what'll put it over the edge are expansion in the system in general, especially with the Green Line and Downtown Connector. I feel like if the Green Line had some shielding from the elements and went to LAX, the south bay, and Norwalk Metrolink Station we'd be seeing better ridership on the Green Line as well as the Blue Line. Eventually some of this will get fixed, so we'll see.
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Post by masonite on Mar 25, 2010 21:02:03 GMT -8
Nice, thanks for posting these. From what I've observed over several years, my guess would be that it's near capacity. I think what'll put it over the edge are expansion in the system in general, especially with the Green Line and Downtown Connector. I feel like if the Green Line had some shielding from the elements and went to LAX, the south bay, and Norwalk Metrolink Station we'd be seeing better ridership on the Green Line as well as the Blue Line. Eventually some of this will get fixed, so we'll see. The Blue Line has little transit oriented or really any other type of development near almost all of its stations despite being the oldest line. I don't believe the Blue Line is at capacity, but some people don't like riding it because it can be tough to get a seat during rush hours. The Green Line has also had little development around its stations. However, I think the Green Line has attracted a lot of its ridership over the years, because people realize how quickly and efficiently it goes east-west across this part of the city. Instead of taking a bus down a street like Manchester, people will take one up to the Green Line and then whip across town. The Red/Purple Lines have seen a boatload of development around their stations over the years. Downtown has attracted thousands of residents and Hollywood and the Wilshire District (or K-Town if you prefer) have seen a strong renaissance. I think a lot of this is due to the subway itself, which has become not only a major transportation artery for these areas but also an anchor. Of course, the subway is easier to build around than light rail. The Gold Line seems to have quite a few opportunities to build quality development around. When I first took it, I thought that it didn't have great connections to key neighborhoods and districts as there was often a parking lot or some barrier between the stations and destinations even in Chinatown and Pasadena. This is certainly to be expected on a new line. Of course, a few well placed and well thought out developments can correct this. I do expect the Gold Line to increase ridership over the next 3-4 years probably more than the Blue or Green Lines because of this (although Expo Phase I might give the Blue a little boost in ridership because of synergies between the lines).
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Post by metrocenter on Mar 25, 2010 22:38:29 GMT -8
In L.A., most transit trips are not for shopping or to have a night out. The main reason people take transit is for their daily commute to work/school. These are non-elective trips (you have to go to work or get to class), and the alternatives (for most people) are transit vs. driving. And furthermore, most people don't take transit because they love it. They take transit because driving is too painful - it's the traffic plus the financial cost. But mostly the traffic.
So what are the alternatives to the Blue Line? The 710, the 110, and streets. All of these options really suck with traffic. If I worked in downtown, even if I weren't a transit dork, I'd probably take the Blue Line every day, because from my house I can reliably get to the financial district in 40 minutes, as opposed to the 40-80 minute stress-fest of driving. The cost difference ($2.50 round-trip vs. $20+/day parking) is just a side benefit.
The Gold Line is a different story. It goes to Downtown, but truthfully the 110 from Pasadena isn't that bad with traffic sometimes. Other times it's horrible: it really depends. I think a lot of people like me will guess which will be more convenient on a given day. And more often than not will take the gamble that their commute just as quick, and more convenient, by car than by train.
Moreover, with the Gold Line, unless you work at Union Station or Olvera Street, you pretty much have to transfer when you get Downtown.
The Red Line does the best of all the lines. It is super-fast and goes through the biggest job centers (Downtown, Hollywood, Mid-Wilshire). (Note that I said through job centers, as opposed to the Gold Line, which comes tantalizingly close yet still misses the mark). But most importantly the 101 Freeway is one of the worst commutes in the region, so it benefits because the alternative is bone-crushing traffic.
All of this suggests to me that, more than any other line, the Gold Line (both branches) will by far benefit the most from the Regional Connector. The Connector will make the trip to central Downtown far more feasible for potential Gold Line riders. I think there are a lot of commuters in the Northeast (Pasadena, etc.) and the Eastside who are on the verge of taking the train to work, but don't want the perceived inconvenience (sorry, but it's true) of walking 15 minutes in hot or wet weather, dressed up, from Little Tokyo to Bunker Hill or points beyond.
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Post by tonyw79sfv on Mar 26, 2010 0:04:31 GMT -8
In L.A., most transit trips are not for shopping or to have a night out. The main reason people take transit is for their daily commute to work/school. These are non-elective trips (you have to go to work or get to class), and the alternatives (for most people) are transit vs. driving. And furthermore, most people don't take transit because they love it. They take transit because driving is too painful - it's the traffic plus the financial cost. But mostly the traffic. So what are the alternatives to the Blue Line? The 710, the 110, and streets. All of these options really suck with traffic. If I worked in downtown, even if I weren't a transit dork, I'd probably take the Blue Line every day, because from my house I can reliably get to the financial district in 40 minutes, as opposed to the 40-80 minute stress-fest of driving. The cost difference ($2.50 round-trip vs. $20+/day parking) is just a side benefit. The Gold Line is a different story. It goes to Downtown, but truthfully the 110 from Pasadena isn't that bad with traffic sometimes. Other times it's horrible: it really depends. I think a lot of people like me will guess which will be more convenient on a given day. And more often than not will take the gamble that their commute just as quick, and more convenient, by car than by train. Moreover, with the Gold Line, unless you work at Union Station or Olvera Street, you pretty much have to transfer when you get Downtown. The Red Line does the best of all the lines. It is super-fast and goes through the biggest job centers (Downtown, Hollywood, Mid-Wilshire). (Note that I said through job centers, as opposed to the Gold Line, which comes tantalizingly close yet still misses the mark). But most importantly the 101 Freeway is one of the worst commutes in the region, so it benefits because the alternative is bone-crushing traffic. All of this suggests to me that, more than any other line, the Gold Line (both branches) will by far benefit the most from the Regional Connector. The Connector will make the trip to central Downtown far more feasible for potential Gold Line riders. I think there are a lot of commuters in the Northeast (Pasadena, etc.) and the Eastside who are on the verge of taking the train to work, but don't want the perceived inconvenience (sorry, but it's true) of walking 15 minutes in hot or wet weather, dressed up, from Little Tokyo to Bunker Hill or points beyond. I have to agree that the Red/Purple Lines goes through activity centers, and there's one reason that those rail lines can achieve that; by running underneath the streets that serves the area. A good map that we can based how we should route potential subway lines is by looking at the Metro Rapid map. One thing to note about our light rail lines is that if they never deviated off a preexisting ROW onto street medians or grade separations, lines like the Blue Line would not reach downtown LA's financial center and LA Live/Convention Center area at the northern end and downtown Long Beach at the southern end, however, Compton's government and shopping district is well served along the ROW; looking at historicaerials.com, I found that Flower Street looked to be once a two-way street before becoming southbound one way and accommodating the Blue Line. The Gold Line would not make it to Union Station; although, by luck, the GL's ROW cuts perpendicularly across Colorado Boulevard in Old Town Pasadena serving the bustling shopping/dining area nicely. The Orange Line, formerly a freight rail ROW, does serve two community colleges and the Van Nuys Civic Center, but the buses have to leave the ROW and run in mixed traffic to service Warner Center.
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Post by kenalpern on Mar 26, 2010 4:21:34 GMT -8
Nice, thanks for posting these. From what I've observed over several years, my guess would be that it's near capacity. I think what'll put it over the edge are expansion in the system in general, especially with the Green Line and Downtown Connector. I feel like if the Green Line had some shielding from the elements and went to LAX, the south bay, and Norwalk Metrolink Station we'd be seeing better ridership on the Green Line as well as the Blue Line. Eventually some of this will get fixed, so we'll see. I think you've pretty much stated it rather well, ieko. Right now, there is some extraordinary interest in the Westchester area to expand Century/Aviation as a commercial center, so the future Crenshaw Line will be a huge draw to the Green Line (to say nothing of allowing a LAX connection). Furthermore, there is recent interest in TOD near the Vermont station (although I don't know the details about that). I predict that the Blue and Green Lines will be nearing capacity in amazing ways (the Blue is kind of already there) with the Downtown Connector and Crenshaw Lines, to say nothing about the South Bay extension to the Galleria Mall.
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Post by rubbertoe on Apr 14, 2010 12:18:23 GMT -8
March numbers are now out. The Blue Line had the smallest increase over February of all the lines, 18 to be exact The YOY numbers are also down about 2%, with the Blue Line again being the only rail line that has a YOY negative ridership change. img]http://i882.photobucket.com/albums/ac27/RubberToe420/BlueLine03-10.jpg[/img]
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Post by metrocenter on Apr 14, 2010 13:10:37 GMT -8
Well the Blue Line has been impacted over the past month or so, with work proceeding on the Flower Street tracks related to the Expo Line (new crossovers and now a new junction). Most of this work has been on weekends: is it possible this work has temporarily scared a few riders away?
In any case, it will be more interesting to see how high the numbers go in the summer months, starting in May. The annual peaks always occur in the summer.
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Post by jeisenbe on Apr 14, 2010 18:19:41 GMT -8
Construction is certainly decreasing weekend ridership. This chart is weekday, but perhaps the closures that start Friday evening and extend to Monday morning are making a difference.
Unemployment is particularly bad in South LA and the Gateway Cities along the Blue Line, where many people used to work in construction, retail, or government services which have seen big job losses and have been slow to recover. There is even evidence for a small number of immigrants leaving for home countries now that jobs are too scarce.
But I expect ridership will increase in the summer and will rocket up when the Expo line is done. That transfer at Pico will be very useful for getting to jobs further west.
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Post by metrocenter on Apr 15, 2010 9:43:47 GMT -8
Here are the boardings per station, for each line, for March 2010:
Red+Purple Lines: 9,218 Blue Line: 3,537 Green Line: 2,675 Gold Line: 1,453
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Post by jeisenbe on Apr 15, 2010 22:13:18 GMT -8
Metrocenter, is there data about total passenger miles per line, or is that unknown due to the proof-of-payment system?
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Post by rubbertoe on May 19, 2010 13:03:36 GMT -8
April numbers are up. The Blue Line was up 160 MOM but down 2,554 YOY.
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Post by metrocenter on May 19, 2010 13:10:27 GMT -8
Metrocenter, is there data about total passenger miles per line, or is that unknown due to the proof-of-payment system? Sorry for the delay...my figures are simply total ridership divided by number of stations. I don't have a separate source of data.
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Post by bluelineshawn on Jun 21, 2010 19:18:41 GMT -8
My kids went to the Lakers parade today and said that even with the extra service blue line trains were packed! When boarding after the parade they had to wait for several trains (almost an hour so they say) before they could squeeze on. This was after they gave up on boarding at Grand and boarded at Pico.
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Post by jeisenbe on Jun 21, 2010 20:20:42 GMT -8
My kids went to the Lakers parade today and said that even with the extra service blue line trains were packed! When boarding after the parade they had to wait for several trains (almost an hour so they say) before they could squeeze on. This was after they gave up on boarding at Grand and boarded at Pico. That's a shame. The Lakers offered to pay the cost of the parade, including police coverage. Metro should have run trains at rush-hour frequencies (every 6 minutes) and sent the overtime bill to the Lakers.
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Post by masonite on Jun 21, 2010 21:22:48 GMT -8
My kids went to the Lakers parade today and said that even with the extra service blue line trains were packed! When boarding after the parade they had to wait for several trains (almost an hour so they say) before they could squeeze on. This was after they gave up on boarding at Grand and boarded at Pico. I went as well. The Blue Line was packed going to the parade and the transfer from the Purple Line was tight (the first blue line train I tried to get on was too packed and the sheriff's held back the crowd well. The Blue Line was definately overwhelmed on the way back. We got off at Grand as well, but I decided to walk back to 7th Metro as it was totally overwhelmed. The 720 at Western was overwhelmed as well as two packed busses went by without stopping. Too bad Expo wasn't up and running. I would have had a much easier time and it would have helped with capacity. The Blue Line at Pico and Grand had what seemed like over a 1000 people lined up trying to get on the platforms. Overall, it was great to see public transit play such a key role for the city, but really only the subway could handle the crowds.
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Post by masonite on Jun 21, 2010 21:27:33 GMT -8
My kids went to the Lakers parade today and said that even with the extra service blue line trains were packed! When boarding after the parade they had to wait for several trains (almost an hour so they say) before they could squeeze on. This was after they gave up on boarding at Grand and boarded at Pico. That's a shame. The Lakers offered to pay the cost of the parade, including police coverage. Metro should have run trains at rush-hour frequencies (every 6 minutes) and sent the overtime bill to the Lakers. They did run at full capacity (extra long trains on the subway), but the Blue Line can't run longer than 3 car trains and they seemed to be at the max. 6 minute frequency. Unfortunately, the Blue Line had no chance to handle that type of load. It will be interesting to see how Expo can handle the large Coliseum crowds for USC football. Light rail only has so much capacity. Another thing to note, on my Purple Line train over half the people on it made the mistake of thinking they were on the Red Line and had to get off at Normandie and circle back. They didn't know they had to look at the front of the train or screens (now) to see what train they were on (pretty amazing, because I think it is much more clear now with the screens and announcements, but most people just asked where do I catch the Red Line and didn't pay attention).
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Post by wad on Jun 22, 2010 4:12:48 GMT -8
The wait at 7th Street Metro Center after the parade was 30-45 minutes regardless of which train you wanted.
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Post by masonite on Jun 22, 2010 12:35:47 GMT -8
The wait at 7th Street Metro Center after the parade was 30-45 minutes regardless of which train you wanted. That may have been the case. I enjoyed a walk through downtown given the nice weather and ended up boarding the Purple Line at Pershing Square no problem. Also, there was plenty of room on the train, although I imagine the Red Line was at capacity.
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Post by jeisenbe on Jun 23, 2010 6:56:12 GMT -8
The shared portion of the Blue Line plus Expo Line will run at 3 minute headways in rush hour starting next year, right? Couldn't Metro have tried out 3 minute headways on the Blue Line for this event? Perhaps we don't have enough trains to make that happen.
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Post by masonite on Jun 23, 2010 8:25:00 GMT -8
The shared portion of the Blue Line plus Expo Line will run at 3 minute headways in rush hour starting next year, right? Couldn't Metro have tried out 3 minute headways on the Blue Line for this event? Perhaps we don't have enough trains to make that happen. From what I understand, the Blue Line cannot operate at anything more than 5-6 minute headways, because the street running portion really messes up traffic flow at any more than that. The very short portion where the Blue and Expo lines will run together above ground (from Washington to the tunnel just north of Pico) is a very short street running segment and doesn't have this limitation.
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Post by rubbertoe on Aug 18, 2010 6:50:34 GMT -8
The Blue Line in July wins the award for largest % ridership drop for the YOY period. Down 5.70%.
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Post by Gokhan on Aug 18, 2010 9:50:08 GMT -8
cheap gas + fare hikes = low transit ridership
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Post by metrocenter on Sept 13, 2010 22:37:31 GMT -8
According to Metro's numbers, June marked a milestone for light rail in L.A.
Light-rail daily boardings: 164,014 Heavy-rail daily boardings: 162,648
I believe this is the first time in at least 10 years where light rail ridership exceeded heavy rail ridership. The Eastside Extension helped put light rail over the top.
In July things temporarily reversed, with light rail down quite a bit. But with all the new light rail lines coming online over the next several years, I would guess the Red/Purple Lines will soon lose the battle for ridership stats for good.
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Post by jeisenbe on Sept 15, 2010 0:51:33 GMT -8
With all the new light rail lines coming online over the next several years, I would guess the Red/Purple Lines will soon lose the battle for ridership stats for good. Depends on whether the subway to Westwood is finished before the regional connector, Expo Phase 2, and other projects.
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Post by metrocenter on Sept 15, 2010 6:27:42 GMT -8
Well I'm assuming the subway extension won't be done in the next five years. Expo Phases 1 and 2, and the Gold Line extension to Azusa, are supposed to all be online in the next five years. And those three projects are expected to add 80-100k daily boardings.
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Post by masonite on Sept 15, 2010 9:16:22 GMT -8
Well I'm assuming the subway extension won't be done in the next five years. Expo Phases 1 and 2, and the Gold Line extension to Azusa, are supposed to all be online in the next five years. And those three projects are expected to add 80-100k daily boardings. Light rail should pass the heavy rail ridership shortly, but it is pretty amazing that the heavy rail ridership still exceeds it now given that the light rail network has over 3.5 times as many route miles. Also, our heavy rail line is really a secondary route (I think all original planners envisioned an East-West crosstown line as the main subway line) with an odd two station stub for the Purple Line. Furthermore, the Red/Purple Lines keep gaining ridership steadily. This has a lot to do with the development around these stations. The comparison between some of these areas before subway and after is pretty amazing. I wish a paper like the LA Times would do an in depth story and analysis on the subway's effect on the city. Overall, I see the Gold Line and the Red/Purple Lines having the greatest potential for growth of our current lines. It seems like the Blue Line growth has really leveled off and the Green Line has no real development opportunities. The Gold Line should have a lot more TOD as the economy improves. Even with the Green Line to an LAX people mover, I would expect modest ridership gains, but not necessarily a windfall. Anyway, I think the more exciting stats to watch are total ridership. I will take great pleasure when we exceed BART total ridership for example. It would be awesome if we could get to 1 Million rail ridership, which would be about on par with Washington DC. However, even with 30/10, I see only about 750k in ridership, at least that is my guess.
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Post by jeisenbe on Sept 15, 2010 12:25:39 GMT -8
It seems like the Blue Line growth has really leveled off and the Green Line has no real development opportunities. The Blue Line could gain a great deal of ridership if Long Beach every manages to increase the number of office jobs downtown, and transform the areas along Long Beach Blvd to higher-density (and nicer) housing. There are plans for several office towers along Ocean, and a couple residential condo or apartment developments near the Anaheim station. If frequency at rush hour was increased, many people might switch from the 51 bus (which comes every 10 to 12 minutes, as good as the Blue Line) for trips within Long Beach, and with more development there would be more "reverse" commuting. I think the Regional Connector will also make the Blue Line a much more desireable commuter line, by providing direct connections to more of Downtown, plus Union Station. The neighborhoods along Washington and the right-of-way in South LA are very poor now, but could attract more mid-income condos and cheap apartments, at least. But the perception (and reality) of crime, few jobs, and low household income in the areas between Long Beach and Downtown LA have detered development from most Blue Line stations until now.
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Post by rubbertoe on Sept 15, 2010 13:02:54 GMT -8
And the August numbers are out. A small bounce up from the July drop, but nothing Earth shattering. Above 80k at least.
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Post by metrocenter on Sept 15, 2010 14:20:56 GMT -8
Someone recently said: focus on the transit lines that work. The Blue Line works, very well, transporting 80,000 people per weekday. That's all the more amazing given it's design issues (double-tracked line with no express segment, stops at the edge of Downtown, street-running sections, etc.) Yes, the Regional Connector will make it a much better line. But there are several other things that would make the Blue Line even better: - signal priority or grade separation in Long Beach,
- grade separation along Washington,
- triple-track the line and implement skip-stop express service, and
- an LA Live terminal branch.
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