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Post by darrell on Jan 10, 2014 13:22:23 GMT -8
Here are a couple of new inputs to the car availability and opening date question. In a conversation last week Art Leahy suggested some workarounds as the new cars arrive (at 4 per month) including doing pre-revenue testing off-peak when more cars are available and initial short-lining (some trains turn back short of the full route) while demand builds and cars arrive. Metro's goal once the Regional Connector opens is 5-minute headways on each branch.
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 10, 2014 13:38:11 GMT -8
Here are a couple of new inputs to the car availability and opening date question. In a conversation last week Art Leahy suggested some workarounds as the new cars arrive (at 4 per month) including doing pre-revenue testing off-peak when more cars are available and initial short-lining (some trains turn back short of the full route) while demand builds and cars arrive. Metro's goal once the Regional Connector opens is 5-minute headways on each branch. This conversation is telling us that Metro's goal is to open the line in 2015, not in 2016. Again, 9 and only 9 additional running cars -- not a single more and not a single less -- are needed to run Expo Phase 2 with the current 12-minute headways. They will need a few spares though, at least 1 and more optimally 3. At the rate of 4 cars per month, it sounds like they will start receiving them at the end of June. That way Kinkisharyo will have delivered the 28 cars they promised to deliver in 2015. So, by August 31, 2015, Expo Line will have enough cars. Prerevenue operation doesn't start until the last month. However, operators need to be trained. Perhaps this could take a couple of months. So, it looks like the line can open as early as in September 2015 and I am being pessimistic with my November estimate. Also, in my private conversation, I was told by Skanska/Rados that they could finish it as early as in May 2015, two months ahead of the July 10, 2015, contract date for the substantial completion.
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 12, 2014 19:59:14 GMT -8
My updated personal current estimate for ROD is: Saturday, November 14, 2015.
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Post by TransportationZ on Jan 12, 2014 20:54:21 GMT -8
Here are a couple of new inputs to the car availability and opening date question. In a conversation last week Art Leahy suggested some workarounds as the new cars arrive (at 4 per month) including doing pre-revenue testing off-peak when more cars are available and initial short-lining (some trains turn back short of the full route) while demand builds and cars arrive. Metro's goal once the Regional Connector opens is 5-minute headways on each branch. This conversation is telling us that Metro's goal is to open the line in 2015, not in 2016. Again, 9 and only 9 additional running cars -- not a single more and not a single less -- are needed to run Expo Phase 2 with the current 12-minute headways. They will need a few spares though, at least 1 and more optimally 3. At the rate of 4 cars per month, it sounds like they will start receiving them at the end of June. That way Kinkisharyo will have delivered the 28 cars they promised to deliver in 2015. So, by August 31, 2015, Expo Line will have enough cars. Prerevenue operation doesn't start until the last month. However, operators need to be trained. Perhaps this could take a couple of months. So, it looks like the line can open as early as in September 2015 and I am being pessimistic with my November estimate. Also, in my private conversation, I was told by Skanska/Rados that they could finish it as early as in May 2015, two months ahead of the July 10, 2015, contract date for the substantial completion. I agree. I initially was going for 2016, but this contractor is simply fantastic. December of 2013 and they were already laying tracks and putting in grade crossings. With no more legal issues, there is no reason this line shouldn't be mostly done by next New Years.
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Post by bzcat on Jan 13, 2014 11:33:54 GMT -8
I'm sticking with my September 2015 prediction
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Post by Gokhan on Jan 21, 2014 16:23:43 GMT -8
The guessing period will end at the end of February 2014, as the Phase 2 opening is already in sight now.
My guess: Saturday, November 14, 2015.
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Post by culvercitylocke on Jan 21, 2014 18:32:28 GMT -8
What's the weather contingency built into the construction timeline? I feel like part of the progress is that we've been so dry the past year, and with no rain possible until mid-late february, we might have a surprising productive 'rainy season' So taking out the days of the weather contingency to get a minimum would be prudent, I would think.
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Post by joshuanickel on Jan 21, 2014 18:57:29 GMT -8
I will say Saturday December 5th, 2015 as the Grand Opening. This is my final guess.
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Post by John Ryan on Mar 13, 2014 10:12:32 GMT -8
zev.lacounty.gov/news/looming-train-shortage-at-metroAs two Los Angeles light rail lines race toward completion, there’s trouble ahead on the tracks. Unless train car production can be significantly accelerated, there won’t be enough vehicles to serve both new lines—Phase 2 of the Expo Line to Santa Monica and the Gold Line Foothill Extension to Azusa—if they open as scheduled in late 2015 and early 2016 respectively. Metro is so concerned about the problem that it’s dispatching a delegation to the manufacturer’s headquarters in Japan later this month in hopes of finding a way to speed up production—a tall order for a company that the agency acknowledges is on track with the aggressive schedule mutually agreed to under its contract. So, with a likely initial shortfall of about 50 train cars, the issue presents some tough decisions for Metro, all of which are likely to be unpopular with the traveling public. It could delay the new lines’ openings, operate them with shorter, more crowded trains, offer less frequent service, or redeploy cars from elsewhere in the system, thus spreading the pain more broadly.
The shortage is expected to be most severe in the first months of operation for the two new extensions, with steady improvements coming as new rail cars arrive throughout 2016. But even the prospect of a relatively short-lived disruption has been enough to strain the relationship between Metro, which will operate the lines, and the two construction authorities charged with successfully completing the projects. Samantha Bricker, chief operating officer for the Exposition Light Rail Construction Authority, expects Expo Phase 2 to be ready for testing in the summer of 2015, which would make it possible for the line—running from Culver City to Santa Monica— to serve the public as early as December, 2015. But she’s worried that the train car shortage could impede that schedule and disappoint passengers looking forward to jumping aboard the westernmost phase of a light rail line that’s already attracting large numbers of riders. “If these projects are done on time and there are no trains there, the public is going to go nuts,” Bricker predicted. Metro’s Gold Line Foothill Extension, running from Pasadena to Azusa, is expected to open just two months later. Habib Balian, chief executive officer of the Foothill Construction Authority, said he, too, is worried that his line’s opening will be delayed or marred by diminished service in the early months. “It’s going to sit there and cobwebs are going to grow until Metro starts service, or they are going to put wimpy service on all the rail lines,” Balian said, referring to the possibility of importing rail cars from elsewhere in the system. The roots of the problem go back to 2010, when a previous manufacturer, AnsaldoBreda Inc., failed to meet the specifications for an earlier order of Gold Line cars, according to Richard Hunt, who manages Metro’s rail car procurements. Given the time crunch, Metro’s chief executive officer, Art Leahy, urged Board members to act quickly and, in April, 2012, after a competitive bidding process, the Board awarded a new contract to another company, Kinkisharyo International, LLC. After Kinkisharyo landed the contract, it relocated its U.S. headquarters from Boston to El Segundo and is currently building a facility in Palmdale where the final assembly of the Metro rail cars will take place. Metro officials say they are confident that Kinkisharyo can deliver, but due to the time lost after parting ways with AnsaldoBreda, the process is now a year behind schedule. No easy solutions are apparent, but Metro is brainstorming fixes and contingency plans, said Brian Boudreau, an executive officer who oversees major capital projects. All options remain on the table. On March 27, Metro Board Chair Diane DuBois and Pam O’Connor, chair of the Expo Authority and a member of Metro’s Board of Directors, will join Hunt on a delegation to Kinkisharyo’s headquarters in Osaka, Japan to check on the progress and see if anything else can be done. Hunt said the agency already has submitted a formal request to Kinkisharyo to speed delivery, but acknowledged that the prospects of that are slim. Kinkisharyo’s president, Teiji Tani, agreed. “The schedule that Kinkisharyo International and Metro agreed to was and is very aggressive,” Tani said in an email. “Given the challenges we have been facing, it’s unlikely that the schedule can be accelerated on the initial 78-car order.” The current contract calls for delivery of 78 light rail vehicles at a price of $299 million, with options for additional cars for Metro’s expanding light rail network that could bring the total value of the contract to $890 million. The agreement includes what Hunt called an “unprecedented” delivery schedule—about twice as fast as normal. Kinkisharyo agreed to deliver the first 78 cars at a rate of 4 per month, beginning in September, 2015. The final four cars wouldn’t arrive until January 20, 2017, about a year after the rail lines are expected to open. Metro’s chief of operations, Debra Johnson, demurred on the question of how big the impact on transit riders could be, but said that “all options have to be assessed.” “Here we are, stewards of the taxpayers, and we are going to do our due diligence to make sure they are least-impacted,” Johnson said. Metro’s Board of Directors is scheduled to get a status update on the situation in April, including feedback from the delegation to Japan as well as contingency plans for running the lines without all the cars. In the meantime, Kinkisharyo officials say they are keeping things moving as fast as possible. “We are finalizing design, setting up our assembly plant in Palmdale and starting to produce the initial two cars, also known as test cars,” Tani said. “We’ll soon start hiring 100 additional employees for that plant.”
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 13, 2014 11:01:32 GMT -8
It's OK. They only need 9 new rail cars for Expo initially, which will be delivered by August 2015 or so. The ridership is currently very low anyway and 12-minute headways will barely pack the 3-car trains when Phase 2 opens.
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Post by bzcat on Mar 13, 2014 15:11:16 GMT -8
But still not enough cars for both Expo 2 and Gold line Foothill to operate at current frequencies. Either Metro operates the Gold line with a short line (e.g. some trains terminates at Sierra Madre Villa and doesn't go on to Azusa) or some existing line frequency has to be cut to have enough rail cars.
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Post by culvercitylocke on Mar 13, 2014 16:56:29 GMT -8
well let's hope expo opens first then.
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Post by usmc1401 on Mar 13, 2014 20:44:23 GMT -8
San Diego is going to retire more U2 cars. Can Los Angeles buy or lease some of these cars.
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Post by bobdavis on Mar 14, 2014 1:30:14 GMT -8
San Diego cars are not designed for high-platform loading. Chicago is replacing some of their older "L" cars; these would probably fit the LA loading gauge, but they'd have be modified for compatibility with the train-control systems, and have overhead current collectors added.
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 14, 2014 9:15:42 GMT -8
Zev's recent blog is exaggerating the problem and overly pessimistic.
Currently Metro has only enough LRVs to operate the existing lines. This means they cannot open the extensions before they receive new LRVs (to be made by Kinkisharyo).
However, on the positive side, if they keep the existing headways, they only need 9 new LRVs to operate the Expo Phase 2 (Santa Monica) extension and 14 new LRVs to operate the Gold Line Phase 2A (Azusa) extension. This means Expo Line can open at the end of August 2015 and Gold Line can open at the end of November 2015 maintaining the current headways and train sets (12 min, 3-car and 6-min, 2-car for Expo and Gold, respectively).
Kinkisharyo will have delivered 28 new LRVs by the end of 2015, which is more than enough to open both Expo and Gold Lines before the end of 2015. They will deliver 4 - 5 LRVs a month, starting in June. Expo Line should open as early as August 2015 and Gold Line should open as early as November 2015.
Note that the ridership on the Expo Line is currently very low, only 28,000 boardings a day, comparable to some of our busy bus lines. I ride the train to work everyday and you can always find a seat even during the peak hours. This means 12-minute headways with 3-car trains should be sufficient during the initial months of the Santa Monica extension. Likewise, 6-minute headways with 2-car trains should be sufficient for the Gold Line Azusa extension during the initial months.
PS: This is the formula to calculate number of trains needed (multiply this by number of cars per train to get number of cars needed):
round-trip time + dead time at the origin + dead time at the terminus = number of trains x one-way headway
round-trip time: round-trip travel time from the origin to the terminus and then back dead time at the origin: time an arriving train spends at the origin before its scheduled departure (usually about half the one-way headway) dead time at the terminus: time an arriving train spends at the terminus before its scheduled departure (usually about half the one-way headway) one-way headway: time before the next train in the same direction on the schedule
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Post by bzcat on Mar 14, 2014 10:55:12 GMT -8
Let's hope your optimistic estimate on train delivery actually happens.
I actually don't know the answer so this is a real question: What testing or prep, if any, will Metro need to do after they accept delivery? And how long does that take? I assume they can't just accept delivery today and start using the trains tomorrow. And by testing, I don't mean the Expo line pre-revenue test. That's an entirely different subject. I'm talking about the new train testing - I assume Metro will take several months to do system tests on the new trains before they put them on revenue tracks. Metro received the new New Flyer buses 3 months ago and is just starting to roll them out into revenue service... new trains will probably take longer than new buses to prep/test?
So let say we get 4 cars a month starting in June 2015... that means we will have 16 cars by the end of September 2015. How many of them will be available for revenue service?
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 14, 2014 11:01:37 GMT -8
Let's hope your optimistic estimate on train delivery actually happens. I actually don't know the answer so this is a real question: What testing or prep, if any, will Metro need to do after they accept delivery? And how long does that take? I assume they can't just accept delivery today and start using the trains tomorrow. And by testing, I don't mean the Expo line pre-revenue test. That's an entirely different subject. I'm talking about the new train testing - I assume Metro will take several months to do system tests on the new trains before they put them on revenue tracks. Metro received the new New Flyer buses 3 months ago and is just starting to roll them out into revenue service... new trains will probably take longer than new buses to prep/test? So let say we get 4 cars a month starting in June 2015... that means we will have 16 cars by the end of September 2015. How many of them will be available for revenue service? Well, according to Bart Reed, break-in/burn-in for the new LRVs is only 90 days and they can be put to revenue service after that. This puts the earliest Expo opening day around October and Gold opening day around January.
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Post by masonite on Mar 14, 2014 16:20:51 GMT -8
Let's hope your optimistic estimate on train delivery actually happens. I actually don't know the answer so this is a real question: What testing or prep, if any, will Metro need to do after they accept delivery? And how long does that take? I assume they can't just accept delivery today and start using the trains tomorrow. And by testing, I don't mean the Expo line pre-revenue test. That's an entirely different subject. I'm talking about the new train testing - I assume Metro will take several months to do system tests on the new trains before they put them on revenue tracks. Metro received the new New Flyer buses 3 months ago and is just starting to roll them out into revenue service... new trains will probably take longer than new buses to prep/test? So let say we get 4 cars a month starting in June 2015... that means we will have 16 cars by the end of September 2015. How many of them will be available for revenue service? Well, according to Bart Reed, break-in/burn-in for the new LRVs is only 90 days and they can be put to revenue service after that. This puts the earliest Expo opening day around October and Gold opening day around January. According to Zev's blog, the first cars (other than the test cars) are not due until Sept. 2015 per the contract at which time they arrive 4 a month. That is a big difference from the June assumed.
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Post by Gokhan on Mar 14, 2014 18:12:01 GMT -8
According to Zev's blog, the first cars (other than the test cars) are not due until Sept. 2015 per the contract at which time they arrive 4 a month. That is a big difference from the June assumed. That can't be correct. The P3010 contract requires Kinkisharyo to deliver 28 cars by the end of 2015.
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Post by roadtrainer on Mar 14, 2014 18:35:58 GMT -8
] RTD borrowed buses for the 84 Olympics, so why don't Metro borrow or lease some car sets from other Muni's? Some of you guys know the roosters of the other Muni's. So speculate how many can San Jose, SFMR, and San Diego loan or lease to Metro?
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Post by antonio on Mar 14, 2014 21:40:33 GMT -8
The problem with those other agencies is that they use low floor cars (or in SF's case a mix of high and low floor boarding). The Muni cars can be used on our light rail lines but I know their Bredas had numerous problems for years upon delivery from the late 90's to early 2000s and the dual boarding protocol; I don't know if those are solved now but I think they are trying to increase capacity and order new cars for the Central Subway project plus the dual platform height requirement makes awkward use of space at the front of cars. If we look elsewhere around the country, almost all other light rail operators use low-floor boarding so that leaves us with Buffalo and St. Louis who use high-platforms and use cars similar to the second generation San Diego cars (I think Buffalo's cars are unique though). Both of these cities likely have excess capacity. If we want some older U2 rolling stock why not try the Canadian cities? Calgary and Edmonton both used the Siemens U2s and have high-floor boarding. I think their car demands are higher though because they run 4-car train and I know Calgary's system is a workhorse but maybe they would let the older cars go.
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Post by bobdavis on Mar 16, 2014 20:20:38 GMT -8
I doubt that SF Muni has any spare LRVs to lease or loan; not sure about St. Louis. One problem with any "foreign" LRVs is the type of speed and safety stop control systems. I know Chicago has a speed control system that "over-reacts" and has trains creeping along when there's nothing in front of them. It's not like the old days when they could just unload a second-hand streetcar off the flatcar, put up the pole, get the air up and start running.
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Post by bzcat on Mar 17, 2014 10:47:35 GMT -8
Borrowing LRV is not like borrowing buses... It's a little more complicated. LRV has to be trucked in... buses can be driven here. And LRV has to be tested on our signal system and tracks/switches so it will take months (90 days?) and cost a lot of money. It's not really worth the cost/time in my opinion.
Also, if 90 days break-in/test period is correct for new trains, that means we definitely will not have enough LRV to begin service on both lines until 2016. I think Zev's article is pretty accurate in that sense.
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Post by skater on Mar 18, 2014 14:25:21 GMT -8
Borrowing LRV is not like borrowing buses... It's a little more complicated. LRV has to be trucked in... buses can be driven here. And LRV has to be tested on our signal system and tracks/switches so it will take months (90 days?) and cost a lot of money. It's not really worth the cost/time in my opinion. Also, if 90 days break-in/test period is correct for new trains, that means we definitely will not have enough LRV to begin service on both lines until 2016. I think Zev's article is pretty accurate in that sense. perhaps not just borrowing, but buying, refurbishing, and keeping some old LRVs from another system may be necessary... If those systems have some older cars they are willing to sell, it should still be faster than building entirely new LRVs, but as far as I know this isn't planned.... perhaps running two car trains on the expo line would work? but isnt that a problem because an expo line train may be a blue line train on it's next trip?
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Post by bzcat on Mar 18, 2014 15:21:26 GMT -8
Borrowing LRV is not like borrowing buses... It's a little more complicated. LRV has to be trucked in... buses can be driven here. And LRV has to be tested on our signal system and tracks/switches so it will take months (90 days?) and cost a lot of money. It's not really worth the cost/time in my opinion. Also, if 90 days break-in/test period is correct for new trains, that means we definitely will not have enough LRV to begin service on both lines until 2016. I think Zev's article is pretty accurate in that sense. perhaps not just borrowing, but buying, refurbishing, and keeping some old LRVs from another system may be necessary... If those systems have some older cars they are willing to sell, it should still be faster than building entirely new LRVs, but as far as I know this isn't planned.... perhaps running two car trains on the expo line would work? but isnt that a problem because an expo line train may be a blue line train on it's next trip? I think there is a lot of challenges with buying or borrowing old trains from other agencies. Where are we going to get money to buy or rent these old LRV? It's not budgeted so right off the bat, we are talking about fantasy money. And the cost to refurbish them and bring the electronics up to date to work with our systems is not going to be cheap. Assuming there is miracle money just waiting to be spent on used LRV, it will take a long time and it won't help with our LRV shortage. Metro is currently refurbishing the oldest original Nippon Sharyo P865/P2020 trains to extend their lives and it takes the train out of service for up to 6 months. And that's for trains that already runs on our systems. Metro can't even switch trains from line to line so don't expect LRVs from other places will just magically work Assuming we can find old LRV for sale, there is basically no possible way that we can have it refurbished and have the control system replaced, and full safety testing done in 18 months. This is all public contracts that needs to be bid out and it will take years to complete. And according to this article, it costs Metro $130 million to refurbish another 52 LRVs: thesource.metro.net/2014/01/08/metro-blue-line-receiving-a-1-2-billion-overhaul/ I'm assuming that's the existing Siemens P2000 trains... so it cost $2.5 million a piece just to refurbish it and no need to change the control system. How much will it cost if we have to change the control system, which will be the case with LRV from another transit agency? It will cost a lot more to buy used LRVs and convert them to work on our systems. And at this point, it will take just a long, and perhaps just as much money as a new LRV so there is really no point.
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Post by skater on Mar 19, 2014 8:20:40 GMT -8
^ thanks for the explanation
can someone elaborate on this "Metro can't even switch trains from line to line"
as far as I know blue/expo an green are all interchangeable (non-revenue connector between green and blue lines, correct?) so the gold line would be the only sperate system.... but when the regional connecter comes in, how would that work... all LRT lines would be connected (some indirectly)... the difference is in the elcetrical or ATP systems?
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Post by bzcat on Mar 19, 2014 10:26:42 GMT -8
It takes a fair amount of reprogramming to switch LRV from one Metro line to another. That's why we had so much issue with train controls on Expo Phase 1 during the pre-revenue testing and the initial months of operation. Those LRV were programmed to run on Blue line and were not playing nice with the control system and electronic signals on the Expo line. It takes months of testing and reprogramming to get it running smoothly.
The non-revenue connector between Blue and Green line exists but that doesn't mean the LRV can perform revenue service without reprogramming. The LRV has to be programmed for both Green and Blue lines like they are for Expo and Blue line.
If we want to take LRV from Gold line or Green line to run on Expo/Blue and vice versa, it will take a couple of days minimum to reprogram the computers and safety test them after hours.
When the regional connector opens, there will be a lot of work to reprogram ALL the trains on Blue/Expo/Gold to make sure they are compatible with the control systems on various branches. There will be a long and complicated testing period where Metro will run empty trains from one line to another.
Same with Green line LRV when Crenshaw line opens.
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Post by skater on Mar 19, 2014 16:34:36 GMT -8
It takes a fair amount of reprogramming to switch LRV from one Metro line to another. That's why we had so much issue with train controls on Expo Phase 1 during the pre-revenue testing and the initial months of operation. Those LRV were programmed to run on Blue line and were not playing nice with the control system and electronic signals on the Expo line. It takes months of testing and reprogramming to get it running smoothly. The non-revenue connector between Blue and Green line exists but that doesn't mean the LRV can perform revenue service without reprogramming. The LRV has to be programmed for both Green and Blue lines like they are for Expo and Blue line. If we want to take LRV from Gold line or Green line to run on Expo/Blue and vice versa, it will take a couple of days minimum to reprogram the computers and safety test them after hours. When the regional connector opens, there will be a lot of work to reprogram ALL the trains on Blue/Expo/Gold to make sure they are compatible with the control systems on various branches. There will be a long and complicated testing period where Metro will run empty trains from one line to another. Same with Green line LRV when Crenshaw line opens. so they need to be reprogrammed to account for the speed limit in different sections of track, automatic station announcments and that sort of thing? this also needs to happen when adding a new extension to an exsisting line?
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Post by bzcat on Mar 20, 2014 10:04:27 GMT -8
so they need to be reprogrammed to account for the speed limit in different sections of track, automatic station announcments and that sort of thing? this also needs to happen when adding a new extension to an exsisting line? Yes, you got the basic idea now. It's not as simple as taking a bus from one line and putting it on another line. Federal law also requires a series of safety test runs on each LRV before you can perform revenue service.
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Post by skater on Mar 20, 2014 13:39:43 GMT -8
so they need to be reprogrammed to account for the speed limit in different sections of track, automatic station announcments and that sort of thing? this also needs to happen when adding a new extension to an exsisting line? Yes, you got the basic idea now. It's not as simple as taking a bus from one line and putting it on another line. Federal law also requires a series of safety test runs on each LRV before you can perform revenue service. at first i thought the voltage in the different lines might be different or something and maybe that the LRVs had to physically be modified... so during the testing period for a new line or extension... a lot of testing is for the LRV/ATP programming for the new route and not really clearances,driver training etc.? each LRV need to be modfied when an extension opens? but is the program the same for identical LRVs? is that why introducing a foreign LRV of a new model is such a hastle? soory for all the question, but im really curious on this..
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