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Post by Gokhan on Mar 24, 2014 13:27:35 GMT -8
Metro is currently refurbishing the oldest original Nippon Sharyo P865/P2020 trains to extend their lives and it takes the train out of service for up to 6 months. 6 weeks, not 6 months, according to expolinefan.
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 1, 2014 10:51:11 GMT -8
As usual, more incompetence from Expo Authority. How come they didn't know that ATP was required at the maintenance facility? It's nonsense that they claim they knew but wanted to omit it so that it could be built faster. Now that this is coming at a late stage, it will really delay the completion of the maintenance facility. www.buildexpo.org/wp-content/uploads/ITEM-6.a-APRIL-2014-R2.pdf
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Post by joemagruder on Apr 1, 2014 12:44:54 GMT -8
It's hard to understand why ATP is needed in a maintenance facility. I can see why the Expo Authority would have had trouble believing that it was a real requirement.
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 1, 2014 12:55:44 GMT -8
It's hard to understand why ATP is needed in a maintenance facility. I can see why the Expo Authority would have had trouble believing that it was a real requirement. Not hard at all -- it's full of crossovers there and very easy to have train collisions without interlocks. They should have checked with Metro first. Assumption is the mother of all bungles -- quoting from the movie Under Siege 2: Dark Territory (1995), which ironically takes place on a train:
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Post by crzwdjk on Apr 1, 2014 21:45:48 GMT -8
Requiring ATP in a yard is a little bit ridiculous, as evidenced by the fact that most yards don't have it, including Metro's existing rail yards. Speeds are low, and there are far more hazards that are best seen by looking out the window, and where one of the more common types of accident inherently can't be prevented by a "vital train control system", because coupling two trains requires bringing them together and effectively colliding one into the other (albeit normally at a very low speed).
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Apr 24, 2014 11:33:40 GMT -8
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Post by Gokhan on Apr 24, 2014 11:40:40 GMT -8
In a silly manner, they even got the order wrong. Expo Phase 2 will open before the Gold Line Foothill extension, not after. I don't expect Expo to open any later than April 2016. Foothill extension should open in Summer 2016.
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Post by andert on Apr 24, 2014 12:40:25 GMT -8
I think it's incredibly important for Expo II to open a few months before Nov 2016, because I think its success will play a huge role in swinging public opinion for the proposed 2016 ballot measure.
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Post by simonla on Apr 24, 2014 13:03:28 GMT -8
Curbed is just reporting what's on the technical report of the short range transpo draft. It says 12/2016 for Expo II opening. Maybe they're under-promising with the date to avoid Phase I nightmares.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Apr 24, 2014 13:16:35 GMT -8
Curbed is just reporting what's on the technical report of the short range transpo draft. It says 12/2016 for Expo II opening. Maybe they're under-promising with the date to avoid Phase I nightmares. Well if you're titling your documents "We're delivering on our promises" as Metro has --then perhaps that's exactly what they're up to! If they are under-promising then I gotta wonder by how much? 3 months? 6 months? Either way it's shaping up be well beyond the expectations of many in this thread as the poll numbers amply demonstrate. Oh well.
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Post by bzcat on Apr 24, 2014 15:31:00 GMT -8
Curbed is just reporting what's on the technical report of the short range transpo draft. It says 12/2016 for Expo II opening. Maybe they're under-promising with the date to avoid Phase I nightmares. Actually curbed just made it up. The Metro document says Expo II will open in Fiscal Year 2016, nothing about which month. FY2016 is from July 1 2015 to June 30 2016. This corresponds with our understanding that Expo and Gold Line will both open before end of calendar year 2015. Edit: It could also be that the report is assuming worst case scenario where we end up using all the remaining contingency left in the schedule, which would be the line will open sometime around March 2016. The project is currently ahead of schedule so there is no reason to think we will need the remaining 6 months contingency. Either way, there is no mention of 12/2016 anywhere in the report. Curbed just made it up.
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Post by simonla on Apr 24, 2014 16:30:36 GMT -8
Curbed is just reporting what's on the technical report of the short range transpo draft. It says 12/2016 for Expo II opening. Maybe they're under-promising with the date to avoid Phase I nightmares. Actually curbed just made it up. The Metro document says Expo II will open in Fiscal Year 2016, nothing about which month. FY2016 is from July 1 2015 to June 30 2016. This corresponds with our understanding that Expo and Gold Line will both open before end of calendar year 2015. Edit: It could also be that the report is assuming worst case scenario where we end up using all the remaining contingency left in the schedule, which would be the line will open sometime around March 2016. The project is currently ahead of schedule so there is no reason to think we will need the remaining 6 months contingency. Either way, there is no mention of 12/2016 anywhere in the report. Curbed just made it up. Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's on page 18, clear as day: media.metro.net/projects_studies/srtp/1srtp_technical_doc_bg.pdf
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Post by joshuanickel on Apr 24, 2014 17:31:15 GMT -8
Actually curbed just made it up. The Metro document says Expo II will open in Fiscal Year 2016, nothing about which month. FY2016 is from July 1 2015 to June 30 2016. This corresponds with our understanding that Expo and Gold Line will both open before end of calendar year 2015. Edit: It could also be that the report is assuming worst case scenario where we end up using all the remaining contingency left in the schedule, which would be the line will open sometime around March 2016. The project is currently ahead of schedule so there is no reason to think we will need the remaining 6 months contingency. Either way, there is no mention of 12/2016 anywhere in the report. Curbed just made it up. Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's on page 18, clear as day: media.metro.net/projects_studies/srtp/1srtp_technical_doc_bg.pdfThe November 2016 date was the date metro was using when they included a huge contingency in case something went wrong. Back in January, the expo board cut the contingency in half due to the amount of progress on the line: Phase 2 Schedule Contingency Reduction Expo Substantial Completion Date: July 10,2015 Date With full 100% contingency: November 6, 2016 New Date with 50% contingency: May 22, 2016 Due note that expo is pushing for competition by the original July 2015 date which would go along with Metro board reports that have it opening in January 2016 with a potential earlier opening date: Oral report on Program Project Budget and Schedule Status
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Post by simonla on Apr 24, 2014 17:42:45 GMT -8
The November 2016 date was the date metro was using when they included a huge contingency in case something went wrong. Back in January, the expo board cut the contingency in half due to the amount of progress on the line: Phase 2 Schedule Contingency Reduction Expo Substantial Completion Date: July 10,2015 Date With full 100% contingency: November 6, 2016 New Date with 50% contingency: May 22, 2016 Due note that expo is pushing for competition by the original July 2015 date which would go along with Metro board reports that have it opening in January 2016 with a potential earlier opening date: Oral report on Program Project Budget and Schedule StatusWell, apparently someone at Metro is still holding on to the contingency dates, as they are part of the Short Term Transportation Plan, which they're having community meetings for now.
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Post by joshuanickel on Apr 24, 2014 18:24:51 GMT -8
The November 2016 date was the date metro was using when they included a huge contingency in case something went wrong. Back in January, the expo board cut the contingency in half due to the amount of progress on the line: Phase 2 Schedule Contingency Reduction Expo Substantial Completion Date: July 10,2015 Date With full 100% contingency: November 6, 2016 New Date with 50% contingency: May 22, 2016 Due note that expo is pushing for competition by the original July 2015 date which would go along with Metro board reports that have it opening in January 2016 with a potential earlier opening date: Oral report on Program Project Budget and Schedule StatusWell, apparently someone at Metro is still holding on to the contingency dates, as they are part of the Short Term Transportation Plan, which they're having community meetings for now. The plan is currently in its draft form. After the meetings they will go back and make any changes that need to be made in the final version.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Apr 24, 2014 20:02:37 GMT -8
The plan is currently in its draft form. After the meetings they will go back and make any changes that need to be made in the final version. A "promise" in draft form. Only in America.
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Post by masonite on Apr 25, 2014 7:11:12 GMT -8
The plan is currently in its draft form. After the meetings they will go back and make any changes that need to be made in the final version. A "promise" in draft form. Only in America. Not sure where you are getting that this is a promise document, but you are misinterpreting it. It is a planning document required by the FTA. The last Long Range Plan took several years to finalize. Not all the projects in the Plan will necessarily be built. The projects have to be in the Plan to have any chance to be built, but some may not be built. It is still possible that the Purple Line won't be built if it doesn't get federal funds or the lawsuit against it goes through. As far as construction, this is not the place to be tracking progress. The Construction Committee documents are for this as they have current detailed info. A document like this is probably only going to have general placeholders.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on Apr 25, 2014 7:45:35 GMT -8
A "promise" in draft form. Only in America. Not sure where you are getting that this is a promise document, but you are misinterpreting it.... I'm being snarky. The cover of the document is adorned with large type proclaiming "We're delivering on our promises". As noted, on the same cover, it is a draft.
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Post by masonite on Apr 25, 2014 12:09:25 GMT -8
Not sure where you are getting that this is a promise document, but you are misinterpreting it.... I'm being snarky. The cover of the document is adorned with large type proclaiming "We're delivering on our promises". As noted, on the same cover, it is a draft. Got you. I do hear people talking about how some official had some idea and then 5 years later they say this was promised. I do think Metro makes a mistake in putting the promise language on its materials to your point though.
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Post by Gokhan on May 3, 2014 11:41:45 GMT -8
My latest guess: Saturday, July 25, 2015, with 10-minute headways and 3-car trains using the existing rolling stock of Nippon Sharyo's and Siemens'.
10 trains (30 cars) will be needed from LA to SM -- 4 more trains (12 more cars) than for 12-minute headways from LA to CC.
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Post by RMoses on May 5, 2014 10:15:52 GMT -8
My latest guess: Saturday, July 25, 2015, with 10-minute headways and 3-car trains using the existing rolling stock of Nippon Sharyo's and Siemens'. 10 trains (30 cars) will be needed from LA to SM -- 4 more trains (12 more cars) than for 12-minute headways from LA to CC. Just lock the poll already or the votes become meaningless as everyone keeps changing their votes.
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Post by Gokhan on May 5, 2014 11:55:19 GMT -8
OK, two-week notice: I'll lock the poll on May 20.
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Post by metrocenter on May 5, 2014 13:58:44 GMT -8
My optimism is tempered by our history of rail project deliveries.
Yes I know, "Every project is different and every contractor is different".
I'm guessing early 2016. But I'll be happy to be proven wrong. I know some good bars in Downtown Santa Monica that I'd like to visit via light rail, sooner rather than later.
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Post by joshuanickel on May 5, 2014 20:06:56 GMT -8
I will stick with October-December 2015. My reasoning is that while we know that Skanska/Rados is ahead of schedule, we don't know what will happen with Kiewit and the Maintenance Facility which is a different contract.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on May 6, 2014 7:50:56 GMT -8
Gonna hold with March 2016. I appreciate the optimism expressed by many here yet my inner skeptic --and what I'm seeing with my own two eyes--prevails.
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Post by simonla on May 6, 2014 8:03:02 GMT -8
Gonna hold with March 2016. I appreciate the optimism expressed by many here yet my inner skeptic --and what I'm seeing with my own two eyes--prevails. Have to agree. I live near Barrington and it looks like a war zone there. And they have not laid tracks through this major intersection yet. I'm hearing that most of the work now will not be visible as most of the visible work is complete. That seems very off. Been to the downtown Santa Monica station, recently?
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Post by Gokhan on May 6, 2014 9:15:54 GMT -8
Perception and reality are different things.
Skanska engineer I talked to is always on the field and very familiar with the project. He was entirely confident that they will be able to hand over the line to Metro by April - May 2015 and most of the construction will be finished in December 2014. They will tie the loose ends in early 2015. There are no delays associated with the project and they don't expect any.
There is a definite schedule they are following. You know how it goes -- if the schedule says grade-crossing signals will be installed at Overland Ave on November 12, 2014, they will be installed on November 12, 2014, as these things take months of planning. Once they go through the schedule, everything will be finished -- according to that schedule.
This is known as construction management, and Skanska is really good at it.
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Post by metrocenter on May 6, 2014 9:41:56 GMT -8
There is a definite schedule they are following. You know how it goes -- if the schedule says grade-crossing signals will be installed at Overland Ave on November 12, 2014, they will be installed on November 12, 2014, as these things take months of planning. Once they go through the schedule, everything will be finished -- according to that schedule. All tasks will be completed on the scheduled date - except when they aren't. Having a definite schedule is necessary but not sufficient. We all know the history of construction projects. On big projects like this, there are thousands of issues along a project's critical path which can throw off the schedule by days or weeks. As a project manager myself (on a much smaller scale, of course), my main job is to identify issues and mitigate the risks they pose. These issues arise from just about everywhere: not just poor planning and execution, but from dependencies on external sources (e.g., vendors, utilities, bureaucracy, funding, legal, weather, etc.). There are no guarantees, even with a schedule in hand. Skanska is certainly one of America's best construction contractors - they're working on the 2nd Avenue Subway in NYC, and just won the Regional Connector contract here. But in a project of this size, you can never be certain.
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Post by Gokhan on May 6, 2014 11:10:59 GMT -8
Don't forget that Skanska hasn't had a single schedule slip so far and the project is already 65% completed.
The most likely time when something doesn't work is during the train testing. If there is a problem with the clearances, tracks, OCS, communication cables, train controls, signals, etc., this could take a long time to fix. Therefore, early 2015, when they are wrapping things up and starting train testing, will be the most critical time period.
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f ron
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Post by f ron on May 6, 2014 11:28:58 GMT -8
Surely the Pico crossing counts as a schedule slip, yes? Or has that component caught up to original timing expectations?
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