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Post by Jason Saunders on Nov 6, 2008 17:04:51 GMT -8
www.scpr.org/programs/airtalk/Air Talk with Larry Mantle this morning Interviews Roger Snoble of Metro, Quenton Kopp of the High Speed Rail Authority and Steve Hymon of the L.A. Times, Bottle Neck blog Click the below link to listen to the conversation or the airtalk link above and select it half way down the page: www.publicradio.org/tools/media/player/kpcc/news/shows/airtalk/2008/11/20081106_airtalk2?start=00:00:01&end=00:35:01Two transportation measures passed on Tuesday that may fundamentally change the way people get around in California. Proposition 1A authorized the state to issue $10 billion in bonds to begin building a European-Japanese style bullet train system between Orange County and San Francisco. Prop R, meanwhile, institutes a half-cent sales tax to raise some $40 billion for a list of projects including the Expo line to Santa Monica, the Wilshire subway, and the Gold Line extensions. Larry talks to transportation officials including Quentin Kopp, Chairman of the California High Speed Rail Authority, Roger Snoble, Chief Executive Officer of Metro and the Los Angeles Times' Steve Hymon about how these plans will work and what you can expect to see happening in the next few years.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 6, 2008 18:21:52 GMT -8
Thank you for the link SAUNDERS.
I just listened to the interview of Roger Snoble of Metro, in addition to the Chair of the CA high-speed rail authority. Here are the highlights:
(1) There are two projects on the Measure R list that have the top priority: Expo Line Phase 2 to Santa Monica and Gold Line Phase 2 to Azusa.
(2) The two projects will be built simultaneously and the construction will begin in 2010 for both of them.
(3) Federal funding both increases the cost and delays the construction of the projects substantially.
(3) With the passage of Measure R, they will no longer seek federal money for either project and they will both be built with local funds. In this way they will be built faster and cheaper.
(4) Measure R will also include money for the light-rail vehicles and the maintenance facility, in addition to the $735 million, for Gold Line Phase 2.
(5) They don't expect federal money for any project in the next four - six years because of the recession.
(6) According to the chair of the high-speed rail, that too will begin construction in 2010.
(7) Subway extension will take a long time, 20 years to Westwood if funded entirely by Measure R.
(8) The most time-consuming part of subway construction is not tunnel boring but excavating for and building the stations. The tunnel boring can be done with multiple sets of machines.
So, we should be really grateful that Measure appears to have passed. Otherwise, there would be no rail projects in the near future.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 6, 2008 18:28:23 GMT -8
Another note if you haven't heard already: Arnold has asked for a 1.5% sales-tax hike. If it happens, LA sales tax will become 10.25%. We are so blessed that this is happening after the elections; otherwise, Measure R would have failed.
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Post by spokker on Nov 6, 2008 19:31:11 GMT -8
We got ours.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 7, 2008 15:58:00 GMT -8
Communities say take a hike to Fix Expo, Bus Riders Union, and Gloria MolinaThere have been two phony community organizations and a politician who have used the race card to promote their hidden agendas. Their argument has been that Metro is racist and their latest scheme, Measure R, is racist and unfair to their minority communities. After the Measure R votes have been tallied, the following map of the distribution of votes by cities was made: LA Times Bottleneck blogThe map clearly shows that virtually every city with a large minority/low-income population supported Measure R with a 2/3 majority. The cities where Measure R failed were almost all affluent and white populations, such as South Bay, Pasadena, and the 210 corridor. This clearly shows that minority and low-income areas in Los Angeles understand and value the need for transit, and they don't agree with the phony community organizations such as Fix Expo and Bus Riders Union or the politician who uses the race card against transit -- Gloria Molina. By voting with a 2/3 majority for Measure R, the minority and low-income communities not only made a strong statement for transit but also asked Fix Expo, Bus Riders Union, and Gloria Molina to stop being a nuisance and step down for good.
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Post by metrocenter on Nov 7, 2008 16:23:32 GMT -8
The strongest support for Measure R came from the inner Gateway Cities (aka Southeast Cities) - Huntington Park, South Gate, Maywood, Cudahy, Bell Gardens, and Lynwood - as well as the Westside cities of West Hollywood and Santa Monica.
The minority-rich Southeast Cities - my old hood - are cursed with a spacious suburban grid that is characterized by gridlock and thus is almost impervious to transit solutions involving buses. I can tell you from experience: there is a real desperation in that region for access to the rest of the county. The rail system provides that. The Blue Line (and soon the Eastside Line) connects the people of the region to the growing rail network, bringing job and school opportunities that would not otherwise exist.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 7, 2008 19:47:33 GMT -8
Alert -- Measure R on the brink of failing142,478 ballots have just been added to the Measure R votes. This is the trend: Previous: 2,423,943 votes 67.41% Current: 2,565,521 votes 67.22% It's obvious that the absentee and provisional ballots are favoring Measure R much less. Quick calculation: New ballots: 90,973 Yes, 51,505 no --> 63.85% Yes Estimated remaining ballots: 605,000 - 142,478 = 462,522 So, if the remaining ballots have the same trend, we will have additional 295,323 Yes and 167,199 No. Therefore: Yes = 1,633,442 + 90,973 + 295,323 = 2,019,738 No = 789,601 + 51,505 + 167,199 = 1,008,305 Estimated final result: 66.70% (66.67% or more is needed)This is only a +0.03% = 1,042 out of 3,028,043 votes margin! So, consider Measure R in deep coma. We won't know if it will make it until every single vote is counted by early December. And, if Measure R fails, it will be a death sentence for LA transit.
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Post by whitmanlam on Nov 7, 2008 19:47:41 GMT -8
That's very interesting the East San Fernando Valley voted for Measure R while the West San Fernando Valley went opposite. Antelope Valley cities Lancaster/Palmdale did not support the measure at all, as did the cities that border Orange county. This could be because of apathy towards mass transit .... but more likely, they fear losing business to Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside County who would now have a lower sales tax.
The San Gabriel Valley is a boondoggle. After Metro Board refused to fully fund the Foothill Goldline Extension. The leaders of those Valley cities (Pasadena, Azusa, Monrovia, etc.) chose to retaliate by opposing Measure R. However, as it shows on the map, not all their constituents agree. Azusa, Pasadena, and El Monte residents in favor.
It's been a political game. One that has no winners. San Gabriel Valley governments feel neglected, and that their tax dollars yield no promised results. They also resent any transit projects that improve access to the congested Westside. I myself am shocked that the Crenshaw line is higher on the list than the Foothill Goldline. But I am more shocked by the petty behavior of our elected leaders.
Can anyone agree on anything that helps everyone ?? Is it always a game of One-Upman-ship seeing who can take more tax dollars from somewhere else, who can steal more jobs away from another region of LA County..... ??
Why can't we all just get along... and build this damn thing ?
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Post by masonite on Nov 7, 2008 20:46:14 GMT -8
Alert -- Measure R on the brink of failing142,478 ballots have just been added to the Measure R votes. This is the trend: Previous: 2,423,943 votes 67.41% Current: 2,565,521 votes 67.22% It's obvious that the absentee and provisional ballots are favoring Measure R much less. Quick calculation: New ballots: 90,973 Yes, 51,505 no --> 63.85% Yes Estimated remaining ballots: 605,000 - 142,478 = 462,522 So, if the remaining ballots have the same trend, we will have additional 295,323 Yes and 167,199 No. Therefore: Yes = 1,633,442 + 90,973 + 295,323 = 2,019,738 No = 789,601 + 51,505 + 167,199 = 1,008,305 Estimated final result: 66.70% (66.67% or more is needed)This is only a +0.03% = 1,042 out of 3,028,043 votes margin! So, consider Measure R in deep coma. We won't know if it will make it until every single vote is counted by early December. And, if Measure R fails, it will be a death sentence for LA transit. The word is that the returns added today were older absentee ballots and didn't include provisional ballots and the provisional ballots have favored Measure R much more. Nevertheless, it makes me a little nervous. I believe we will know a lot more by next Friday. Until then we just have to sweat it out. Fingers crossed.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 7, 2008 22:10:09 GMT -8
We can certainly hope. Although, we don't know whether they are processing early ballots (bottom of the pile) first or late ballots (top of the pile) first.
I've also made a simple statistical calculation to see how much random fluctuations can be with the new ballots. The statistical confidence level right now is more than 90% that Measure R will stand. But this doesn't take into account the systematic trends, such as early versus late ballots, provisional vs. absentee ballots, etc.
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Post by whitmanlam on Nov 8, 2008 0:59:44 GMT -8
Yeah, by the same account Prop 1A could fail as well, but they have almost a 300,000 vote buffer. Hard to break. But not impossible. Most absentee ballots are from senior citizens. Very conservative, penny pinching crowd. On the other hand, if enough provisional ballots are counted to offset the absentee ballots ... it could tilt the vote in favor. However, many provisional ballots are rejected without being verified, and thrown out. It's a scary situation. But it's out of our hands. whatever the outcome is ...
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 8, 2008 14:05:42 GMT -8
Someone pointed out that many absentee and provisional ballots don't have a vote cast on Measure R. This means there are less remaining ballots to consider than I did. So, it looks more encouraging than my calculation, which assumed every unprocessed ballot had a vote cast on Measure R. Estimated remaining ballots according to Daily News: 374,000 Measure R voting rate on the previously processed absentee/provisional ballots according to the same source: 89.13% Estimated remaining votes on Measure R: 333,357 Final outcome assuming the same absentee/provisional-vote trend: 66.83% (66.67% or more is needed) Margin: 4,679 out of 2,898,878 votes or 0.16% Minimum Yes vote required in remaining ballots: 62.45% Previous Yes vote on the absentee/provisional ballots: 63.85% So, although the outlook is better than in my previous calculation, if there is any negative systematic trend, Measure R could easily fail. Note that at this point the statistical chances that Measure R will not hold is negligible (less than 1 in 10,000). This assumes the unprocessed absentee and provisional ballots will be similar to the already processed ones. But any systematic differences between early vs. late and absentee vs. provisional ballots could easily throw off the balance. Perhaps the best is to stop worrying about this and see the outcome when all votes are processed.
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Post by tonyw79sfv on Nov 8, 2008 20:28:14 GMT -8
That's very interesting the East San Fernando Valley voted for Measure R while the West San Fernando Valley went opposite... The East San Fernando Valley, where I'm from, is more heavily Latino, while the West San Fernando Valley tends to be more affluent. The West SFV will be getting an Orange Line extension while the East SFV will only be getting bus speed improvement where there are north/south Metro Rapid lines, like my 761. I still voted in favor of R even if I'm just getting bus speed improvements because I'd like the dense parts of LA (Westside) to be easier to travel using Metro; however, I'm hoping the Sepulveda Pass mystery rapid transit project becomes a rail line as there is a lot of ridership potential in that corridor.
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Post by whitmanlam on Nov 9, 2008 0:58:43 GMT -8
I think the East San Fernando Valley, should get a Red Line extension from North Hollywood. I always thought that was the most overlooked extension. It's not on any future plans .... certainly way behind the Subway to the Sea.
Bus speed improvements would help some. But what good are faster buses if Metro keeps cutting back bus service, hours of operation, and frequency to balance their budget.
Bus service is still very unreliable and sparse. Giving the BRU plenty reason to bash Metro and Measure R (Which actually helps put more buses on the streets.)
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Post by JerardWright on Nov 9, 2008 12:57:25 GMT -8
Well now, with the larger increase in bus funding operations that will help expand bus operations and re-organize some of the badly performing services into more efficient routes.
The main benefit of the Faster buses is that you can get away with fewer buses on a route because they can better stay on a schedule. Which can then shift those buses on other routes without purchasing more buses and operators.
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Post by whitmanlam on Nov 11, 2008 17:04:12 GMT -8
Latest results of Measure R vote.
R - MTA SALES TAX - YES: 1,806,657 ...... 67.23% NO: 880,564 ........ 32.77%
The ballot counting continued on Tuesday. As you can see, the remaining votes tend to favor Measure R. The YES vote actually rose 0.01% with the addition of new ballots.
This means that Measure R is now even more likely to pass. Final results will be known on Friday.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 11, 2008 17:08:09 GMT -8
Yes, Measure R is steady as she goes.
They have just added 121,700 votes to Measure R and it went slightly up from 67.22 to 67.23%. This is a strong indication that there is no systematic trend left in the votes, and the remaining votes will be mostly statistical effects, which are negligible at this point, being at about 0.1% for the remaining votes, and 0.01% for the final result, which should be 67.23 ± 0.01%.
So, this is great news. The people of Los Angeles County, especially those in the low-income and minority areas, have proudly voted for this measure. By doing so they slapped a few self-interest politicians and phony community groups in the face. With an overwhelming 67+% vote, it is now apparent that these politicians and community groups neither represent their own communities nor Los Angeles County in general, and they need to do the honorable thing and step down.
What a major milestone in the history of Los Angeles! This is when the transition from the city known as where everybody drives and nobody walks to a normal metropolitan city starts.
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Post by jejozwik on Nov 11, 2008 17:22:00 GMT -8
lets get those choo-choos going already!
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Post by whitmanlam on Nov 11, 2008 22:12:33 GMT -8
This is when we start choosing our own destiny. Are we going to sit back and do nothing while stagnation, recession, and congestion bleed us dry ?
Or do we do something about it ? I say we try to stay here and solve the problem, instead of moving to another city where the problem doesn't exist ..... yet .
This is our moment to shine. Imagine how many jobs are being axed by the economic slump. Create jobs, get some construction activity going again ........ invest in our future.
That's what Europe and Asia have been doing for decades.... and their economy are much stronger now.
We need the same. We need to catch up.
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Post by metrocenter on Nov 12, 2008 10:52:34 GMT -8
^ I totally agree. Let L.A. lead the way out of this recession. Let's see some leadership!
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Post by erict on Nov 12, 2008 15:02:43 GMT -8
Not to mention that we invented the electric tram/trolley in the first place. Is there a single American company that makes light or heavy rail these days? United Streetcar is the only one I know of.
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Post by whitmanlam on Nov 12, 2008 22:41:57 GMT -8
^ I totally agree. Let L.A. lead the way out of this recession. Let's see some leadership! Yeah it's true, we're the city that started this whole real estate bubble, And the "house flipping" craze that eventually lead to worldwide economic collapse. (Florida also contributed some). Yes, we bear some responsibility to do the right thing. Let's reinvent the modern American city. Let's get moving.... now.
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Post by LAofAnaheim on Nov 13, 2008 8:16:41 GMT -8
Not to get way off-topic...but I don't think you can blame any single city for the mess we are in; the blame goes on the banks and the individuals trying to get impossible loans. Government should have also been on the look out and acted much sooner. But, sorry, I can't have LA be "blamed", when the same situation of house-flipping was done in the outer suburb areas of major metropolitan areas (heck, I know people who did the same in Bloomington, IN!!), and other great top-notch cities, worldwide.
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Post by Dan Wentzel on Nov 13, 2008 12:39:40 GMT -8
This is such wonderful news. Measure R and Prop. 1a passing -- so much to celebrate.
Not only that, but Seattle, my hometown, voted in favor of funding its light rail expansion, as did Honolulu. Something wonderful is happening.
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Post by bobdavis on Nov 13, 2008 17:29:19 GMT -8
I just checked the LA County Registrar-Recorder website. No update since Nov. 11 afternoon. Same percentages.
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Post by masonite on Nov 13, 2008 21:12:07 GMT -8
I just checked the LA County Registrar-Recorder website. No update since Nov. 11 afternoon. Same percentages. They update on Tuesday and Friday afternoons. We should know tomorrow the near-final results. Barring a massive change, we should be good.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 14, 2008 17:04:22 GMT -8
They have added another 59,660 votes since Tuesday and it went up from 67.23 to 67.31%. So, it's good news.
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Post by darrell on Nov 14, 2008 17:32:17 GMT -8
Latest from LA County: R - MTA SALES TAX - YES - 1,848,845 - 67.31% NO - 898,036 - 32.69%
Last Updated: 16:55 11/14/2008 So another 42,188 YES votes and 17,472 NO votes since Tuesday, and the %YES rose from 67.23% to 67.31%.
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Post by kenalpern on Nov 14, 2008 17:39:15 GMT -8
Well, we can see where this is all trending, and it does appear that the Expo and Foothill Gold Lines will be moving forward, and not with one project being pitted against the other.
Because we were in such horrible shape without Proposition R, to some degree we're able not so much to leap forward but to at least avoid going backward.
Next year, the fight shifts to Washington for matching funds.
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Post by Gokhan on Nov 14, 2008 19:18:16 GMT -8
I think the the absentee votes had already been processed before Tuesday and the votes that have been processed since then are provisional votes. Almost all of them might have been processed by now as well, and, if not, they seem to be favoring Measure R anyway. So, it looks like we didn't have any comeback surprise against Measure R.
I think Measure R is a giant leap forward. Without it we would be able to build almost nothing. And it won't even matter that much if we don't get any federal funding for the Measure R projects. But if we get federal funding, then we can build other projects as the funds are freed from Measure R through federal funding. There is a whole list of such projects, anywhere from a Silver Line to a 405 line, an Harbor Subdivision Line to a Vermont Line, converting Orange Line to LRT, and anything on your wish list. That's actually how Measure R will make a difference and will start a revolution of building rail transit in LA.
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